NAP RECORD: 0-4.
OVERALL RECORD: 31-29-1.
UPDATED TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: -16.04 points.
WEEK 4 RECORD: 6-5.
WEEK 4 PROFIT/LOSS: -1.07points.
Again, another ok week for the overall record, but the misplaced bigger bets are killing the profit and loss book. Roll on TNF says you.
Week 4 Picks Review
Minnesota Vikings @ NO Saints: Vikings -2.5, 1 point @ 4/6
Yes.
Profit/Loss: +0.67.
Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens: Over 51, 1 point @ 10/11
No.
Profit/Loss: -1.
Chicago Bears @ Ny Giants: No Bet.
N/A.
Cleveland Browns @ Atlanta Falcons: Falcons +1.5, 1.5 points @ 10/11
Yes.
Profit/Loss: +1.36.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles: No Bet.
N/A.
LA Chargers @ Houston Texans: Under 45.5, 1 point @ 10/11
No.
Profit/Loss: -1.
NY Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Steelers win & under 49.5, 2 points @ 11/10
No.
Profit/Loss: -2.
Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions: Lions -3, 0.5 point @ 5/6
No.
Profit/Loss: -0.5.
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts: Titans +3.5, 1 point @ 10/11
Yes.
Profit/Loss: +0.91.
Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys: Cowboys -2.5, 1 point @ 4/6
Yes.
Profit/Loss: +0.67.
Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers: Cardinals ML, 1 point @10/11
Yes.
Profit/Loss: +0.91.
Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders: No Bet.
N/A.
NE Patriots @ Green Bay Packers: Packers -9.5, 2 points @ 10/11
No.
Profit/Loss: -2.
KC Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: per insta story, 1 point @10/11
Yes.
Profit/Loss: +0.91.
LA Rams @ San Francisco 49ers: no bet.
N/A.
€5 to €250 Challenge Review
- Stefon Diggs anytime – no
- Saquon over 80.5 yards rushing – yes
- Steelers and under – no
- Packers -9.5 – no
- Jamaal Williams anytime – yes
- Derrick Henry anytime – yes
- Dallas Cowboys +7.5 – yes
Week 4 Winners & Losers
Kicking things off with the Losers this week…
Losing Picks:
Shock to see the losing bets within the ‘Losers’ section, I know. But here we are. While the overall record is in the positive for another week, the NAP lost again, as well as the other 2-point selection. Reviewing the Green Bay game (NAP) first, I was completely flabbergasted by the fact that their third string QB, Bailey Zappe could keep the game within a field goal, come the final whistle. This is Aaron Rodgers, at home, we are talking about. On reflection, I gave too much credit to Rodgers’ connection with his new wideouts and the Green Bay defence. It’s very rare for Rodgers to throw an INT, never mind a pick-six, so it wasn’t ideal when the Patriots notched one up before half time. I like the Packers, so I hope they get it together as the season goes on.
Reviewing the Steelers loss, again, I put too much credit in their defence. Zach Wilson’s final drive to win the game was nothing short of impressive, but he should not be able to go 6/6 and snatch the game away from Pittsburgh in the final seconds. Pickett was good when he came in (bar the 3 INTs) but allowing a struggling New York Jets team to put up 24 points on you, at home, is just not good enough. Up ten with 9:50 left on the clock, allowing Zach Wilson to convert a 4th and 7 is just unacceptable. Upon reflection, I should have seen it coming. The Steelers are now 0-7 when TJ Watt doesn’t play.
The remaining losses and mistakes I will try to be aware of going forward:
- Bills Ravens Over – check the weather beforehand!
- Lions to beat the Seahawks – don’t back a second-string team.
- Chargers Texans Under – Justin Herbert can get very hot and nearly cover the point total by himself. And the Texans suck.
Matthew Stafford:
Currently sitting in 14th in QBR, Matt Stafford has not gotten off to his hottest start ever, which included another loss and another game without a touchdown pass. Stafford has 4 TDs and 6 INTs on the year, while leading his team to a 2-2 record. Their two losses have come against Bills and the 49ers, and if you dig into the stats in those games, you can really see that he doesn’t perform well against a strong pass rushing team. Both the Bills and 49ers defensive lines are elite, and in their games with the Rams, they put up 7 sacks a piece. Under that sort of pressure, Stafford threw three picks against the Bills and one pick against the Niners. Stafford and the Rams need to do something quick, as they face the Cowboys, Panthers, 49ers (again) and the Bucs over the next four weeks.
Looks like the loss of Andrew Whitworth and OBJ is having a pretty big effect after all.
Tua:
The handling of Tua’s last two weeks of football activities has been inhumane to say the least. Completely rocked and likely concussed during the Bills game, Tua was cleared to return to the field and finish out the game. He was seen stumbling away from a big hit, having to be carried by his teammate up the field. The ‘independent’ doctor cleared him and then the Dolphins training staff cleared him once again to play against the Bengals, on Thursday Night Football, during his short week. He then went on to get concussed again during TNF, after the back of his head crashed into the ground following on from a hit by Bengals’ tackle Josh Tupou. The QBs fingers flexed in a “fencing response,” and he remained on the field for nearly 10 minutes before he was carted off and subsequently hospitalised. Experts are saying he should stop playing football for good. I’m sure we all hope it doesn’t come to that, but all the fans want is for him to be ok and to live on in a healthy manner.
Winners:
Jalen Hurts and the Eagles
It wasn’t looking pretty for the Eagles after one quarter on Sunday night, as the current NFC number one seed were down 14 to the Jacksonville Jaguars in the lashing rain. But Eagles fans did not fret, as they have the next Superman under centre. Hurts and the running game took over in the second, as himself, Gainwell and Sanders all logged rushing touchdowns to put Philadelphia back in the lead. The Eagles had it relatively handy in the season up until this point, so it was nice to see them dig deep in front of their home fans. The Jags were also the top-rated run defence going into this match, and they still got run over, so Philly are definitely a force to be reckoned with as the season goes on.
UK NFL Fans
NFL fans in the UK were treated to the first of three games to be played in London during the month of October. The Minnesota Vikings took on the New Orleans Saints, in a thrilling battle that went down to the wire. Poor Will Lutz was almost the first kicker in NFL history to land +60 yards field goals in back-to-back plays, but unfortunately came up short in his attempt to try and level the game in the dying seconds. Lutz double doinked with the Vikings leading 28-25 with two seconds left, handing the victory to Minnesota. Sometimes these NFL UK games can be damp squibs, but fans got their money worth with this one.
Las Vegas Raiders
Mannnnnn, the Raiders needed that one. The only 0-3 team left in the NFL finally got in the winners’ enclosure. Vegas got their first win of the season, on Sunday night, against their AFC West Divisional rivals, the Denver Broncos. Derek Carr kept himself clean and Josh Jacobs dominated in the ground and pound. Jacobs looked back to his best, a dynamic, shifty and powerful running back who can control the game with every carry. The Alabama product ran for 144 yards and 2TDs, as he took the pressure off his QB and fellow offensive teammates. Davante Adams also logged a good day, hauling in 9 receptions for 101 yards. Unfortunately for the Raiders, they face the Chiefs away, this Sunday. Tough break.
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