Got a funny one for ye. I put on a treble the other day – Scott Barnes to win NBA Offensive Rookie of the Year, Myles Garrett to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year, and Steph Curry to win NBA MVP. The next evening Steph Curry has the worst shooting night of his career, where he shot under 20% from the field. HIS CAREER! Can’t make this stuff up.

Anyway, on to week 13 in the NFL and it’s looking like a week for the favourites. We had a solid week last week, going 8-4. Not quite the 10-2 I predicted, but a couple of unlucky situations cost us on the handicaps. I’m feeling another strong week, this week, and my initial gut feeling when seeing the handicaps was good. The data backs up my gut as well, which is always positive. Check out the previews below.

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans: Colts -9.5 (NAP)

Colts:

• Current Record: 6-6 (3-2 away).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 366.3 (11th) // Passing – 221.8 (22nd) // Rushing – 144.5 (4th).
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 358.8 (18th) // Passing – 244.7 (19th) // Rushing – 114.2 (18th)
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 28.3 (4th) // PPG Allowed – 23.6 (20th).
• Turnover Differential: +12 (1st).
• Injury Report (Out): N/A.
• Jonathan Taylor leads the NFL in rushing yards with 1205.

Texans:

• Current Record: 2-9 (1-4 home).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 264.8 (32nd) // Passing – 186.5 (31st) // Rushing – 78.3 (32nd).
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 378.1 (29th) // Passing – 242.5 (15th) // Rushing – 135.6 (31st)
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 14.9 (32nd) // PPG Allowed – 26.5 (28th).
• Turnover Differential: +2 (11th).
• Injury Report (Out): Danny Amendola – WR, DeMarcus Walker – DE, Terrence Brooks – S, Justin McCray – G.
• The Texans have scored less than 10 points in five games this season.

My sorry Texans have been on the receiving end of a few NAPS this season. The disgraces. As you can tell, I am in a foul humour with them after they lost to the Jets in week 12. The Zach Wilson led Jets. The Texans haven’t put up more than 14 points in the last three games and it doesn’t look like they will do any better here.

The Colts had a titanic showdown with the Bucs last week, narrowly losing 38-31. Wentz had an up and down game, passing for three TDs and two INTs. His two INTs likely cost them the game, which I’m sure was tough to take for Colts fans. But there were a lot of positives to take away from it for Indianapolis. Jonathan Taylor had a slow day for his standards, rushing for 83 yards and TD, and the Colts still stayed in it. They are heating up at a good time and are certainly in with a shout for the playoffs.

More bad news for the Texans. They have the second worst ranked rushing defence in the league, which is not the stat you want to be seeing as you face the best rusher around. The Texans can’t run the ball and can’t stop the run, and that’s a dangerous combination to have in the NFL. The Colts RUN away with this and put up some big numbers. Take the -9.5 and RUN. Sorry.

LA Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals: Bengals -2.5

Chargers:

• Current Record: 6-5 (3-2 away).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 383.8 (8th) // Passing – 280.8 (6th) // Rushing – 103.0 (22nd).
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 350.2 (14th) // Passing – 204.9 (5th) // Rushing – 145.3 (32nd)
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 24.8 (14th) // PPG Allowed – 26.6 (29th).
• Turnover Differential: 0 (17th).
• Injury Report (Out): Asante Samuel Jr. – CB, Linval Joseph – DT.
• The Chargers have allowed 24+ points and 300+ total yards in seven straight games, which is the longest active streak in the NFL.

Bengals:

• Current Record: 7-4 (3-2 home).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 355.5 (13th) // Passing – 243.6 (12th) // Rushing – 111.9 (17th).
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 348.2 (13th) // Passing – 254.5 (25th) // Rushing – 93.7 (4th)
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 28.1 (6th) // PPG Allowed – 20.5 (6th).
• Turnover Differential: -1 (18th).
• Injury Report (Out): A lot of binmen.
• The Bengals have an average winning margin of 24.3 points over their last four games.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons: Over 50.5

Bucs:

• Current Record: 8-3 (3-3 away).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 401.7 (3rd) // Passing – 305.9 (1st) // Rushing – 95.8 (23rd).
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 328.5 (8th) // Passing – 247.5 (20th) // Rushing – 81.0 (1st)
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 31.5 (1st) // PPG Allowed – 23.0 (17th).
• Turnover Differential: +8 (6th).
• Injury Report (Out): Jordan Whitehead – S, Richard Sherman – CB.
• Brady is 9-0 against Atlanta during his career.
• Bucs have a 94+ point differential this season (4th).

Falcons:

• Current Record: 5-6 (1-4 home).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 310.5 (27th) // Passing – 225.5 (19th) // Rushing – 85.0 (30th).
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 361.8 (22nd) // Passing – 236.9 (14th) // Rushing – 124.9 (23rd)
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 18.1 (27th) // PPG Allowed – 27.5 (31st).
• Turnover Differential: -7 (27th).
• Injury Report (Out): Calvin Ridley – WR, Hayden Hurst – TE, Jonathan Bullard – DE.
• Matt Ryan has less than 200 yards passing in three straight games.
• Falcons have a -103-point differential this season (28th).

I initially had this selection as Bucs -10.5, but felt a little iffy with it, as the Bucs are not the same team away as they are at home. But Brady has never lost to Atlanta during his career, including three wins since he has joined the Bucs. The Bucs also have a 41.0 PPG average in that three-game span, which is absolutely ridiculous. If they were to sustain that scoring average, we would only need Matty Ice and the Falcons to put up 10 points, which they would likely do against a weak Tampa Bay secondary. Last week, Carson Wentz and Co. put up 31 points in Lucas Oil Stadium.

Brady will not be stopped here. The Bucs are the number one offence in terms of points scored and the Falcons are the 31st ranked defence in terms of points allowed. The stats would say that the Bucs should blowout the Falcons, but the fact that Atlanta will have to abandon the run (Bucs #1 ranked rush defence) and start slinging it around, which teams have had success with against Tampa, means they might keep it within the massive handicap. The good news for us is the clock will tick slowly, and points will be scored. I really like the over here.

Washington Football Team @ Las Vegas Raiders: Raiders -1.5

Football Team:

• Current Record: 5-6 (2-3 away).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 349.9 (19th) // Passing – 224.4 (20th) // Rushing – 125.5 (9th).
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 359.3 (18th) // Passing – 266.6 (30th) // Rushing – 92.6 (3rd)
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 20.8 (20th) // PPG Allowed – 25.6 (25th).
• Turnover Differential: -4 (25th).
• Injury Report (Out): JD McKissic, Landon Collins – S, Chase Young – DE, Montez Sweat – DE, Joey Slye – K, Wes Schweitzer – G.
• Football Team are 0-4 versus AFC teams this season.

Raiders:

• Current Record: 6-5 (3-3 home).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 385.6 (6th) // Passing – 296.5 (2nd) // Rushing – 89.1 (27th).
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 360.5 (21st) // Passing – 234.6 (13th) // Rushing – 125.9 (25th)
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 23.5 (17th) // PPG Allowed – 26.8 (30th).
• Turnover Differential: 0 (16th).
• Injury Report (Out): Trayvon Mullen – CB, Carl Nassib – DE, Patrick Onwuasor – LB, Darren Waller – TE.

• Per NFL.com, Derek Carr is averaging 310 yards passing per game this season. Leads the NFL.
• The Raiders lead the NFL in QB pressure rate – 35%.

Don’t let that victory over Seattle fool you, the Seahawks are a terrible team, and they should have at least brought the game against Washington to overtime last week. That game was at home as well for Washington. Unfortunately, this week they have to make the cross-country journey to sin city, to face the Raidaaaaass. The Raiders are coming off a big overtime win in Dallas, on Thanksgiving and should come into the contest with some confidence. Carr is absolutely slinging it, averaging over 300 yards passing per game, and he won’t face much opposition in this game against the 30th ranked passing defence.

The only slight worry here is that the Raiders have been conceding points like it’s going out of fashion. They have conceded over 30 points per game in their last three contests, but to be fair to Vegas, those games have been against elite offences – Cowboys, Bengals and Chiefs. Waller being out also doesn’t help, but Washington isn’t an offensive juggernaut, and the Raiders pass rush is elite. I would expect Vegas to win here by between 3-7 points. I like this bet a lot.

All Sunday/Monday Picks:

Confident:

Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears: Under 43.5 (weather is looking Hella bad in Chicago)

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans: -9.5

LA Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals: Bengals -2.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons: Over 50.5

Washington Football Team @ Las Vegas Raiders: Raiders -1.5

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Ravens -4.5

Jacksonville Jaguars @ LA Rams: Rams -13

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks: 49ers -3.5

Meh:

New York Giants@ Miami Dolphins: Under 39.5

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets: Eagles -6.5

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs: Broncos +10

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills: +3

Not Confident:

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions: Lions +7.5

€5 to €500 Challenge:

J.

NAP: 7-10

CURRENT RECORD: 58-73