NAP RECORD: 7-4.
OVERALL RECORD: 91-85-4.
TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: +35.51 points.
WEEK 11 RECORD: 6-8-1.
WEEK 11 PROFIT/LOSS: –1.73 points.
Thanksgiving Bets:
Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions: Bills -9.5, 1 point @ 10/11
I’m really hoping this is a good game. Two top tier offences going at it, and an underdog on the rise, with a decent win streak on the go. The Bills are making it two weeks in a row in Ford Field, as they join Detroit in their Thanksgiving tradition. The Bills are coming off a solid win against the Browns, where they let a few points slip in the final quarter, however. The Lions are coming off a huge away win against the Giants, where they dominated on the ground with four rushing touchdowns.
Looking ahead to this game, the spread and the points total are both big. The spread is currently sitting at 9.5 and the points total is 54.5. I would say that this game will do well to hit the 54.5, for the same reason I think Buffalo will win this by more than 9.5 points. The Bills can really shut down the run game that Detroit is built around. In last week’s win against the Browns, the Bills held Chubb to 19 yards rushing and Kareem Hunt to 32 yards rushing. They did get sliced open through the air, but their dominance against the run game, should not be ignored. This run stopping dominance is backed up their defensive DVOA ranking of fourth in the league and should make it very hard for Detroit to build into this game. Goff can be really good at times and his relationship with Amon Ra St. Brown is elite, but the Bills pass rush should put him in a blender in this game, despite their couple of injuries.
Even though the Bills put up 31 points last week against the Browns, they didn’t score a touchdown in the first or fourth quarter. They also went the last two quarters against the Vikings without scoring a touchdown in the second half. This would be a slight worry if they were playing a team other than the Lions. But they aren’t. The Lions are ranked 32nd in terms of yards and points allowed and 28th in terms of passing yards allowed. The Bills should carve them open and win this one easy.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys: Cowboys -9.5, 1.5 points @ 5/6
Well, the Boys made me look silly on Sunday night, didn’t they? Beating Minnesota 40-3 in their backyard is quite the statement. They dominated on both sides of the ball, even keeping Justin Jefferson to 33 total yards. Dalvin Cook had 72 yards rushing, from 11 carries, which is decent, but they had to abandon the run fairly early though, as they were down big and needed to try and claw the game back. If the game was tighter, he would have definitely put up bigger numbers, which is important for Thursday’s game with the Giants, as they face Saquon. The Cowboys have an elite defence, but if there is one very small chink in the armour, it’s their run defence. They are second in overall defensive DVOA, ninth in total yards allowed, first in total points allowed, but 26th in terms of rushing yards allowed. Even so, I don’t think Saquon will be too much of an issue here, as he is their only real offensive weapon, besides Daniel Jones’ rushing ability. In their week three matchup, the Cooper Rush led Cowboys won 23-16, where Saquon rushed for 81 yards (5.79 average) and Jones ran for 79 yards (8.78 average). Jones didn’t throw for a single touchdown and this game was in MetLife. I would worry about how well the Giants offence will fair in Jerry World.
Staying on the topic of offence, the Cowboys offence is cookin. They have put up 40, 28 and 49 points, respectively, over their last three games. The 49 points was against a weak Bear’s defence, but Green Bay and Minnesota have solid defensive units. Dak has really helped them going forward, but Tony Pollard has been the star of the show. Over that same three game stretch, Pollard has put 464 total yards and six touchdowns. In their week three matchup with the Giants, Pollard had 105 yards rushing, to go along with Zeke’s 75 yards. The Giants also just conceded four rushing touchdowns to the Lions, and with their defence starting to struggle, I like the Cowboys to get a huge win during this Thanksgiving matchup.
New England Patriots @ Minnesota Vikings: Patriots +2.5, 1 point @ 10/11
Kirk Cousins is 2-10 in primetime games and while this isn’t a prime primetime game (the Cowboys game on Thanksgiving is always the most watched), it will still draw huge numbers of viewers. The Vikings are coming off a disastrous loss to the Cowboys, last week, where they got handed a 40-3 loss, at home. Cousins threw for 105 yards and got benched for Nick Mullens before the game was over. Mullens came on when the game was out of sight, but it doesn’t bode well coming into this matchup that Kirk Thuggins didn’t have one single touchdown pass against the Cowboys. The Patriots have the number one defence in the league and their pass defence is operating at an insane level. They are the number one ranked defence in terms of DVOA and have a top-level pass rush, just like the Cowboys. Matthew Judon is playing at an all-pro level and will be sure to be putting pressure on Cousins, especially with OT Christian Darrisaw out. Even with Jefferson, Cook, Hockenson and Thielen, I would have a slight worry about how much Cousins’ can move the ball. Not to take last week in isolation, but it didn’t fill me with a lot of confidence.
Something else that hasn’t filled me with confidence recently is the Patriots offence. They had put up three total points against the Jets, before they sealed the win with their crazy punt return touchdown, in the dying seconds. Mac Jones hasn’t been great since he came back from injury, but he did put up a respectable 246 passing yards last week. The Patriots will likely lean on the run here, as Minnesota are middle of the pack in terms of run D and got carved open last week against the Cowboys. Stevenson and Harris are as good as they come, and I think the combination of their potent run attack and the overall Patriots defence, should be enough to get the job done and at least cover the spread.
Player Prop Bets & Acca:
One point on each selection and the acca.
0 Comments