Week 15 TNF brings us a cracker. The Kansas City Chiefs travel to Sofi Stadium to take on the LA Chargers, in what looks like the Thursday night game of the year. The Chiefs are joint top in the AFC and sit atop the AFC West by themselves, with a record of 9-4. The Chargers are hot on their heels, with a record of 8-5. If the Chargers win this game, they’ll go into a four-way tie for first place in the conference and put serious pressure on their AFC west rivals for first place in their division. The teams last met at the end of September in a high scoring affair, that the Chargers took 30-24.

Chiefs:

• Current Record: 9-4 (3-2 away).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 389.6 (4th) // Passing – 277.9 (6th) // Rushing – 111.7 (16th).
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 361.7 (24th) // Passing – 252.0 (26th) // Rushing – 109.7 (14th)
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 27.0 (Tied 8th) // PPG Allowed – 20.6 (6th).
• Turnover Differential: 0 (17th).
• Injury Report (Out): Josh Gordon – WR, Chris Jones – DT, L’Jarius Sneed – CB, Willie Gay – LB.
• The Chiefs have allowed 17 points or less in their last six games.
• Mahomes has two losses against the Chargers in his career. Tied most vs any opponent.

Chargers:

• Current Record: 8-5 (4-3 home).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – (6th) // Passing – 280.3 (5th) // Rushing – 104.9 (21st).
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 348.0 (16th) // Passing – 207.3 (4th) // Rushing – 140.7 (31st)
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 27.0 (Tied 8th) // PPG Allowed – (26th).
• Turnover Differential: +3 (10th).
• Injury Report (Out): Rashawn Slater – OT. Lots questionable with limited participation yesterday: Asante Samuel Jr – CB, Derwin James – S, Alohi Gilman – S, Austin Ekeler.

To know the way forward, you must first look back. Heard it here first. Looking back on their week three match-up, tells us a lot. The two AFC West heavy weights met in week three, where the Chargers took the W by six points, in Arrowhead. Mahomes was up and down on the day, throwing three TDs and two INTs. He finished with 27 completions on 44 attempts, for 260 yards. He also added four rushes on the ground for 45 yards. Herbert was straight fire on the other hand. The young QB finished with 4 TDs and no INTs. He completed 26 passes on 38 attempts, for 281 yards. While Mahomes has tidied up his game since then, Herbert has been playing at a much higher level. Herbert has 11 TDs and four INTs over his last four games, while Mahomes has seven TDs and 2 INTs. All seven TDs coming in the games against the Raiders. The Chargers have the fourth ranked passing defence in the league, so the edge in the passing game is certainly with the Chargers.

The Chargers are good at stopping the pass, but the same cannot be said for their run defence. Currently, the second worst run defence in the league, the Chargers are giving up 140.0 yards per game, on average. While the Chiefs are not the most dynamic running team in the league, they have certainly been leaning on it more in recent weeks and spreading it around in a more of a committee style back field, that includes Gore, Edwards-Helaire and Williams. For the Chargers, Ekeler has been scoring well, but not as a true runner. LA are currently 21st in rushing yards and haven’t been overpowering their opponents on the ground. I would give the Chiefs the slight edge here.

Another interesting dynamic to this game is the absentees. The Chiefs will be without defensive stalwarts, Chris Jones, L’Jarius Sneed and Willie Gay. Not exactly what you want to be dealing with when you’re playing a team that is currently catching fire on offence. Luckily enough for Kansas, Charvarius Ward is still there and has only allowed a 47.1 completion % in 2021, which is good enough for best in the league. Ward should keep Keenan Allen busy, but Mike Williams could be in for a big game. The Chargers have one guy missing, but he’s a big one. Literally and figuratively. Rookie OT, Rashawn Slater has been one of the best players in the 2021 draft and a top OT this season. He absence is a huge blow for LA and it’s a gap they will not be able to fill. Melvin Ingram will look for his opportunity to exploit that gap and get after Mahomes.

72% of the bets are going on the Chiefs, but I’m going to side with the Chargers here. Enjoy, Larry. The Chargers already beat Kansas away from home this year and with the current injury list for the Chiefs looking bad, it’s not going to be any easier this time around for the travelling team. The Chiefs have been on lock down defensively in recent weeks, but Chris Jones being out is a massive loss. The extra points here on the handicap is an added bonus and one I will be availing of.

J.

NAP: 9 – 3.

CURRENT RECORD: 74-83.