NAP RECORD: 0-4.

OVERALL RECORD: 31-29-1.

UPDATED TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: -16.04 points.

WEEK 4 RECORD: 6-5.

WEEK 4 PROFIT/LOSS: -1.07points.

TNF – Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos

• Mile High Stadium
• Weather: Calm with 2% chance of rain. 8*C.
• Spread: Broncos -3.
• O/U 42 points.

Team Stats:

Colts:

2022 Record: 1-2-1 (0-1-1 away).

Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 339.8 (19th) // Passing – 252.0 (10th) // Rushing – 87.8 (27th).

Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 297.0 (6th) // Passing – 207.5 (10th) // Rushing – 89.5 (6th).

Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 14.3 (32nd) // PPG Allowed – 21.3 (13th).

Turnover Differential: -6 (30th).

Injury Report: Tyquan Lewis – DT, Shaq Leonard – LB, Jonathan Taylor – RB, Julian Blackmon – S.

Broncos:

2022 Record: 2-2 (2-0 home).

Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 335.8 (21st) // Passing – 226.3 (18th) // Rushing – 109.5 (18th).

Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 248.8 (4th) // Passing – 170.8 (5th) // Rushing – 114.0 (18th).

Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 16.5 (30th) // PPG Allowed – 17.0 (5th).

Turnover Differential: 0 (17th).

Injury Report: Javonte Williams – RB, PJ Locke – S, Quin Meinerz – G, Aaron Patrick – LB.

General Stats:

• Indianapolis are 1-3 against the spread this year.
• Denver are 1-3 against the spread this year.

Game Preview:

Injuries:

Looking at tonight’s ‘super exciting’ TNF, we have to start with the injuries, in particular, the running back injuries. On Sunday night against the Raiders, my homie, Javonte Williams tore his ACL and LCL. Tough break for the young RB star who was primed for a big year as Denver’s primary back. The fallout from this is that Melvin Gordon will step back up as RB1, which is currently not the most appetising option for Broncos fans. Gordon has four fumbles already on the year, including one last week against the Raiders. Mike Boone and Latavius Murray are next up on the depth chart, but the majority of the workload should now flow through Gordon. Moving on to the Colts RB room, Jonathan Taylor has been ruled out with a high ankle sprain. Tonight’s game will be the first game Jonathan Taylor has missed in his career, so Nyheim Hines will be next up on the depth chart and Philip Lindsay will be elevated from the practice squad. So, both teams seriously depleted in the running back position, but the Colts seem to be coming out of this worse off.

In terms of the general injuries, the Colts are missing star line-backer, Shaq Leonard, and in general, are more banged up. The home team definitely have the upper hand as the healthier team.

Defences:

While both offences have been struggling so far this season, both defences have been firing on all cylinders. Both teams are in the top six in terms of yards allowed. The Broncos have the upper hand in terms of points allowed, ranking 5^th, compared to the Colts ranking 13^th . The Broncos did concede 32 to the Raiders last week, but Vegas really clicked on offence, with their best players having great games. The Colts don’t have that sort of fire power, especially with Taylor out, so I would be thinking that they’ll have a scoring total more aligned to that of the 49ers (10) and Texans (9), when they played the Broncos. As mentioned, the Colts defence have been good themselves, conceding 21.3 PPG on average. For this matchup though, I think the Broncos D will outperform their opposition counterparts, especially with the home advantage.

QBs:

Not much to say here, other than they have both struggled for the majority of the season. Ryan had a good showing against the Chiefs, but that’s his only game without an interception. He also has nine fumbles on the year. Nine! His age is starting to show and against a strong Broncos pass rush, he should have some real trouble on his hands. He was sacked five times against the Jags and gave up three picks. Not good. Things haven’t been good for Russell Wilson either, but he did have his best game of the year, against the Raiders. He logged 237 passing yards and 2TDs with no INTs. He also added 29 rushing yards and 1 TD on the ground. If Hackett lets Russ Cook, he should deliver Denver fans the W.

Verdict and Bets:

Broncos -3, 1 point @ 5/6 (Bet365)

They say home advantage is worth three points in the NFL. I’ll take that on top of the Broncos being the better, healthier team, and the reasons outlined above.

Russell Wilson – Rushing Over 12.5, 1 point @ 8/11

Wilson has increased his rushing total in every game so far, logging 29 and 17 respectively in last two games.

Matt Ryan to throw an interception, 1 point @  4/5

If you want to be really cheeky, I would go with Pat Surtain to intercept Ryan @5/1.