TGIS am I right? We are exactly mid-way through the 2021/22 season and week nine brings us another set of interesting games. The NAP is 5 from 7 and I feel very good about this week’s, as you’ll see from the stats. I’m hoping for some good results in the others, but regardless, they’ll be fun to watch. Check them out below and if you do have comments, you can leave them in the comments section or drop me a dm.

Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars: Bills – 13.5 (NAP)

Bills:

• Current Record: 5-2 (2-1 away).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 402.9 (6th) // Passing – 276.3 (6th) // Rushing – 126.6 (9th).
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 269.0 (1st) // Passing – 182.4 (1st) // Rushing – 86.6 (5th).
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 32.7 (1st) // PPG Allowed – 15.6 (1st).
• The Bills has allowed five passing TDs this season – fewest in NFL. The also have 11 INTs this season – tied most in NFL.
• The Bills have a points differential of +120.

Jags:

• Current Record: 1-6 (1-3 home).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 349.3 (17th) // Passing – 233.1 (20th) // Rushing – 107.9 (15th).
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 386.0 (26th) // Passing – 278.1 (30th) // Rushing – 116.1 (15th).
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 17.6 (29th) // PPG Allowed – 29.0 (29th).
• Trevor Lawrence has a 74.0 passer rating this season, which is second last against qualified QBs. The Bills have allowed a 61.4 opposition passer rating this season, which is the lowest in the NFL.

The Bills are going to smash the Jaguars. It could be argued that this is the best team in the league versus the worst. The Bills have been a complete power house on offence this season and shouldn’t face much opposition here against the Jags. The Bills are first in points scored and first in points allowed, with the highest points differential in the league. This should be a blowout, but the home field advantage for the Jags may keep it below 35…

Minnesota Vikings @ Baltimore Ravens: Ravens -6

Vikings:

• Current Record: 3-4 (1-2 away).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 394.7 (7th) // Passing – 270.7 (8th) // Rushing – 124.0 (11th).
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 367.0 (19th) // Passing – 246.1 (17th) // Rushing – 120.9 (20th).
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 23.3 (18th) // PPG Allowed – 22.4 (12th).
• The Vikings have scored fewer than 20 points in 3 of their last 4 games.

Ravens:

• Current Record: 5-2 (3-1 home).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 417.6 (3rd) // Passing – 268.1 (9th) // Rushing – 149.4 (3rd).
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 382.3 (27th) // Passing – 296.1 (26th) // Rushing – 86.1 (3rd).
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 26.7 (9th) // PPG Allowed – 23.4 (16th).
• The Ravens have won 11 straight games vs NFC opponents.

Last week the Vikings lost to a Cooper Rush led Dallas Cowboys offence and it’s not as if this week’s task is any easier. The Ravens are coming off a bye week and should be fully ready to bounce back from their 41-17 drubbing by the Cincinnati Bengals. The Vikings have been weaker against the run, while the Ravens are one of the best rushing teams in the league. The Vikings will also be without star pass rusher, Danielle Hunter as he was placed on IR during the week, following a torn pectoral muscle against the Cowboys. Lamar is a driven individual and I think he’ll lead the Ravens back to the winners enclosure this week. If the Vikings are to stay in this, their receivers will have to be on form, and Dalvin Cook will need to be on song. It should be a good game, but I have the Ravens winning this by seven.

Las Vegas Raiders @ New York Giants: Under 48.5

Raiders:

• Current Record: 5-2 (2-1 away).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 393.3 (9th) // Passing – 307.9 (2nd) // Rushing – 85.4 (30th).
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 354.0 (13th) // Passing – 222.7 (9th) // Rushing – 131.3 (29th).
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 25.7 (12th) // PPG Allowed – 23.7 (18th).
• The Raiders are unbeaten in the Rich Bisaccia era.

Giants:

• Current Record: 2-6 (1-3 home).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 345.8 (20th) // Passing – 256.5 (12th) // Rushing – 89.3 (26th).
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 368.6 (23rd) // Passing – 245.4 (16th) // Rushing – 123.3 (22nd).
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 19.5 (24th) // PPG Allowed – 25.0 (23rd).
• The Giants are 0-5 against the spread in their last five home games against teams with a winning record.

Another mentally tough week for the Raiders is in the books. Not only have they had to deal with Jon Gruden’s email scandal, they now have to deal with the fall out of Henry Ruggs’ horrendous and very sad speeding incident. They also have to travel cross-country to play a game at would be their 10am. The Giants put up a good performance against the Chiefs on Monday night, holding them to 20 points. The Giants will still be without a number of key offensive starters so I think this will be a close low(ish) scoring game. The Raiders have a strong pass rush as well, so they should keep Daniel Jones in check. The points is high here, so I like the under to hit.

New England Patriots @ Carolina Panthers: Patriots -2.5

Patriots:

• Current Record: 4-4 (3-0 away)
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 354.6 (16th) // Passing – 253.4 (13th) // Rushing – 101.3 (22nd)
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 352.9 (12th) // Passing – (14th) // Rushing – 112.9 (16th)
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 25.8 (11th) // PPG Allowed – 20.5 (8th)
• The Patriots have won 3 of their last 4 games.

Panthers:

• Current Record: 4-4 (1-2 home)
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 328.5 (26th) // Passing – 214.0 (29th) // Rushing – 114.5 (16th)
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 295.6 (2nd) // Passing – 188.9 (2nd) // Rushing – 106.8 (14th)
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 20.6 (22nd) // PPG Allowed – 19.9 (5th).

The Patriots are in a really strong run of form. They have won three of the last four games and took down the Chargers 27-24 away from home last week. They are 3-0 away from home, as Big Ole Billy will look to make it 4-0 away this week in Carolina. The Panthers snapped their four game losing streak against the Falcons, beating them 19-13. They did hold Atlanta to 213 total offensive yards, but the Falcons were without star receiver Calvin Ridley. The Falcons have been very hit or miss this season, so I won’t be getting ahead of myself with the Panthers. Darnold is still questionable for the game, but even if he is playing, Belichick should scheme up a good defensive plan to stop him. The Panthers are mid table against the run and the Patriots have been good rushing the ball recently, so that could be the difference maker.

All Sunday Picks:

• Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints: Saints – 6
• Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars: Bills – 13.5 (NAP)
• Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals: Browns +3.5
• Denver Broncos @ Dallas Cowboys: Under 49.5
• Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins: Texans +5.5
• Las Vegas Raiders @ New York Giants: Under 48.5
• Minnesota Vikings @ Baltimore Ravens: Ravens -6
• New England Patriots @ Carolina Panthers: Patriots -2.5
• LA Chargers @ Philadelphia Eagles: Chargers Straight Bet
• Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers: Over 44.5
• Green Bay Packers @ Kansas City Chiefs: Packers +7.5
• Tennessee Titans @ LA Rams: Rams -6.5
• Chicago Bears @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Under 39.5

€5 to €500 Challenge:

+ Boston Scott over 42.5 yards rushing!

J.

CURRENT RECORD: 23-32