NAP RECORD: 0-0.

2024 OVERALL RECORD: 0-0.

2024 TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: +/-0.

We are so back. The months have flown by, with NFL week one upon us, as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Baltimore Ravens, in a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship. Both teams have had big losses and big gains to their roster, so this match could be an exciting one, with Arrowhead likely rocking on Thursday night… A few notable items have caught my eye that are up for consideration when looking to have a punt on this one.

Mahomes vs Jackson
Mahomes is 4-1 against Jackson, including that big playoff game. He shines brightest when the brightest lights shine on him, but the same can’t be said for Jackson, who has often struggled in big games. He is a two-time MVP, but outside of last year, hasn’t had that much success in the playoffs or huge games. He also had the second-best defence in the league last year, but I‘ll touch on that below. Even with Jackson supported by a few points on the spread, I like Mahomes to get another week one win here and to carry his team to their ninth win in their last ten week one games.

Defence
These were the number one and two defences last year but have since lost some big names. L’Jarius Sneed and Willie Gay both departed the Chiefs during the offseason, with Sneed heading to Tennessee and Gay heading to New Orleans. Bad news you might say, but certainly not as bad as the Ravens, as they lost Jadeveon Clowney, Ronald Darby, Patrick Queen and Geno Stone. Big departures from all lines of the Baltimore defence does not fill me with confidence, as they head into a match where their opponent won eight of nine games at home last year.

Andy Reid
As noted above, the Chiefs have won nine of their last ten week one games, and Reid has been a big part of that. His one loss did come last year however, as the Lions rattled them at home, but his 7-3 record against the spread gives me a lot of hope they bounce back here. Reid is one of the most creative offensive minds in football and with a whole summer to prepare for this game, I like him to get them clicking going forward, while Spags keeps the Ravens out on the other side of the ball.

Bet: Chiefs -2.5 @ 1.86/1
Keeping it small as the first few weeks always do damage. Have fun!