NAP RECORD: 1-3.

2024 OVERALL RECORD: 8-8.

2024 TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: -0.70 point.

Colts @ Vikings: Vikings -5.5, 1 point @ 20/23.

Look. The Joe Flacco comeback story has been great. He’s playing well and not making mistakes. He has thrown seven touchdowns to one INT, which is pretty outrageous considering he didn’t have a job at the beginning of last year. Shane Steichen says that the old dog gives them the best chance to win right now, which may be true in the grand scheme of the season, but I would disagree for this particular game. Brian Flores’ Minnesota pass defence has been electric this year and have been blitzing as much as any other defence. I worry that Flacco is not going to be quick enough if he needs to escape and scramble and this could get physical on him. On the plus side for the Colts, Jonathan Taylor is back and looking good and will look to expose a leaky run defence, who just got carved up by the Rams and Lions. While Taylor and the run game will likely do well, I don’t think they have enough fire power to stay with Jefferson, Addison, Jones and a healthy TJ Hockenson, who returns for his first game of the season. SKOL.

Commanders @ Giants: Commanders – 3.5, 1 point @ 20/23.

The Commanders are a really good football team. They got lucky with a Hail Mary last week against Chicago but seem to have fixed up their defence over the last few weeks. They only conceded 15 points against a good Chicago offence and only seven points against a bad Panthers offence the week before. Granted, it’s the Panthers, but they play another bad offence this week in New York. The Giants are also struggling to stop the run, so Brian Robinson, Austin Ekeler and Jayden Daniels should dominate on the ground and control the game, even away from home. On the other side of the ball for the Giants, they are a bottom seven offence in terms of yards per game and the second lowest scoring team in the league. Even if this is a divisional match-up, I struggle to see New York keeping this within a touchdown.

Broncos @ Ravens: Broncos +9.5, 0.5 point @ 20/21.

The Denver Broncos have won four of their last five and are 3-1 away from home. They have one of the best defences in the league, conceding the third fewest points per game on average. Sean Payton and his coaching staff have whipped them up into decent shape defensively and they are moving the ball reasonably well on offence. Bo Nix has been safe, throwing for 8 TDs on the year, along with 5 INTs. The Ravens’ D has also been good, but they are liable to be picked off through the air. I don’t think Denver will take massive advantage of the weak Baltimore secondary, but I do think that their defence will keep them in this one and 9.5 points is a huge spread to cover, even by Baltimore.