NAP RECORD: 0-3.

OVERALL RECORD: 24-22-1.

UPDATED TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: -14.59 points.

WEEK THREE RECORD: 5-7-1.

WEEK THREE PROFIT/LOSS: -2.5 points.

TNF – Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals

• Paycor Stadium.
• Weather: Gentle Breeze from the Northeast. 12/13*C.
• Spread:
• Bengals -3.5.
• O/U 47.5 points.

Team Stats:

Dolphins:

2022 Record: 3-0 (1-0 away).

Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 355.3 (13th) // Passing – 291.3 (4th) // Rushing – 64.0 (31st).

Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 413.7 (31st) // Passing – 297.7 (31st) // Rushing – 116.0 (20th).

Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 27.7 (8th) // PPG Allowed – 21.3 (16th).

Turnover Differential: +2 (8th).

Injury Report: Tua, Waddle, Armstead, Howard all questionable. Tua is the real danger, as he was pretty beat up after last week’s game against the Bills.

Bengals:

2022 Record: 1-2 (0-1 away).

Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 338.7 (20th) // Passing – 241.7 (14th) // Rushing – 97.0  (20th).

Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 310.7 (8th) // Passing – 224.7 (14th) // Rushing – 86.0 (8th).

Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 21.3 (10th) // PPG Allowed – 18.3 (9th).

Turnover Differential: -1 (20^th).

Injury Report (Out): Drew Sample – TE, DJ Reader – DT.

General Stats:

• Miami are 3-0 against the spread this year.
• Cincinnati are 1-2 against the spread this year.

Game Preview:

Short Week & Last Match-Up

Even though both teams won their week three matchups, they had very different outings on Sunday. The Bengals hammered the Jets 27-12 at home, with Burrow and his buddies having a cushty evening indeed. Joe Brrr put up an impressive stat line of 275 yards passing and 3 TDs, while the defence put the clamps on Joe Flacco and the Jets offence, as the veteran QB passed for 285 yards and 2 INTs. His number one receiver was TE Tyler Conklin, in what was an uninspiring performance from New York’s offence. In terms of the short week, it is made a lot easier for Cincinnati with the fact that they don’t have to travel to their opposition’s turf. The same can not be said for Miami, who went through a bruising AFC east divisional match and now face a team on the rise. All while fleeing a hurricane! The most shocking stat from their game last week against the Bills was that Buffalo’s offence had over 90 offensive plays, double that of Miami’s offence. The Phins D is battered and bruised, and I’m sure the searing heat in Hardrock stadium didn’t help either. The Dolphins have heaps of players still questionable for tonight’s game, so I’m sure the short week has not helped one bit.

QBs:

Tonight’s TNF brings us a battle of two of the best QBs from the 2020 draft. The number five draft pick has the upper hand this year, as Tuaman is 2^nd in yards per game, 4^th in total touchdowns and 2^nd in passer rating, while only having two picks. Burrow has had a slower start to the season, ranking 10^th in yards per game, 8^th in total touchdowns and 18^th in passer rating, while having four picks. But this week, the nod has to go to Burrow as he wasn’t concussed, sorry, ‘nursing a back injury’, in his week three game. Burrow has also been on form in his two previous TNF games, throwing for a total of 664 yards and five touchdowns. He is going into this match-up, looking for his third TNF game with 300+ yards and 2+ TDs, and he should hit that tonight, as the Dolphins are the 31^st ranked defence in terms of passing yards allowed. This could be a really exciting matchup between two young QBs, even with the Tuaman a little banged up.

Defences:

The Bengals D has been ok against the pass in 2022. However, they have faced Flacco, Cooper Rush and Trubisky so far. Not your greatest selection ever of pigskin slingers, but you play what’s in front of you, I guess. But, what’s in front of them this week is not good news at all. Hill and Waddle are putting their hands up as the best receiving duo in the league. We all know about Hill, but Waddle has also announced himself as a superstar, in 2022. He has two 100-yard games from three, to go along with thee total TDs. In terms of the Bengals run D, that has been good. They are ranked eight in terms of yards allowed and faced some decent runners of the ball so far. It will be unlikely that they are tested too much tonight, however, as Miami suck at pounding the rock, ranking 31^st in terms of rushing yards per game, and will likely abandon that and focus on their passing offence. This game will be won and lost through the air, so it should get spicy points wise.

Verdict and Bets:

I feel like the bookies have nailed this spread once again. The Dolphins have been the far better team in 2022 but will be exhausted after last week’s game. I think they may hang around for the first half but will likely tire going into the second. The selection of bets below represent that feeling, should you fancy a responsible punt on this evening’s affairs. I have also dumped them into a cheeky little bet builder, should you feel absolutely wild…

• Bengals -1.5 second half handicap – 1 point @ 5/6
• Bengals over 13.5 second half points – 1 point @ 11/10
• Second half total points over 23.5 – 1 point @ 4/5
• Joe Burrow over 273.5 passing yards – 1.5 points @ 5/6
• Bet Builder – 0.5 point @ 4.46/1