WEEK 7 TNF RECORD: 0-1.

WEEK 7 TNF PROFIT/LOSS: -1 point.

NAP RECORD: 2-3.

2023 OVERALL RECORD: 25-37.

2023 TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: -14.61 points.

2022 TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: +21.32 points.

BILLS @ PATRIOTS: Bills -6.5, 1 point @ 5/6 (NAP).

Important points to note (Bills):

• 4-2 and 1-1 away from home.
• Two weird games for their last two outings. 14-9 win against the Giants and a 25-20 loss to the Jags in London. Before that, they beat the Dolphins by 28, the Commanders by 34 and the Raiders by 28.
• Have won four straight against the Patriots, by margins of 12, 14, 30 and 12.
• Near the top of most offensive categories, including a ranking of third of points scored per game with 28.8.
• Top ten in most defensive categories, except for rushing where they sit at 25^th. Third in points allowed.

Important points to note (Patriots):

• 1-5 and 0-3 at home.
• Have scored 17, 0 and 3 in their last three games. The 17 came against a poor Raiders defence.
• As you can imagine, their offence doesn’t rank very high. Near the bottom of most categories, including a second last ranking in points scored.
• Decent in the yards allowed categories, hovering around the top ten, but 25^th in points allowed.
• Usually an outstanding team in terms of turnovers, they now sit dead last.

Final comment:

The Patriots are in big big trouble. They are weak in defence and turnovers, where they are usually strong. They also have nothing going forward, which is not good when facing a stingy Buffalo defence. The Bills are so back and I’m willing to let the loss to the Jags slide, as the Jags were a much fresher team in London, having been there for almost two weeks prior to the game.

BROWNS @ COLTS: Colts +3.5 and Over 39.5, 1 point @ 2.25/1.

Important points to note (Browns):

• 3-2 and 0-1 away from home.
• Huge 19-17 win last week against the 49ers. San Fran held to 125 yards passing and 108 rushing. They only scored one TD but registered four field goals.
• 20^th in total offensive yards, 30^th in passing, 4^th in rushing and 21^st in points scored.
• 1^st in total yards allowed, 1^st in passing, 3^rd in rushing and 5^th in points allowed.
• 31^st in turnovers with -8. Low at intercepting opponents and well able to throw them themselves.
• They have only scored more than 22 twice in five games. Both were at home. Their one away game was a 28-3 loss against the Ravens.

Important points to note (Colts):

• 3-3 and 1-2 at home.
• Losses to Jaguars and Rams, but wins against Tennessee, Ravens and Texans. Have scored at least 20 points in all games, with a high of 31.
• 10^th in total offensive yards and passing, 14^th in rushing and 11^th in scoring.
• 26^th in total yards allowed, 23^rd in passing, 19^th in rushing and 24^th in points allowed.
• Middle of the pack on turnovers with zero net.
• Anthony Richardson is out for the season, so Minshew steps up. Solid back up option, besides his three-pick performance against the Jags.
• Two of their games have gone to overtime. A 29-23 loss to the Rams and a 22-19 win against the Ravens.

Final comment:

The Browns shocked the NFL last week when the took down one of the best teams out there. Their defence is number one and it held a juggernaut to under 250 total yards. The Colts have been really good, bar their performance against the Jags. They were down 31-6 after the 3^rd quarter of that game but managed to get something going in the fourth. This will be close, really close, so taking the 3.5 of the Colts and throwing it in with the over 39.5. The stats suggest that the Colts can score and concede some too.

LIONS @ RAVENS: Lions ML, 1 point @ 23/20.

Important points to note (Lions):

• 5-1 and 3-0 away from home.
• Since losing to Seattle in week two, the Lions have beaten the Falcons by 14, Packers by 14, Panthers by 18 and Bucs by 14. They are doing what good teams tend to do. Beat bad teams, easily.
• 3^rd in total offensive yards, 4^th in passing yards, 8^th in rushing yards and 4^th in points scored.
• 7^th in total yards allowed, 18^th in passing, 1^st in rushing and 9^th in points allowed.
• 13^th in the turnover battle with +2.
• Missing David Montgomery, Jonah Jackson, Josh Pascal and CJ Gardner-Johnson.
• Detroit have won 13 of their last 16 games.
• Detroit fifth best at protecting their quarterback, only allowing 10 sacks all season.

Important points to note (Ravens):

• 4-2 and 1-1 at home.
• Their one loss at home came against the Colts. They hammered the Browns and Texans, but have close(ish) wins against the Titans, Steelers and Bengals.
• 11^th in total offensive yards, 24^th in passing, 5^th in rushing and 16^th in points scored.
• 2^nd in total yards allowed and passing, 9^th in rushing and 4^th in points allowed.
• 20^th in turnovers with a -1 differential.
• Both teams have dominated the first quarter, with the Ravens outscoring opponents 41-6 and Detroit outscoring opposition 48-10.
• Ravens have only conceded six touchdowns all year.
• Ravens have only scored one touchdown in their last two. Kicked six field goals against Tennessee, in London.

Final comment:

I’m going to do it. I’m going to take the Lions on the money-line at 23/20. I’m a bit of a non-believer in the Ravens. They may be stopping teams from scoring TDs, but they have played some struggling offences. They are also struggling to get in the end zone themselves. The Lions are legit and take this one, away from home, to cement themselves as an NFC powerhouse.

CARDINALS @ SEAHAWKS: Seahawks -8.5, 1 point @ 10/11.

Important points to note (Cardinals):

• 1-5 and 0-3 away from home.
• Last three losses have margins of 15 (Rams), 14 (Bengals) and 19 (49ers).
• Cardinals have lost their last three matchups with the Seahawks. 38-30 at home, 19-9 away and 31-21 at home.
• Cardinals are middle of the pack in total offensive yards, 25^th in passing and sixth in rushing. 20^th in points scored.
• 28^th in total yards allowed, 22^nd in passing, 24^th in rushing and 27^th in points allowed.
• A lot of their strong running game is coming from James Conner, who is now on injury reserve. They are also without Budda Baker, Elijah Wilkinson and Antonio Hamilton Snr.
• Conceded 145 yards to Cooper Kupp in week six.
• Allowed most redzone possessions in the league, so far this season.

Important points to note (Seahawks):

• 3-2 and 1-1 at home.
• Beat Carolina at home but lost to the Rams.
• 14^th in total offensive yards, 11^th in passing, 20^th in rushing and 8^th in points scored.
• 14^th in total yards allowed, 28^th in passing, 4^th in rushing and 18^th points allowed.
• Since 2019, Seahawks are 13-14 at home. But like I said, they haven’t loss to the Cardinals in their last three and to them at home since 2021.
• Jamal Adams returns from injury.

Final comment:

This is a good matchup for the Seahawks. They have dominated in recent games, even with Kyler Murray playing and now ‘only’ have to face Josh Dobbs. Seattle have had some passing D woes, but get Jamal Adams back, which will allow rookie sensation Devon Witherspoon to slip back from safety to corner and sure up their defence through the air. The Seattle run defence, which is their strong point, should slow down the Cardinals run offence with James Conner now out of the lineup. The spread is big, but Seattle have shown they can cover it over the last three matchups, at least.

Some quick comments on these:

CHARGERS @ CHIEFS: Chargers +5.5, 0.5 point @ 10/11.

Since the start of the 2021 season, the Chargers have won two out of the last three games at Arrowhead (38-21 and 30-24). Their one loss, which came last season, was a nail biting 27-24 defeat. These two always produce a cracking game, with LA well able to keep up with Kansas. Especially in their own building. Even with the Chargers not playing at their best this season, I think +5.5 is generous.

DOLPHINS @ EAGLES: Over 51.5, 0.5 point @ 10/11.

Two hot offences against two middling defences. The Dolphins number one offence is going to expose the Eagles defensive passing weakness, which is currently ranked 20^th. The Eagles strong offence, which is ranked number two in total yards, should go well against an overall defence that is middle of the pack. Hoping for a great game here, with loads of points.

PLAYER PROP, 1 POINT @ 36.37/1.