WEEK 5 SUNDAY RECORD: 2-4.

WEEK 5 SUNDAY PROFIT/LOSS: -2.18 points.

NAP RECORD: 1-3.

2023 OVERALL RECORD: 23-31.

2023 TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: -10.53 points.

2022 TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: +21.32 points.

DENVER BRONCOS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Location: Arrowhead, Kansas City.

Weather: 23*C, moderate breeze.

Spread: Chiefs -10.5.

Over/Under: +/- 47.5.

GAME PREVIEW:

The 1-4 Denver Broncos travel to the 4-1 Kansas City Chiefs, later on tonight, to take part in the first of two clashes in the 2023 season. The Chiefs have won the last fifteen straight games, meaning that Denver hasn’t had a happy memory playing Kansas since Peyton Manning was starting under centre. Both teams have had different starts to the year, and Kansas clearly have had the upper hand in recent memory, but Denver never go down without a fight.

The starting spread today is +10.5, which the Chiefs haven’t won by since their December match-up in 2021. The three games following that finished, 28-24, 34-28 and 27-24, to the Chiefs. The Broncos are also 4-1 against the spread, against the Chiefs, and the Chiefs have kind of struggled so far this year, except for the Chicago game. But. And it’s a big but. The Broncos are dead last in total yards allowed, points allowed and rushing yards allowed. They are 29^th in passing yards allowed, which is slightly better, I guess…

Looking at the Chiefs defence, they are 10^th in total yards allowed, 13^th in passing yards allowed, 11^th in rushing yards allowed and 6^th in total points allowed per game. They have improved since last year but face a Denver team where the offence isn’t the problem. Denver is currently middle of the pack in terms of most statistical yardage categories and top ten in the points for category. Russell Wilson has been excellent this year, currently sitting second in passer rating. Jerry Jeudy got in the mix last week and new running back, Jaleel McLaughlin has been filling Javonte Williams’ boots pretty well, while he deals with injury.

Looking at the Denver defence, you would say that Mahomes and Reid will cut them apart, but Mahomes has struggled so far this year. Besides the Chicago game, his touchdowns to interceptions is 6 to 4. Kelce is also banged up and the young receiving group is still gelling together. I could be very wrong with this, but I like Denver to cover. They have covered +9 and +12.5 in their last two games against the Chiefs and they could do the same again here.

BETS:

• Broncos +10.5. 1 point @ 10/11.
• Pacheco over 76.5 rushing. 1 point @ 10/11