Here we go. The big one. Super Bowl LIX kicks off shortly, with the Philadelphia Eagles looking to stop a Kansas City Chiefs 3-peat. These two absolutely went at it in Super Bowl LVII, with the Chiefs coming out victorious in a 38-35 thriller, which the Eagles will look to avenge tomorrow. KC are looking to become the first team in history to win three straight Super Bowls, solidifying themselves as one of the greatest football teams ever. These two have arguably been the best two in the league this season, with the Chiefs losing two games (including a loss to the Broncos during the last game of the season, when they rested their starters) and the Eagles going 12-1 over their last 13.

Testing some of the key match-ups would be best practice analysis, so that’s what we have done below. Hopefully it’ll will share some guidance for your inevitable game selections or same game multi.

Coaches:
KC’s Andy Reid is 3-2 in the Super Bowl and 3-1 with the Chiefs. He is one of the greatest coaches to have ever coached the game and isn’t done yet. All year the Chiefs were ravaged by injuries, but Reid kept them moving forward. He, like Mahomes, comes alive in the post season, in terms of calling plays, clearly highlighted by the Chiefs best game of the season in the AFC Conference Championship against Buffalo. He’s been here before and done that, which can’t be said wholeheartedly about his counterpart.
Nick Sirianni is a polarising character. He has made the playoffs in each of his first four seasons, including all the way to the big game, twice. But he has had the most talented team in the league on multiple occasions and still hasn’t brought home the Vince Lombardi. The city of Philly expects big things from their sports players and coaches and Sirianni can get shaky under pressure. It’ll be interesting to see how he goes in the big game, second time around.

QBs:
Stop betting against Patrick Mahomes. He may not be on one of his 50 TD seasons, but he will deliver on the biggest stage on Sunday. He has proven time and time again that even when things aren’t going right for the team, he will show up. He has four straight playoff victories when trailing at the start of the fourth quarter. The first game of that streak was against the Eagles in Super Bowl LVIII. His quarter back rating is also ten points higher in the playoffs compared to the regular season. While he’s not landing bombs down on his opponents at the moment, he is the ultimate game manager and will make THAT play when the team needs him. In a QB battle, it is very hard to go against him.
Jalen Hurts in no slouch either, however. You could also argue that his best game as a pro came in their Super Bowl against KC. He threw for over 300 yards that day with one TD through the air and three on the ground. He is constantly put down which drives that underdog mentality that I love to see in players. He is one of the best running quarterbacks in the league and now with Barkley by his side, his running lanes are opening up even more. The infamous tush push also adds to his running arsenal. He can hold on to the ball a little long, which worries me, as he is going up against the best DL in the league in Chris Jones. Including the playoffs, Chris Jones ranks third in pass rush win rate among interior defenders despite ranking fifth in double-team rate. Big match-up.

Offence versus defence:
Without a doubt the biggest match-up of this game, besides the QBs, is Saquon Barkley against the Chiefs run D. Barkley needs 30 yards to surpass Terrell Davis’ 1998 record for the most rushing yards in a single season (2,476), including the playoffs. Since Steve Spagnuolo became the Chiefs’ defensive coordinator in 2019, Kansas City has not allowed any player to rush for 100 yards against them in the playoffs. I think this match-up defines the game. Barkley is the Eagles offence and if he doesn’t fire, I can’t see them winning this. In two of their three losses this year, Barkey didn’t eclipse 100 yards.
Flipping the roles and looking at the Chiefs offence against the Eagles defence, this is a really touch match-up for KC. The Eagles were number one in yards allowed during the regular season and second in points allowed. Their defensive line is elite and they got two cornerback studs in the last draft in Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell, fixing a big gap in their passing game defence. While I think Mahomes will get MVP (if the Chiefs win of course), I think Mitchell will pick him off once.
So, what does this all mean in terms of bets? Its very hard to call, so I’m going to present two scenarios, depending on who takes home the title. Some selections do overlap, as I think they’ll happen either way.

Scenario 1 (my selection):
• Chiefs win
• Under 49.5 points
• Mahomes MVP
• Mahomes over 0.5 interceptions
• Mahomes under 273.5 yards passing
• Mahomes over 15.5 yards rushing
• Worthy over 46.5 yards receiving
18/1 bet builder (not inclusive of Mahomes MVP, which is currently evens, as Boyles don’t give it as a bet builder option).

Selection 2:
• Eagles win
• Under 49.5 points
• Barkey over 100.5 yards rushing
• Barkley anytime
• Barkley MVP
• Hurts under 276.5 yards passing
• Hurts over 21.5 yards rushing
• AJ Brown under 93.5 yards receiving
• Mahomes over 0.5 interceptions
12/1 bet builder (not inclusive of Barkley MVP, which is 5/2)