Well Thursday night was a disaster. ‘Watch yo profanities’. But we carry on. Some sloppy TNF game isn’t going to slow us down. Roll on Sunday week ten.

Some weekend of sports, lads. Rachel Blackmore back doing untold in Cheltenham and Ireland v All Blacks. All topped off with a bookie bashing on the football.

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets: Bills – 12

Bills:

• Current Record: 5-3 (2-2 away).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 390.1 (8th) // Passing – 270.4 (7th) // Rushing – 119.8 (11th).
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 262.6 (1st) // Passing – 177.0 (1st) // Rushing – 85.6 (4th).
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 29.4 (4th) // PPG Allowed – 14.8 (1st).
• Turnover Differential: +11 (1st)
• The Bills defence is legit.

Jets:

• Current Record: 2-6 (2-1 home).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 328.9 (24th) // Passing – 251.8 (14th) // Rushing – 77.1 (30th)
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 408.1 (32nd) // Passing – 274.9 (30th) // Rushing – 133.3 (28th)
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 18.0 (28th) // PPG Allowed – 31.4 (32nd)
• Turnover Differential: -12 (32nd)

I am an absolute sucker for hardship and punishment, and here I am returning to my Buffalo Bills on another massive handicap. They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result? One Josh Allen had a stinker last week and the other balled out. Just not the way we expected.

This is a get right game for Buffalo and I think they’ll steady the ship. The only danger is White Hot Mike is back for the Jets. He came out during the week and said he should have been the number one pick in his draft. He was drafted in the fifth round. Got to love the confidence.

Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers: Under 49.5

Seahawks:

• Current Record: 3-5 (2-2 away).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 314.0 (30th) // Passing – 211.1 (27th) // Rushing – 102.9 (21st).
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 401.5 (31st) // Passing – 273.9 (30th) // Rushing – 127.6 (25th).
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 22.6 (19th) // PPG Allowed – 21.1 (9th).
• Turnover Differential: +4 (8th)

Packers:

• Current Record: 7-2 (3-0 away).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 333.4 (22nd) // Passing – 223.8 (23rd) // Rushing – 109.7 (18th)
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 321.2 (5th) // Passing – 210.4 (7th) // Rushing – 110.8 (17th)
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 22.1 (20th) // PPG Allowed – 20.0 (6th)
• Turnover Differential: +6 (4th)

I am going to keep this short and sweet. It’s due to snow in Green Bay tomorrow evening. Even if it wasn’t snowing, both defences are sneaky good. Green Bay are good overall defensively and Seattle has a strong points allowed of 21.1. I would like the under here regardless.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts: Under 48.5

Jags:

• Current Record: 2-6 (0-3 away).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 332.9 (22nd) // Passing – 221.4 (24th) // Rushing – 111.5 (16th).
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 375.4 (24th) // Passing – 272.0 (27th) // Rushing – 103.4 (12th)
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 16.5 (31st) // PPG Allowed – 26.1 (27th)
• Turnover differential: -9 (31st)

Colts:

• Current Record: 4-5 (2-3 home).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 371.0 (12th) // Passing – 238.9 (18th) // Rushing – 137.3 (5th).
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 367.2 (20th) // Passing – 260.8 (23rd) // Rushing – 106.4 (13th)
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 27.2 (7th) // PPG Allowed – 23.7 (14th)
• Turnover differential: +10 (2nd)
• Indianapolis is Football Outsiders’ top-ranked rush defence (DVOA).

To start with, this game is an AFC South divisional game and divisional games are always going to be a bit more squeaky bum. The Jaguars defence showed up in a big way against the Bills last week, only allowing six total points. It was Josh Allen’s (QB) worst game of his career, but the Jacksonville D still performed well. The Colts conceded 30 points to the Jets during TNF, but most of them were in garbage time, as the game was out of sight. The Jaguars are not going to score points and if their defence could have 75% of the game they had last week, the under should hit here.

Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Chargers: Over 52.5

Vikings:

• Current Record: 3-5 (1-3 away).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 385.1 (9th) // Passing – 260.3 (10th) // Rushing – 124.9 (9th).
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 383.6 (28th) // Passing – 247.0 (16th) // Rushing – 136.6 (30th).
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 24.3 (17th) // PPG Allowed – 23.9 (17th).
• Turnover differential: +6 (5th)

Chargers:

• Current Record: 5-3 (2-2 home).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 384.9 (10th) // Passing – 282.4 (5th) // Rushing – 102.5 (22nd).
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 358.6 (16th) // Passing – 197.7 (3rd) // Rushing – 161.6 (32nd).
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 24.9 (14th) // PPG Allowed – 25.1(23rd).
• Turnover differential: +2 (14th)

The Vikings are the best 3-5 team in the league, by a mile. Their strength is also LA’s weakness. Pounding that rock is what Mike Zimmer likes to do, and they’ll have plenty of opportunity to do that here. Dalvin Cook is currently caught up in a messy domestic violence case but is still active to play. If for some reason he doesn’t play, Matteson will step in and fill his role pretty well. On the defensive side of the ball for the Vikings, they are missing some of their best defensive players. Anthony Barr, Danielle Hunter and Patrick Peterson are all out. This is not good when you’re trying to slow down the extremely talented, Justin Herbert.

Herbert had a great game last week away in Philly, throwing for 356 yards and three touchdowns. With Peterson out for the Vikings, I like Herbert to go mad and put up some serious numbers. The last two games at home for the Chargers have both gone over fifty and it looks like something similar could occur here.

All Sunday/Monday Picks

• Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys: Cowboys -9.5
• Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets: Bills – 12
• Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots: Browns +3
• Detroit Lions @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Lions +8.5
• Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts: Under 48.5
• New Orleans Saints @ Tennessee Titans: Titans -2.5 (but I honestly haven’t a clue)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Football Team: WFT +10
• Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals: Under 44.5
• Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Chargers: Over 52.5
• Philadelphia Eagles @ Denver Broncos: Broncos Straight Up
• Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers: Under 49.5
• Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders: Raiders +3.5
• Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers: Under 50

€5 to €500 Challenge

J.

CURRENT RECORD: 31-42