NAP RECORD: 2-3.

2024 OVERALL RECORD: 10-9.

2024 TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: +0.54 point.

Bills @ Colts: Bills -3.5, 1 point @ 20/23. (NAP).
James Cook anytime, 1 point @ evens.
James Cook over 64.5 yards rushing, 1 point @ 20/23.
The Bills are one of the best teams in football right now and the Colts are a team with Joe Flacco as their starting quarterback. This spread should be a billion. I don’t care if the Colts are at home or that Keon Coleman is out. The Bills have won their last four, including beating Miami last week, thumping the Seahawks and Titans the two weeks previous. They are tied fourth in points per game and eight in points allowed per game. The Colts are bottom half in points per game and 13th in points allowed per game and haven’t scored my than 20 in any of their last four games. If they follow that trend, they will have to keep Buffalo under 24 points, which I can’t see them doing. Josh Allen is just too good.
FYI: James Cook props are based on the Colts being the second worst run defence in terms of rushing yards allowed per game.

Vikings @ Jaguars: Vikings -6.5, 0.5 point @ 5/6.
Justin Jefferson over 91.5 yards, 0.5 point @ 20/23.
The 6-2 Vikings head to the 2-7 Jags to see if they can notch another decent win on their belt. The Vikings will be feeling pretty good about themselves as they will likely be facing an offence without Trevor Lawrence, even if he hasn’t been great this year, with the mighty Mac Jones filling in for him if he doesn’t get off the injury report. The Vikings defence is elite and with their high blitz rate, will likely put a rusty Mac Jones under pressure all night. While the Vikings offence is pretty decent, I think it will be their defence that will do the damage and keep them above the 6.5 points. One small but interesting point of note is Minnesota will be without their long snapper and kicker. Not ideal, but hopefully not a massive change variable.
FYI: The Jags are the second worst passing defence in the league. I would normally hammer this JJ pick, but it seems like there will be a small bit of rain in Duval at kick-off, so might make it a little bit more difficult for Darnold to get the pigskin in his hands.

49ers @ Buccaneers: Cade Otton over 5.5 receptions, 1 point @ 4/6.
I had this lovely paragraph typed out on why the Bucs will stay in this one and keep it within the 6.5 point spread and then realised Mike Evans is also out. CMC being back didn’t bother me too much, but no Evans or Godwin is a bit of a worry. So, enjoy Cade Otton getting at least six receptions, which he has done in 6 of his last 7 games.

Other:
Patriots @ Bears: Bears -6.5, 0.25 point @ 20/21.
DeAndre Swift over 73.5 yards, 0.5 point @ 5/6.
Bears are 4-0 at home but have their lost their last two. Drake Maye is also looking kind of spicy for the Pats, so just a small wager here.