Hurling Preview – Round 3

Michael Mulvihill – TW Media

Hi folks,

Delighted to join the team at Bulldog Sports and I’m very much looking forward to (hopefully!) sharing some winning tips between now and the end of the 2022 championship.

As some of you may know, I previously wrote for the Racing Post in 2018 & 2019 so with some time on my hands, I’ve decided to start putting together some (brief!) hurling previews for the rest of the 2022 season. If you want to see my results so far this year from previews I’ve sent out to various WhatsApp groups over the last few weeks, please visit my website – www.twmedia.ie/gaa. While you’re there, feel free to check out some of my video work across the last few years.

If you have gotten this far, I hope you enjoy the below preview of round three which features two big games which for some reason, are clashing!

Sunday, May 1st

Cork v Clare

Semple Stadium, Thurles

2pm

3pts – Clare +1 -21/20 Boyles

2pts – Clare – 11/8 PP & Boyles

2pts – P Duggan to score 4pts or more – 11/8 Boyles

1pt – Clare Over 2.5 goals – 13/5 Boyles

We start on Sunday with a mouthwatering clash between Cork and Clare which is a must-win game for the Rebels. Since last year’s All Ireland Final hammering, Cork had a solid start to 2022, progressing to the league final, and it seemed like things were looking up for Kieran Kingston’s side. That night, however, laid bare the serious problems they continue to have in defence, and this was further exposed when Limerick visited Pairc Ui Chaoimh two weeks ago. Limerick hit Cork for 2-25 in their backyard, with twelve Limerick players getting on the scoresheet in another huge mental blow for Cork. It’s starting to look like this Cork side isn’t capable of performing in the big games, so Sunday is a huge test. Since then, they’ve reportedly spent some time regrouping at Fota Island, and Cork fans must be hoping they were looking at tactics rather than monkeys.

Against Limerick, Cork’s problems began at number one as they struggled to retain puck outs or initiate any meaningful attacks from their restarts. Limerick are probably the most difficult side to play against in terms of winning puck outs and creating attacks due to their dominant half-back line, structured midfield and forward press, but Clare showed against Tipperary that they can be equally efficient in disrupting opposition puck outs. Sean Flynn produced a great analysis of Clare’s puck out strategy in the42 this week (see link below), but the standout for me is Clare’s use of Shane O’Donnell in 2022. It was brilliant to see O’Donnell back in action last Sunday (he suffered from multiple concussions over the last year), and he’s looking better than ever. He’s bulked up significantly and it looks like he’s going to be used further out the field this year. O’Donnell is a natural ball winner and poacher, and he can be guaranteed to provide Peter Duggan and Ian Galvin with quality ball (Galvin and Duggan hit 1-2 each on Sunday). As Flynn’s piece analysed, Clare cut off the short puckout option to the Tipperary half-back line and with a huge half-back line of David McInerney, John Conlon and Diarmuid Ryan, Clare can more than hold their own under the long puck outs. This is very similar to the Limerick model which has proved so successful over the last few seasons. If Clare can again dominate this aspect of the game, their forwards are among the best in the country and can cause havoc against a Cork backline that has consistently struggled in space. It was noticeable to see how much space Clare created for their full-forward line against Tipperary, and something similar would be a nightmare for Cork’s defence. Oh, and I haven’t even mentioned Tony Kelly. Although not as obvious as in previous years, he still contributed 1-7 to Clare’s tally. It’s very important that Clare moves away from their reliance on Kelly and the addition of Duggan and O’Donnell is a huge boost in that respect.

The problems in Cork’s defence have been well documented at this stage, but their attack was just as big an issue against Limerick two weeks ago. Cork scored 1-9 from play that day with just seven players on the scoresheet. More worrying again is their scoring capitulation in the second half. Like they did in the opening few minutes of the game, Cork started the second half well, drawing level with Limerick in the 38th minute. From then, however, they were outscored by 0-16 to 0-5, with all five of their scores coming from Patrick Horgan and just one of these from play (credit to @fotoole13 on Twitter). To be fair to Cork, comparing their battle with the Limerick defence to Clare’s battle with the Tipperary defence is apples and oranges stuff but, it does highlight the areas of improvement needed for Kingston’s side.

With that, all said and done, the betting on this game is completely wrong in my view, with Boylesports even offering 6/4 on Clare earlier this week. That has tightened up slightly now with Clare at 11/8 but I feel there’s still some juice left in this price. In a neutral venue, I think Clare have a huge chance of overcoming Cork here, and they’ll be on a high after last week’s demolition of Tipperary. Even though Clare were very good last week, I think they’ll improve for the the run and I expect their scoring efficiency to improve. The likes of Peter Duggan and Shane O’Donnell are going to get better with game time, and I see them causing the Cork defence huge issues. I feel Clare could get a run on Cork and I’m going to chance them in a few win, goals and handicap markets.

Sunday, May 1st

Galway v Kilkenny

Pearse Stadium, Galway

2pm

2pts – Galway – 11/8 Boyles

The other game on Sunday sees a clash of two of the greatest hurling men of all time. Brian Cody v Henry Shefflin. Of Cody’s eleven All Ireland titles as manager, Shefflin was a part of ten and he was arguably Cody’s most important ever player. While pleasantries will be exchanged before the game, it will stop there with two born winners facing off on the sideline in what is a huge clash.

Similar to last week’s meeting of Limerick and Waterford, it’s very likely that Kilkenny and Galway are going to meet again in the provincial final so, like eight days ago, many will argue that a form of ‘shadow boxing’ may be at play here. However, we saw in the Gaelic Grounds that teams at this level don’t engage in that sort of thing and this game will be about laying down a marker for the rest of the championship.

To begin with, let’s look at Galway, whom many fancied in 2021 to be Limerick’s main challengers. Their season derailed early doors however with a Leinster semi-final loss to Dublin from which they never recovered as they fell to Waterford in the qualifiers. Manager Shane O’Neill made way for Shefflin in 2022 and this seems to have revitalised the Galway setup. A solid league in which they defeated Offaly, Limerick and Clare looked to have provided them with the platform to launch their championship campaign. This, however, has so far failed to really materialise. They travelled to Wexford Park in round one and it looked like Shefflin’s reign was off to the perfect start, leading by six points with 62 minutes on the clock. Things began to unravel quickly however with Conor McDonald scrambling home a Wexford goal a few minutes after Galway’s starman Conor Whelan departed through injury. Galway can however feel hard done by referee Thomas Walsh who ruled Conor Cooney took too long over his late free, but Wexford rallied impressively hitting the last two scores to snatch the draw.

The return of Conor Whelan to the bench is a big boost for Galway however, as he is the focal point of this Galway attack. Galway struggled after Whelan’s departure against Wexford and he is undoubtedly the man Shefflin will have identified to build the forward line around. While the likes of Evan Niland and Conor Cooney bring great scoring power, they’ve struggled to take the next step to top players and are unlikely to rack up big scores from play. If Whelan starts, this changes the game quite significantly in my opinion so keep an eye out on team news closer to throw-in.

For Kilkenny, Cody has focussed on rebuilding this team and the move of TJ Reid to full-forward looks an inspired one to me. Reid is obviously one of the top players in the country, but he’s moving on in years and isn’t the same force of old further out the field. The key for Kilkenny is how Eoin Cody and Adrian Mullen have stepped up to lead this team, while the move of Padraig Walsh to centre-forward has given them serious ball-winning ability. With Walter Walsh and Adrian Mullen flanking him, they can cause the Galway half-back line serious difficulties in the air.

I find this an extremely difficult game to call but with Whelan on the 26, and possibly starting, Galway are just too big a price at 11/8 at home. It’s a game to be watched with interest rather than a strong betting one, but I’ll have a small bet on Galway at the prices.

Of the other games this weekend, I find it hard to find meaningful bets with both favorites far superior to the opposition so I won’t preview them.

As mentioned above, I really recommend checking out Sean Flynn’s piece in the 42 this week: https://www.the42.ie/puck-out-analysis-5747410-Apr2022/

You can also view these previews over at my own website, www.twmedia.ie, along with the content I create for my real job!