NAP RECORD: 9-4.
OVERALL RECORD: 102-114-4.
TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: +20.30 points.
WEEK 14 TNF RECORD: 0-1.
WEEK 14 TNF PROFIT/LOSS: -1.
The Raiders suck. Say it back. Looking ahead to this Sunday, I hope it’s a day for the favourites…
Week 14 Bets:
Houston Texans @ Dallas Cowboys: Cowboys -17 (NAP) 2 points @ 10/11
No spread is big enough when facing the Texans. Especially when the red-hot Cowboys are playing at home. The Cowboys put 54 on the Colts last week and the bookies think that Dallas won’t beat Houston by more than 17. Get a grip. This is going to be a massacre. The Texans are also without Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins and arguably their best defensive player, Derek Stingley. I wouldn’t be surprised if this spread continues to get bigger, right up until game time.
Philadelphia Eagles @ NY Giants: Eagles -6.5, 1.5 points @ 10/11
Divisional matches are always closer, but there ain’t nothing close about these two teams. The Eagles are 5-0 away from home and a league leading 11-1. Jalen Hurts is firmly in the conversation for MVP and has the offence operating at a truly elite level. The Philly defence is third in terms of points scored and offensive DVOA. They are a physical powerhouse and should have no problem running all over the NY defence. Literally. The Giants’ run defence is pretty weak and sits at 26th in the rushing yards allowed rankings. Things aren’t looking much better for their offence, as they haven’t put up more than 20 points, since then met Houston in week 10. A much tougher task awaits this week as well, as they meet a top three overall defence and a team that looks like it could go all the way. A big win awaits for Philly who look like they’ll take some beating.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos: Chiefs -9, 1 point @ 10/11
I feel very confident taking the Chiefs in this one. The Broncos are such a hot mess at the moment, it’s not even funny. I don’t think the worst offence in the league, in terms of points scored, is going to stay with the highest scoring offence. A 16-point difference in terms of points they are scoring per game is wild. Credit must be given to the Denver defence, however, who are still fighting for their lives, even with their season in tatters. But even if the defence holds Kansas to 20 or so points, it’s hard to see Denver scoring more than 10, seeing as they have only done that once in their last four. Courtland Sutton and KJ Hamler are also out for Denver, which means that task is going to be even harder. Mahomes and Co. get back on track this week and take another divisional scalp.
Miami Dolphins @ LA Chargers: Dolphins -3, 1 point @ 10/11
The battle of the fifth and sixth picks in the 2020 NFL draft go at in prime-time football on Sunday night, as Tuaman heads to LA to take on Justin Herbert and the Chargers. I have the Dolphins taking this one, as the Dolphins are the far superior team. Sitting at 8-4 and rolling through most of the league, the high-powered Miami offence will cut through the seriously banged up Chargers D, with ease. The Chargers look like they will be without Derwin James, Bryce Callahan and Sebastian Joseph-Day, as they are all listed as doubtful. The Chargers are 30th in points allowed, which is not ideal when facing the offensive juggernaut that is the Dolphins. Miami takes this in a high scoring affair.
Remaining Week 14 Picks:
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Steelers -2
The Steelers have won the last four matchups between the pair and seem to be in a much better place going into week 14. The Ravens will be without Lamar Jackson, although, he hasn’t been doing much over the last few weeks. I would know, I have him in fantasy. The Ravens are 8-4 and have won five of their last six, but I’m not one bit convinced. A one point win, at home, against the Broncos is just not good enough, and a blown lead against the Jags, the week before is pretty poor. They also only put up 13 points against the Panthers the week before that. Their lack of a passing game is hurting them massively and with them now facing a team they haven’t beaten since the 29th of December 2019, I would worry how much they’ll get done on offence, especially with their backup QB, Tyler Huntley, starting. Looking at the Steelers, they are on a two-game win streak and have their best player, TJ Watt, back in action. Pickett is playing much better, and with him facing a secondary that is liable to give up a few yards, I like the Steelers to take this one, in a pretty low scoring affair.
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals: N/A.
The Bengals are the better team but have lost the last five against the Browns. This spread is big as well.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans: Titans -3.5 (*if Lawrence is out)
If Trevor Lawrence doesn’t play, lock in the Titans. The Titans are currently on a bit of slide, losing their last two, but have owned the Jags over the last few years. The Jags are a different team this year but are still not at the level of the Titans. Their 36-point loss to the Lions, last week, is also a bit of a worry. While they contained the Lions on the ground, Jared Goff sliced them open for 340 yards. The Titans won’t expose this weakness, the same as the Lions did, and for that reason I’m not going with the selection if Lawrence plays.
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions: Lions -2
I am so aboard the Lions’ bus right now, and when was the last time they were favourite against a 10-2 Vikings team?! This seems like madness, but the Lions have really been rolling the last few weeks. Four wins in their last five, including a 40-14 blowout against the Jags, last week, has them looking like a different team. The Vikings won another one score game last week, that they probably should have lost. The Jets made a serious comeback in the fourth quarter, but just couldn’t get over the line in their final redzone drive. Tough to dig too deep into the seasonal stats on this one, as it’s really been a tale of two halves for the Lions. What I will say is, the Lions won their home matchup against Vikings last year, with a much worse team. Can they repeat it again this year and maybe lay an even bigger egg on their divisional rival? I think so.
NY Jets @ Buffalo Bills: Jets +10
The last time Mike White played against the Bills, he didn’t throw single TD, instead opting for four INTs. However, this year the Jets are far different proposition on both sides of the ball. Their new star, Garrett Wilson, it a game changer and compliments their other offensive passing weapons, Elijah Moore and CJ Uzomah, really well. The Jets defence is also legit and is currently fourth in terms of total yards allowed per game and sixth in terms of points allowed per game. They also held Josh Allen and Co. to 17 points, when they beat them on Nov 6th. The Bills are a different proposition at home but giving up 10 points to a team that has already beaten you this year is a bit wild. The Bills will also be without Von Miller and DT – Jordan Phillips. The Bills will probably win, but 10 points is a little rich for me.
Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks: N/A.
Seahawks are sliding, so will be staying away for now. I’m also not calling a Panthers game for many many reasons.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers: Under 37.5
Only one of the last four games the Bucs have played have gone over this total. Their loss to Cleveland in week 12 registered 39 points, but they haven’t seen any more points than that since they played Baltimore in week 8. They now face the best defence in the league, in terms of points allowed (15.8 ppg). The 49ers are pretty good going forward, but have rookie seventh round pick, Brock Purdy, lining up under centre to try and go win them this game and a Super Bowl. The Bucs D has been decent, and I could see them slowing down San Fran a good bit. If Brock Purdy plays like Jimmy G, then this selection will probably lose, but that’s a big if. This is looking like a 19-16 defence dominated clash.
Player Prop Bets & Acca:
One point on each selection and the acca.
0 Comments