WEEK 7 RECORD: 2-5.

WEEK 7 PROFIT/LOSS: -0.84 point.

NAP RECORD: 2-4.

2023 OVERALL RECORD: 27-42.

2023 TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: -15.45 points.

2022 TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: +21.32 points.

JAGUARS @ STEELERS:

Important points to note (Jaguars): Jaguars -1.5, 1.5 points @ 10/11. (NAP)

• 5-2 and 3-0 away from home.
• On a four-game win streak, which includes wins over Saints, Colts, Bills and Falcons.
• 14^th in total offensive yards, 14^th in passing, 13^th in rushing and 9^th in points scored.
• 25^th in total yards allowed, 31^st in passing, 4^th in rushing and 16^th in points allowed.
• 5^th in turnovers with a +6 differential. Lead the league in takeaways with 16.
• Missing Zay Jones and Gregory Junior.
• Have won five of their last six on the road against the Steelers.

Important points to note (Steelers):

• 4-2 and 2-1 at home.
• Have won four of their last five.
• In terms of offensive and defensive yards, near the bottom of most categories, except for points allowed, where they sit at 18^th.
• 3^rd in turnovers with +6.
• Missing Cam Hayward.

Final comment:

The Steelers have been winning games by the skin of their teeth. Their stats are hopeless, except for their turnovers, which has been leading to them getting over the finishing line. Their luck runs of against the Jags, as they get beaten comfortably at home.

EAGLES @ COMMANDERS: Commanders +8.5 and over 43.5, 1 point @ 2.4/1.

Important points to note (Eagles):

• 6-1 and 3-1 away from home.
• Their one loss was against the Jets. 20-14.
• Beat the Commanders 34-31 in OT at home in week 4.
• Won each of their last seven games against NFC opponents.
• Top three overall offence, 8^th in passing, 4^th in rushing and points scored.
• 6^th in total yards allowed, 18^th in passing, 1^st in rushing and 15^th in points allowed.
• 22^nd in turnovers with a -2 differential.
• Won four of the last five games against the Commanders.
• Missing CB, Bradley Roby.
• Hurts nursing a knee injury.

Important points to note (Commanders):

• 3-4 and 1-2 at home.
• Commanders have lost four of their last five games, including a 37-3 hammering to the Bills and a 40-20 loss to the Bears.
• Bottom half of all offensive categories.
• Near the bottom of all defensive categories.
• 16^th in turnovers with -1.
• Sam Howell is the most sacked QB in the league.

Final comment:

Looking at every statistic, you would have to say that this is going to be a blowout by the Eagles, en-route to 7-1. For that exact reason, I’m going to ride with the Commanders at home with the over. This type of bet has worked quite well this year, so going to see how it travels here. To be fair, Jalen’s injury would worry me as an Eagles bettor and the Commanders can put it up to the Eagles every now and again.

BROWNS @ SEAHAWKS: Over 37.5 points, 1 point @ 10/11.

Important points to note (Browns):

• 4-2 and 1-1 away from home.
• 39-38 win against the Colts last week.
• Both away games they have played have surpassed 48 points or more.
• Middle of the pack in total offensive yards, 31^st in passing, 2^nd in rushing and 15^th in points scored.
• 1^st in total yards allowed and passing, 7^th in rushing and 10^th in points allowed.
• 29^th in turnovers.
• DeShaun Watson and Jerome Ford are out.

Important points to note (Seahawks):

• 4-2 and 2-1 at home.
• Solid 20-10 win at home last week against the Cardinals.
• Middle of the pack or better in most offensive categories.
• Middle of the pack for total yards allowed and passing, 6^th in rushing and 12^th in points scored.
• Missing Phil Haynes and Uchenna Nwosu.

Final comment:

The Browns are not the same defence at home and the Seahawks have been erratic. I think this one goes like the Browns, Colts last week.

RAVENS @ CARDINALS: Ravens -8.5, 1 point @ 10/11.

Important points to note (Ravens):

• 5-2 and 3-1 away from home.
• Destroyed the Lions, 38-6, last week at home. They did lose their last away game (17-10), which was against the Steelers.
• 9^th in total offensive yards, 16^th in passing, 3^rd in rushing and 10^th in points scored.
• 2^nd in total yards allowed and passing, 9^th in rushing and 1^st in points allowed.
• 17^th in turnovers with -1.
• Ravens lead the NFL in sacks with 29.
• Rushed for at least 100 yards in 23 straight games.
• Safety, Marcus Williams is out.
• Ravens have only allowed seven TDs all season, which is good enough for 1^st place in that category.

Important points to note (Cardinals):

• 1-6 and 1-2 at home.
• On a fairly slippery slope, losing their last four. Closest loss margin was 10, last week against the Seahawks.
• 19^th in total offensive yards, 28^th in passing, 6^th in rushing and 24^th in points scored.
• 28^th in total yards allowed, 23^rd in passing, 25^th in rushing and 26^th in points scored.
• 11^th in turnovers with +3.

Final comment:

The Cardinals are a very competent rushing team, but unfortunately meet against Baltimore’s defensive strength. The Ravens made me look like a fool last week when they blew out the Lions, so I have to ride with them in this one. The match up looks great and it would be the NAP of the week if they were at home. The Cardinals are in a major slide and should get picked apart by Lamar and Co.

Additional Picks:

CHIEFS @ BRONCOS: Chiefs -6.5, 0.5 @ 5/6.

The Chiefs are on a 16 games winning streak over the Broncos, Mahomes is 12-0 against the Broncos in his career and Mahomes is 25-0 against teams that are multiple games under 0.500. If the Broncos win this game, I truly am a jinx.

BEARS @ CHARGERS: Over 46.5, 0.25 point @ 10/11.

I think there is a bit of value in this. The Chargers have an atrocious passing defence, but a strong offence.

Player Prop, 1 point @ 22.4/1.