Alright y’all, it’s week 15 and COVID is making its presence known in the league. Games are being moved around like chess pieces, as teams are being decimated and stripped to the bare bones. The Browns currently have 20 players on their COVID reserve list.

First up is the Patriots/Colts game on Saturday night and then we have a regular enough schedule for Sunday, before three Monday games and two Tuesday games. Madness. As they say though, where there’s chaos, there’s cash.

NAP: 9 – 3.

CURRENT RECORD: 74-84.

Up Munster as well.

Green Bay Packers @ Baltimore Ravens: Packers -6.5 (NAP)

Packers:

• Current Record: 10-3 (4-3 away).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 361.5 (13th) // Passing – 253.8 (9th) // Rushing – 107.6 (21st).
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 323.6 (6th) // Passing – 218.5 (8th) // Rushing – 105.2 (9th)
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 25.2 (14th) // PPG Allowed – 20.9 (6th).
• Turnover Differential: +12 (2nd).
• Injury Report (Out): David Bakhtari – OT, Equanimeous St. Brown – WR, MVS – WR, Billy Turner – G.

Ravens:

• Current Record: 8-5 (5-1 home).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 388.0 (6th) // Passing – 243.2 (12th) // Rushing – 144.8 (3rd).
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 351.5 (17th) // Passing – (31st) // Rushing – 85.5 (1st)
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 23.4 (17th) // PPG Allowed – 21.8 (10th).
• Turnover Differential: -9 (29th).
• Injury Report (Out): Calais Campbell – DT, Ben Powers – G, Lamar Jackson – QB. Plenty questionable.

Packers all day, everyday baby. Reasons why:

• Aaron Rodgers is playing at an MVP level.
• The Ravens have the second worst pass defence in the league. Rodgers will feast.
• Lamar Jackson will be out (probably). Tyler Huntley is in.
• Green Bay’s turnover differential is second best. Baltimore’s is fourth worst.
• Green Bay should have beaten Chicago by 30+ last week, but for their special teams.
• Green Bay’s defence is playing at an elite level.
• Ravens have had two divisional road games over the last two weeks and should be wrecked.

New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts: Patriots +3

Patriots:

• Current Record: 9-4 (6-0 away).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 346.5 (18th) // Passing – 223.0 (18th) // Rushing – 123.5 (9th).
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 310.0 (3rd) // Passing – 195.5 (3rd) // Rushing – 114.5 (18th)
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 26.9 (10th) // PPG Allowed – 15.4 (1st).
• Turnover Differential: +10 (3rd).
• Injury Report (Out): Damien Harris – RB, Ronnie Perkins – LB, Yodny Cajuste – OL.

Colts:

• Current Record: 7-6 (3-4 home).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 368.1 (11th) // Passing – 216.4 (21st) // Rushing – 151.7 (2nd).
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 342.1 (13th) // Passing – 230.2 (12th) // Rushing – 111.8 (16th)
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 28.5 (3rd) // PPG Allowed – 21.8 (9th).
• Turnover Differential: +13 (1st).
• Injury Report (Out): Antwaun Woods.

This is shaping up to be a great game and one that looks very hard to call. Both teams are on nice hot streaks and don’t look to be making many mistakes. Both teams are taking care of the ball well and have strong turnover differentials. This game could come down to who makes the big mistake (or doesn’t), and if you were looking at the two QBs through that lens, it’s more likely that Wentz will be your guy to make the blunder.

Jonathan Taylor is easily the best running back in football at the moment, but Big Ole Billy will undoubtedly scheme up something dangerous to stop to the runaway train of a running back. Belichick will look to put the ball in Wentz’ hands and if that happens, I like the Patriots pass rush to get after him, along with their CBs to produce ball hawk performances, which they have been doing all year. I say the Patriots edge this one on the money line, and if you’re going to give me points as well, I won’t say no.

Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers: 49ers -8.5

Falcons:

• Current Record: 6-7 (5-2 away).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 316.4 (24th) // Passing – 225.3 (17th) // Rushing – 91.1 (27th).
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 364.5 (24th) // Passing – 247.5 (21st) // Rushing – 117.1 (23rd)
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 18.8 (26th) // PPG Allowed – 27.2 (28th).
• Turnover Differential: -5 (26th).
• Injury Report (Out): Daren Bates – LB.

49ers:

• Current Record: 7-6 (2-4 home).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 364.3 (12th) // Passing – 240.4 (14th) // Rushing – 123.9 (8th).
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 325.4 (8th) // Passing – 213.2 (5th) // Rushing – 112.2 (17th)
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 25.3 (13th) // PPG Allowed – 23.2 (20th).
• Turnover Differential: -2 (21st).
• Injury Report (Out): Elijah Mitchell – RB, Dre Greenlaw – LB, Azeez Al-Shaair – LB, Maurice Hurst – DT.

The more I look at this game, the more I like the pick. The Falcons are a bad team that are hanging around like a bad smell and the 49ers are picking up momentum. Since George Kittle returned, they are a much more dynamic team, and his presence has given Jimmy G back his safety blanket. The Niners are cooking, winning 4 of their last five, including that massive overtime win against the Bengals last week. That will have given them a lot of confidence and they shouldn’t face too much opposition this week.

The strength of the Falcons offence, if you could call it that, is their passing ability. Unfortunately, that strength only comes out to play when Matt Ryan has time to throw. That will not be the case in San Fran, as Nick Bosa will lead a dominant front seven in piling the pressure on old Matty Ice. The 49ers have the 5th ranked passing defence and will look to smother the Falcons mediocre WRs. 49ers take this. Handy.

Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Steelers ML

Titans:

• Current Record: 9-4 (4-2 away).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 347.2 (17th) // Passing – 209.4 (23rd) // Rushing – 137.8 (5th).
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 341.6 (12th) // Passing – 250.7 (22nd) // Rushing – 90.9 (2nd)
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 24.9 (15th) // PPG Allowed – 22.3 (15th).
• Turnover Differential: -3 (22nd).
• Injury Report (Out): Janoris Jenkins – CB, Teair Tart – DT, Tory Carter – FB, Larrell Murchison – DT, Derrick Henry – RB, AJ Brown – WR.

Steelers:

• Current Record: 6-6-1 (4-2-1 home).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – (20th) // Passing – 240.6 (13th) // Rushing – 88.4 (28th).
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 371.3 (27th) // Passing – 231.8 (14th) // Rushing – 139.5 (31st)
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 20.9 (21st) // PPG Allowed – 24.8 (22nd).
• Turnover Differential: -2 (20th).
• Injury Report (Out): Montravius Adams, Buddy Johnson – LB, Isaiah Buggs – DE.

The Titans are currently sitting at 9-4 and in second place in the AFC. They had a dominant victory against the Jags last week, but how much can you really tell when you face Jacksonville. The Steelers are wobbling and are coming off a close loss to the Vikings in week 14. But that loss was because Minnesota let them back into, after going up big at the start. Tomlin and the Steelers have their backs against the wall, and this is a home game they need to win. Luckily for them, their home advantage is one of the few truly left in the NFL in 2021.

The Steelers are 4-2-1 at home this season, including some good wins against Baltimore, Denver, Chicago and Seattle. Big Ben has a passer rating of over 100 in four of his last five games and his wide receivers are playing out of their skin. Minus Claypool’s ridiculous antics at the end of the game last week. Big Ben has won his last three against Tennessee and he will need to have a big game this week, if they are to take home the W. TJ Watt is back and will look to wreck Tannehill and the passing game, so can the Steelers contain the Titans run attack? Tomlin has never had a losing season with Pittsburgh and if that record is to continue, it looks like he will need a big victory here, judging by the rest of their schedule. Steelers take this. Just.

All Week 15 Picks:

Confident:

• New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts: Patriots +3
• Arizona Cardinals @ Detroit Lions: Cardinals -12.5
• Carolina Panthers @ Buffalo Bills: Bills -11.5
• Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars: Under 39.5
• New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins: Dolphins -9.5
• Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Steelers ML
• Green Bay Packers @ Baltimore Ravens: Packers -6.5
• Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers: 49ers -8.5
• LA Rams @ Seattle Seahawks: Rams -5.5
• Washington Football Team @ Philadelphia Eagles: Eagles -6.5

Meh:

• Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants: Giants +11.5
• Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos: Bengals +3

Not Confident:

• Las Vegas Raiders @ Cleveland Browns: Raiders ML (will review again on Monday, due to the uncertainty with players returning from COVID. 20 Browns’ players are currently on the COVID reserve list).
• Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears: Vikings – 5.5

Saints:

• New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over 45.5

€5 to €500:

Stay safe out there x

J.