WEEK 5 TNF RECORD: 0-1.
WEEK 5 TNF PROFIT/LOSS: -1 point.
NAP RECORD: 1-2.
2023 OVERALL RECORD: 21-27.
2023 TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: -8.35 points.
2022 TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: +21.32 points.
Eagles @ Rams: Rams +4.5, 1.5 points @ 10/11. (NAP).
I like this Rams in this one, which I can’t believe I’m saying. The Eagles are 4-0, but don’t seem to be a 4-0 team. They have beaten the Commanders, Bucs, Vikings and Patriots. The Commanders just got smashed by the Bears and Bills, , and the Vikings and Patriots are 1-3. The Bucs are going ok to be fair. The Eagles are still a top-class team, ranking fifth in terms of total offensive yards and total points, but their defence has been a bit of a liability so far this year. Their passing defence is currently ranked 27th and with the Rams ranking second in passing offence, before the addition of Kupp, who plays this week, I think they’ll be sound at home against a Philly team who notches their first loss.
Jaguars @ Bills (London Game): Bills -5.5, 0.5 point @ 10/11.
Little hesitant to call anything on this game, as it’s in London, and that usually means some unusual score lines. The Bills are red hot at the moment and while the Jaguars are 2-2, with a solid win against the Falcons in London the week previous, they shouldn’t be able to hang with Buffalo and their number two ranked scoring offence. It’s the London element that is throwing me, along with Jacksonville being based (and properly rested) in London for two whole weeks. But I like this line and think the Bills will win it. The Jaguars were gashed through the air by the Texans in week 3 and Josh Allen is coming off a monster game in week four, logging four passing TDs and 320 yards passing, one rushing TD and no picks. Their defence is also number two in points allowed, holding Miami to 20 points in week four. Nothing major, betting wise, on this one, like as I said, London games can be funny sometimes.
Texans @ Falcons: Over 40.5, 1 point @ 5/6.
The Texans are on a two-game winning streak, while the Falcons are on a two-game losing streak. Both teams are 2-2 but seem to be heading in different directions. The Falcons put up 13 total points over their last two games but faced two of the best run defences in the league, in the Lions and the Jags. They’ll have much more success against a middle of the pack run D and the Texans continue their upward offensive trajectory under rookie QB, CJ Stroud.
Panthers @ Lions: Lions -9.5, 1 point @ 10/11.
The two teams last met on Dec 24th last year, with the Panthers beating the Lions 37-23, in Carolina. Carolina put up a franchise record of 520 offensive yards, including 320 on the ground. Between the two teams, the Panthers have won four of the last five and two straight. I think this year will be different, however. The Panthers defence isn’t the same, currently sitting middle of pack in terms of total yards allowed, 27th in rushing yards allowed and 26th in total points allowed. They have been good against the pass, currently sitting in sixth place. Although they are decent in stopping the pass, in some cases, facing the Lions, when you can’t stop the run, and concede a lot of points, is not the best news. The Lions are also a much better team, in terms of defence, in 2023. They are fourth in total yards allowed and 13th in total points allowed. Panthers QB, Bryce Young has two TDs, two INTs and two fumbles. He’s also averaging a measly 168 yards passing per game. Lions take this 28-10.
Giants @ Dolphins: Dolphins -12.5, 1-point @ 10/11
The number one ranked offence in terms of total yards faces off against the 31st ranked offence. I don’t need to tell you who’s who. The Dolphins landed back to earth last week, when the Bills dropped 48 on their head, on way to a 28-point loss. Good news for Miami is that they have the perfect bounce back game this week, against a New York team that is in all sorts of trouble. Daniel Jones was sacked 11 times in his week four game against the Seahawks in their 24-3. The Giants are also the 25th ranked rushing defence, which Miami will look to expose with their speedsters Mostert and Achane. When you think Miami offence, you think passing, but they also can do it on the ground. In terms of passing defence, the Giants are middle of the pack, and with Dolphins’ star OT, Terron Armstead out for this game, should have some success in slowing down Tua. The problem is that Miami are totally over 100 more yards per game that any other team on offence, on average. If you slow them down somewhat, they are still going to burn you one way or another. This is a massive spread, but Miami take it.
Player Prop, 1 point:
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