NAP RECORD: 0-1.

OVERALL RECORD: 11-5.

PROFIT/LOSS: +2.56 points.

2021 SEASON RECORD: 104-104.

TNF – LA Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

• Arrowhead Stadium.
• Weather: Looks clear and warm @ 23*C. Light Breeze.
• Spread:
• Chiefs -4.5.
• O/U 53.5 points.

Team Stats:

Chargers:

2021 Record: 9-8 (4-4 away).

Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 390.3 (4th) // Passing – 282.4 (3rd) // Rushing – 107.9 (21st).

Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 360.1 (23rd) // Passing – 221.2 (12th) // Rushing – 138.9 (30th).

Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 27.9 (5th) // PPG Allowed – 27.0 (30th).

Turnover Differential: -1 (19th).

Injury Report (Out): Donald Parham – TE, Keenan Allen – WR.

2022 Record: 1-0.

Game 1 Offensive Stats:

• Total Yards: 355.
• Passing Yards: 279.0
• Rushing Yards: 76.

Game 1 Defensive Stats:

• Total Yards: 320.
• Passing Yards: 256.
• Rushing Yards: 64.

Chiefs:

2021 Record: 12-5 (7-2 home).

Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 390.2 (3rd) // Passing – 281.8 (4th) // Rushing – 115.0 (16th).

Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 368.9 (27th) // Passing – 251.4 (27th) // Rushing – 117.6 (21st).

Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 28.2 (4th) // PPG Allowed – 21.4 (8th).

Turnover Differential: +4 (11th).

Injury Report (Out): Trent McDuffie – CB, Harrison Butker – K.

2022 Record: 1-0.

Game 1 Offensive Stats:

• Total Yards: 488.
• Passing Yards: 360.
• Rushing Yards: 128.

Game 1 Defensive Stats:

• Total Yards: 282.
• Passing Yards: 179.
• Rushing Yards: 103.

General Stats:

• Chargers have won the last two games in Arrowhead.
• Mahomes and the Chiefs won both of their TNF games in 2021, including a 34-28 win at Sofi Stadium against the Chargers.
• 10/17 away teams won TNF in 2021 (not counting the games on Thanksgiving in week 12).
• Herbert has thrown for at least three touchdowns in his two games at Arrowhead.

Game Preview

Both of these teams had similar statistical performances in 2021. Both were offensive juggernauts with liabilities for defences. Both have now looked to sure up their defences with free agent acquisitions and the draft. They both won their first game and their QBs balled out.

QB Battle:

Two of the best QBs in the leeeeague go toe to toe in tonight’s TNF. Mahomes and Herbert both got off to blistering starts in week one, with Mahomes throwing for 360 yards and 5 TDs with no INTs, and Herbert throwing for 279 yards and 3TDs with no INTs. They are at the peak of their powers, but one has the upper hand in Arrowhead. Herbert has won both of their battles in the Chiefs home ground, throwing for 302 and 3TDs in Jan 21, and 281 and 4TDs in Sept 21. While I feel Mahomes is the better QB right now, it’s undeniable that Herbert has one (or two) over on him at Arrowhead.

Defences:

They both had hot messes for defences last year but have made significant improvements during the offseason. The Chargers have added Khalil Mack, JC Jackson and Sebastian Joseph Day. Mack had a monster game the last day against the Raiders, logging three sacks. Mack’s presence also frees up Joey Bosa to go do his thing, and he duly obliged logging 1.5 sacks himself. JC Jackson missed the first game of the season due to injury and he may miss this week two. More on that below. For the Chiefs, they added DE George Karlaftis and CB Trent McDuffie in the draft. Karlaftis blocked one pass in his debut and Trent McDuffie wasn’t targeted a single time by Kyler Murray. Both defences face much stronger prospects in this match-up.

Injuries:

Some big injuries for both teams may be a deciding factor for this game. As mentioned, Trent McDuffie and Harrison Butker are both out for the Chiefs. McDuffie is a big loss, especially when you’re facing Justin Herbert and his rocket arm. Jets ex kicker Matt Amendola has been signed to replace Butker, but that wouldn’t fill you with confidence. Amendola made all his kicks inside 40 yards last year, but only made 2/8 outside that mark. For the Chargers, JC Jackson is a massive piece of this puzzle. If he plays, I will back the Chargers +4.5 no doubt. Keenan Allen and Donald Parham are losses to the receiving game, but Mike Williams has been the guy when the Chargers have travelled to Arrowhead.

Verdict and Bets:

Chargers +4.5: 1 point @10/11

Even with JC Jackson out, I am still leaning towards the Chargers taking this one on the handicap. I think if the Chiefs do win, they’ll win by a less than the spread.

Under 53.5: 1 point @ 10/11

Since Herbert joined the Chargers, 3/4 games have been over 53 points. I think it may be different this time. Last week against the Chiefs, the Cardinals had only put up seven points in the first three quarters, until Kansas rolled out the B squad. The Raiders and their power offence only put up 19 points total against the Chargers. I may get this very wrong, but I like the under here.

Mahomes Over 16.5 Rushing Yards: 1 point @ 5/6

In his last two games against the Chargers, Mahomes has rushed for 32 and 45 yards respectively. He could be scrambling away from Bosa and Mack tonight, so I like him to hit this over.