NFL Super Wild Card Weekend – Sun

by | Mar 26, 2022 | NFL

I don’t know about ye, but I thoroughly enjoyed last night. The Raiders and Bengals game was interesting, and the Bills win against the Patriots was spectacular. We went 2-0 for the game calls and you can just ignore the side bets and player props…

Against The Spread (ATS): 2-0

Side Bet: 0-2

Player Prop: 1-1

Sunday finna be lit. Three games on the slate and one early kick-off for us time-zone challenged viewers.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bucs -7.5

Eagles:

  • End of Season Record: 9-8 (6-3 away)
  • Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 359.9 (14th) // Passing – 200.2 (25th) // Rushing – 159.7 (1st).
  • Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 328.8 (10th) // Passing – 220.9 (11th) // Rushing – 107.9 (9th)
  • Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 26.1 (12th) // PPG Allowed – 22.6 (18th).
  • Turnover Differential: 0 (18th).
  • Injury Report (Out): Marlon Tuipulotu – DT.
  • Against the Spread: 8-8-1.

Bucs:

  • End of Season Record: 13-4 (7-1 home)
  • Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 405.9 (2nd) // Passing – 307.6 (1st) // Rushing – 98.4 (26th).
  • Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 331.5 (13th) // Passing – 238.9 (21st) // Rushing – 92.5 (3rd)
  • Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 30.1 (2nd) // PPG Allowed – 20.8 (5th).
  • Turnover Differential: +10 (6th).
  • Injury Report (Out): Cyril Grayson – WR, Ronald Jones – RB, Playoff Lenny – RB.
  • Against the Spread: 9-8.
  • Weather Report (YR Weather): 17*C with a fresh breeze.

The number one rushing offence travels to the number one passing offence in Raymond James Stadium, as the Philly Eagles take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in our early Sunday game. The Young Eagle takes on the Old Buc, as Jalen Hurts will look to confirm himself as an NFL starting QB by putting it up to Brady & Co. The two teams last met in October, where the Bucs took home an away W, winning by six in Lincoln Financial Field. The score line was slighted flattered by the fact Philly grabbed a TD with 5:54 left in the fourth, but overall, the Eagles didn’t do too badly.

The Eagles have been on an ok run over the last few games, winning four of their last five. Their second string got blown out by the Cowboys in week 18, but I wouldn’t read too much into that. The four wins in a row sounds good, but two of those were against Washington, one against the Giants, and one against the Jets. Three teams not known for their offensive prowess. Their two wins previous to that were in weeks 10 and 11 and were against Denver and New Orleans. Two good wins, but nothing mind-blowing. Looking back on some of their losses (Dallas x2, Tampa, Chargers, Vegas, Kansas), they do not fare well against big play passing offences. Will it be the same here?

The Bucs are the number passing offence in the league and they will have to lean on it heavy tonight, whether they like it or not. RBs Ronald Jones and Playoff Lenny Fournette are out with injury, so up step Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Le’Veon Bell. Giovanni Bernard is also questionable, as the Bucs RB room is stripped to the bare bones. But all that doesn’t matter, Tom Brady is the Goat for a reason. Godwin and Antonio Brown won’t be around, but Mike Evans and Gronk are two of the best to do it. The Bucs are also getting healthier on defence, as a number of key starters return from injury, such as LBs LaVonte David and Shaq Barrett.

The Bucs have scored 40 points, on average, at home this season and with their defensive depth looking better, I think they take this one and cover the spread fairly comfortably.

  • Side Bet: Over 46 total points.
  • Player Prop: Gronk anytime.

 

San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys: 49ers +3.5

49ers:

  • End of Season Record: 10-7 (6-3 away)
  • Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 375.7 (7th) // Passing – 248.3 (12th) // Rushing – 127.4 (7th).
  • Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 310.0 (3rd) // Passing – 206.5 (6th) // Rushing – 103.5 (7th)
  • Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 25.1 (13th) // PPG Allowed – 21.5 (10th).
  • Turnover Differential: -4 (23rd).
  • Injury Report (Out): Mo Sanu – WR
  • Against the Spread: 9-8-0.

Cowboys:

  • End of Season Record: 12-5 (5-3 home)
  • Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 407.0 (1st) // Passing – 282.4 (2nd) // Rushing – 124.6 (9th).
  • Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 351.0 (19th) // Passing – 238.2 (19th) // Rushing – 112.8 (16th)
  • Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 31.2 (1st) // PPG Allowed – 21.1 (7th).
  • Turnover Differential: +14 (1st).
  • Injury Report (Out): Israel Mukuamu – S, Keanu Neal – LB.
  • Against the Spread: 13-4-0.
  • Weather Report (YR Weather): Indoor Stadium.

I am really looking forward to this game. I think this could be the tightest game of the night, which the bookies tend to agree with, having it as a 3/3.5-point spread. The 49ers have won seven of their last nine and the Cowboys have won five of their last six.

I am going to have to be honest here and say that I am a little biased towards the Niners. I said at the start of the season that they might get hot around this time, and they look to be doing just that. In that nine-game stretch where they notched up seven wins, they beat the Rams twice, Falcons, Bengals, the mighty Texans, and Vikings. They are running the ball extremely well (as expected), Jimmy G is picking his passes, and Nick Bosa and the defensive unit are playing at an elite level. In weeks 10-18, the defence only allowed 18.1 PPG and 78.6 rush YPG, while also notching up 15 takeaways and 30 sacks.

The Cowboys are an interesting team this season. If you were to look at the stats for their last six games, where they have won five, you would say that they are up there with the best units in football. But the opposition has been terrible. In that six-game stretch, they have played the WFT x2, Giants, Eagles second team, Cardinals and Saints. Their one loss coming against the one decent team, the Cardinals. While the Cowboys have put up two 50 burgers in that stretch, that Cardinals game has left a sour taste in my mouth. The Cardinals are not in a good place at the moment and they beat Dallas in their own back yard.

To stay unbiased, I will say, if the Cowboys can get moving on offence, they won’t be beaten. They are the number one offence in the league, due to the stars they have – Zeke, Pollard, Prescott, Lamb, Cooper and Schultz. I just think Kyle Shanahan will help edge this one for San Fran. I like the 49ers to take this one straight up, but I’ll give myself the buffer of the +3.5 handicap. Lol.

  • Side Bet: N/a.
  • Player Prop: Kittle over 4.5 receptions.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs: Chiefs -12.5

Steelers:

  • End of Season Record: 9-7-1 (3-5 away)
  • Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 315.4 (23rd) // Passing – 222.2 (15th) // Rushing – 93.1 (29th).
  • Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 361.1 (24th) // Passing – 215.1 (9th) // Rushing – 146.1 (32nd)
  • Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – (21st) // PPG Allowed – 23.4 (20th).
  • Turnover Differential: +2 (14th).
  • Injury Report (Out): Buddy Johnson – LB, James Pierre – CB.
  • Against the Spread: 8-9-0.

Chiefs:

  • End of Season Record: 12-5 (7-2 home)
  • Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 396.8 (3rd) // Passing – 281.8 (4th) // Rushing – 115.0 (16th).
  • Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 368.9 (27th) // Passing – 251.4 (27th) // Rushing – 117.6 (21st)
  • Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 28.2 (4th) // PPG Allowed – 21.4 (8th).
  • Turnover Differential: +4 (11th).
  • Injury Report (Out): Clyde Edwards-Helaire – RB.
  • Against the Spread: 8-9-0.
  • Weather Report (YR Weather): 0*C with a gentle breeze.

I’m going to set the scene with some Chiefs/Mahomes post season stats:

  • Mahomes has 15 passing TDs and 0 INTs in six career home playoff starts.
  • Mahomes is 6-0 in the post season vs QBs not named Tom Brady.
  • The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five playoff home games.

During the Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes era, the Chiefs have been utterly dominant in the playoffs against everyone not named Brady. Mahomes is the definition of a big-time player and has the fifth highest passer rating of all time, in the playoffs. He has always thrown big and accurate, and led his team with elite performances.

The Chiefs have a strong home record, only losing to the Chargers and Bills in weeks three and five and have stepped up their game since then. They have only lost one game since week seven, which was the nail-biter that they should have won against the Bengals in week 17. The Chiefs dominated the Steelers in week 16, winning 36-10, as Mahomes threw for 258 yards and three TDs. The Chiefs are obviously one of the best, if not the best, passing teams in the league, but how will they match up against the Steelers defence this week?

The Steelers got into the playoffs on the back of a wild ending to week 18. They narrowly edged the Ravens in overtime and somehow wriggled their way in, taking the Chargers place, as the Bolts lost to the Raiders in overtime. At this moment in time, the Steelers are reminding me of that time in the Simpsons when Homer becomes a boxer and just stands there getting pummelled, waiting for his opponent to tire himself out. They are somehow still standing. Credit has to go to Mike Tomlin, who has never had a losing regular season.

While Big Ben is a walking fridge, ready for the scrap yard, he has the second most playoff wins amongst active QBs (13). The Steelers lost by 26 in week 16, but I don’t think it’ll be that much here. The Steelers weakness is their run defence, which is good for them, as running isn’t the Chiefs’ strength. I am so back and forth on the spread for this one, but the fact that Pittsburgh enters into this week after two divisional matches in a row, and Mahomes being a general sicko in the playoffs, I’ll go with Kansas -12.5. However, I’m not happy about it.

  • Side Bet: Chiefs -3.5 first quarter (like I said, ignore it).
  • Player Prop: Darrell Williams over 56.5 yards rushing.

J.

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