Date:

• 14^th – 17^th July

Course:

• The Old Course @ St. Andrews

This year’s Open Championship is being held on the most iconic golf course in the world – St Andrews. Golf was first played on this stretch of land around 600 years ago, which established it as the undisputed Home of Golf. Even with its platinum status in the golfing world, it is still a public course, which only adds to its status. It has hosted the tournament a record 29 times.

Last time The Open was hosted at St. Andrews:

• 2015
• Winner – Zach Johnson.

Johnson prevailed in a playoff against Mark Leishman and Louis Oosthuizen. Before 2015, the last time The Open was held at St Andrews was 2010, in which Oosthuizen took home the spoils.

Last ‘big’ tournament held there:

• 2021 Alfred Dunhill Championship
• Winner – Danny Willett

Not sure if this fully qualifies as the last tournament that was played at St Andrews, as the Dunhill is played over three courses – St Andrews, Carnoustie and Kingsbarn, but it would be silly to completely ignore it. Some other notables in the top ten at the 2021 renewal were: Hatton – T2, Lowry – T4, Fleetwood – T7. Three Swedes finished in the top 12, which I thought was interesting. You probably won’t… An actual fun fact, Tyrell Hatton has won the Dunhill twice, as well as two second-place finishes (2018, 2021).

Past six winners of The Open:

• 2021 – Collin Morikawa (2 Strokes)
• 2020 – COVID (19 Strokes)
• 2019 – Shane Lowry (6 Strokes)
• 2018 – Francesco Molinari (2 Strokes)
• 2017 – Jordan Spieth (3 Strokes)
• 2016 – Henrik Stenson (3 Stokes)

The winner (and runner up) of The Open is generally one of the best iron players and ball strikers over the four days of the tournament. The long iron shots and blustery conditions means that the purest ball strikers have the upper hand. Creativity, solid putting and a having a cool head in tricky conditions also goes along way. However, this tournament, and particularly this course, leans heavily on the wind as it’s defence mechanism. If the wind isn’t up, the pros will rip St. Andrews apart. Ross Fisher has the course record at 61 and I wouldn’t be surprised to see someone come close to that, should the conditions be like what they had on the first day of the Scottish Open. If the wind is up for the few days, look for the best ball strikers. If the wind is down, look for the guys who make an insane amount of birdies just for fun.

Rating System (Notables in the Top 30 of PGA Tour):

Ball Striking:

• Rahm – 1^st
• Connors – 2^nd
• Schauffele – 3^rd
• Scheffler – 4^th
• Power – 8^th
• McIlroy – 15^th
• Morikawa – 23^rd
• Lowry – 25^th

To come up with the ‘Ball Striking’ metric, the PGA tour combines a golfer’s ranking in two statistical categories, ‘Total Driving’ and ‘Greens in Regulation’. No real surprises here, as Rahm and the boys listed above are some best ball strikers around without needing to look at a single stat.

Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green:

• Willy Z – 1^st
• McIlroy – 2^nd
• Matt Fitz – 3^rd
• JT – 4^th
• Rahm – 6^th
• Schauffele – 7^th
• Scheffler – 8^th
• Finau – 9^th
• Lowry – 10^th
• Conners – 19^th
• Spieth – 20^th
• Morikawa – 24^th
• Sam Burns – 26^th
• Cam Smith – 27^th
• Cantlay – 29^th
• Dusty Johnson – 30^th

The same story here. The best of the best players are in the top 30 of strokes gained tee-to-green, showing the importance of hitting it long and pure in the modern game. While St. Andrews is like nothing seen on the PGA Tour, hitting bombs and dialled in wedges will undoubtedly set the fellas up for success. If the wind is up or down, the pros above should have the skills to take full advantage of the Old Course.

Strokes Gained Approach to The Green:

• Willy Z – 1^st
• Morikawa – 4^th
• Cam Smith – 5^th
• JT – 6^th
• Scheffler – 7^th
• Lowry – 8^th
• Schauffele – 9^th
• Hovland – 10^th
• Burns – 12^th
• McIlroy – 13^th
• Finau – 15^th
• Dusty Johnson – 17^th
• Matt Fitz – 25^th
• Rahm – 28^th
• Conners – 30^th

This is the final individual stat for analysis. Last year, Morikawa put on an iron exhibition on his way to victory. St. Andrews will likely require the winner to have his long putts fairly dialled in, but the majority of the damage to the field will be done by the irons and driver. Its good to see the same names popping up again here, as it makes the selections easier at the end of the day. One name that is popping up for the first time is Cam Smith. The Aussie is a fine iron/wedge player and has experience playing in windy conditions growing up.

Past Course Experience:

As mentioned above, Tyrell Hatton has won the Alfred Dunhill twice, with two second places. But on paper, Louis Oosthuizen has the best record at St. Andrews, with a win in 2010 and a second in 2015. The results for the South African are from a good while ago but they can’t be ignored given the fact he is still in form these days. Other notable results are Spieth (an Open championship machine) with a fourth in 2015 and McIlroy with a third in 2010, with a blistering 63 to start.

Past Open Experience – Last Five Years (2021 – 2016):

• McIlroy – 8/1 : T46, MC, T2, T4, T5.
• Schauffele – 11/1: T26, T41, T2, T20, N/A.
• Spieth – 12/1: 2^nd, T20, T9, WIN, T30.
• Rahm – 12/1: T3, T11, MC, T44, T59.
• Scheffler – 14/1: T8, N/A, N/A, N/A, N/A.
• Matt Fitzpatrick – 14/1: T26, T20, MC, T44, MC.
• Lowry – 16/1: T12, WIN, MC, MC, MC.
• Thomas – 18/1: T40, T11, MC, MC, T53.
• Smith – 20/1 : T33, T20, 78th, MC, N/A.
• Zalatoris – 22/1 : WD, N/A, N/A, N/A, N/A.
• Cantlay – 22/1 : MC, T41, T12, N/A, N/A.
• Morikawa – 25/1: WIN, N/A, N/A, N/A, N/A.
• Fleetwood – 28/1: T33, 2nd, T12, T27, MC.
• Hatton – 33/1: MC, T6, T51, MC, T5.
• Homa – 33/1: T40, N/A, N/A, N/A, N/A.

I decided to look in detail at the past Open experience of the top 15 in the betting. Over the past 2/3 years, Rahm, Lowry and Spieth have been the most consistent. Rahm with a tied third and eleventh, Spieth with a second, tied twentieth and tied ninth, and Lowry with a tied twelfth and win in 2019. Morikawa played in his first Open championship last year and won. Not bad going. McIlroy was off the charts from 2016-18, but definitely struggled the last two outings. Not too much to worry about though, with his recent major form being so strong.

Form – Past Five Tournaments Played:

• McIlroy – 8/1 : T19, T5, WIN, T18, 8th (2^nd and 5^th before that).
• Schauffele – 11/1: WIN, WIN, T14, T18, T13. (A win in the JP as well).
• Spieth – 12/1: T10, MC, T37, T18, T7.
• Rahm – 12/1: T55, T12, T10, T48, WIN.
• Scheffler – 14/1: MC, T13, T2, T18, 2nd.
• Matt Fitzpatrick – 14/1: T6, WIN, T10, MC, T5.
• Lowry – 16/1 : 9th, MC, T10, T32, T23.
• Thomas – 18/1: MC, T37, 3^rd, MC, WIN.
• Smith – 20/1 : T10, MC, T48, T13, T13.
• Zalatoris – 22/1 : MC, T2, T5, MC, 2^nd.
• Cantlay – 22/1 : T4, T13, T14, T3, MC.
• Morikawa – 25/1: MC, T5, MC, T40, T55.
• Fleetwood – 28/1: T4, T46, MC, T35, T5.
• Hatton – 33/1: T24, T56, MC, T13, T37.
• Homa – 33/1: T16, T47, T5, T23, T13.

Schauffele is by far the standout here. Two wins in a row (three if you include the JP) is incredibly impressive. The Travellers at the end of June and the Scottish Open last week. The Scottish Open win is great to see as it shows his form has translated to links golf. McIlroy’s form also stands out and he has been one of the most consistent performers all year, not finishing outside the top eight in any major. Scheffler, Fitzpatrick and Zalatoris were all on my radar for their consistent performances, but Cantlay definitely caught my eye. I didn’t realise he was playing that consistently. The others have been very hot and cold, but Spieth and Fleetwood performed well in Scotland.

Selections:  

Boy, this is a tough one. Some of the in-form players in the top 15 in the betting have some of the worst open records and the guys with the best Open records aren’t in the hottest of form right now. One selection I am sure of is McIlroy EW. Around 8/1 for someone who hasn’t finished outside of the top eight in a major this year and has a real shot at winning this one, is a good thing for me. Paddy’s are paying 12 spots as well, which is very welcome.

The boys below fit the ball striking bill and have good Open form. Hopefully they can get the job done and bring home a solid profit.

McIlroy @ 8/1: 1 point EW.

McIlroy is blistering form, he just can’t seem to get over the line in the majors this year. But he is moving in the right direction and if he keeps knocking on the door, he will get through this sticking point eventually. I realise I have tipped him for each of the last three majors, but he has brought home profit in all three. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

Schauffele @ 11/1: 1 point EW.

I can’t get away from his current form. I would be very surprised if he finishes outside the top 12. I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins it.

Tony Finau @33/1: 1 point EW.

Tipping Tony Finau makes me die inside a little. Knowing he’ll never win (but likely place) takes the sting out of it a little. With that being said, profit is profit and he is an EW machine, and in a decent bit of form. He also has some nice form in the Open. In his last five tournaments he has a, T13, MC, 2^nd, T4 and T30. In his last five Open appearances he has a, T15, 3^rd, T9, T27, T18. He hits it long and low and is a cool customer. If he places, you’ll make a tidy 4-point profit. Not too shabby.

Louis Oosthuizen @ 33/1: 0.5 points EW.

Louis is a proven course performer and going well in the LIV series, where he has a 12^th and a 5^th in the two events so far. He also had a T8 in the BMW on the DP World Tour, which was in between the LIV events. He won the Open at St. Andrews in 2010, with a second at the same event on the same course in 2015. He was tied third in the Open last year, with a T20 the year before. He just seems to make sense.

Almost made the selections…

Tyrell Hatton has his pros and cons. I love Hatton for his off-course personality, really seems like a genuinely nice guy, but his hot head on the course leaves me wondering if he can get it done in a major. He is a ridiculous talent and has clear course form, but he just misses out on my core selections because you can’t back everyone I guess.

Lowry. Our Irish hero loves the links, but his recent form just knocked him off my list.