NAP RECORD: 0-2.

2024 OVERALL RECORD: 4-3.

2024 TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: -0.34 point.

Tyler Badie over 15.5 yards rushing: 0.5 point @ 5/6 (NAP)

Who? The Broncos third stringer is their leading rusher this season and just got signed to a full contract. The Jets D has been good, but this is absurdly low for someone who is having a lot more success than Javonte Williams. He averaged over 7 yards a carry against the Bucs…

Alvin Kamara over 95.5 total yards: 0.5 point @ 20/23

Kamara is resurgent this season and will look to put up a big game against the Saints’ divisional rival, Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons have been one of the worst run stopping teams so far this year, but have been fairly ok against the pass. I think Kamara will have a lot of success on the ground and when Carr can’t get it down the field, he’ll dump it off to his main man, who will notch up a few yards receiving too.

Chiefs @ Chargers: Chargers +7.5, 0.5 point @ evens

The Chiefs haven’t beaten the Chargers by 8 points or more, when the Chargers are at home, since 2018. The points total on this one is 41.5, which is pretty low for such a big spread. The Chargers are going to ground and pound and try to hold onto the ball for as long as possible, to keep Mahomes off the field. I do think the Chiefs will win this one, but giving a home team such a big spread can get dicey. The big underdogs are doing well this year, and I like Harbaugh to get Dobbins moving on the ground, with Herbert managing the clock effectively from the pocket.