WEEK 3 TNF RECORD: 2-0.

WEEK 3 TNF PROFIT/LOSS: +1.74 points.

NAP RECORD: 1-1.

2023 OVERALL RECORD: 12-12.

2023 TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: -1.58 points.

2022 TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: +21.32 points.

NFL SUNDAY WEEK 3:

COWBOYS @ ARIZONA: Cowboys -12.5, 1 point @ 10/11. (NAP).

The Cowboys beat the Jets by twenty points in week two and the Giants by forty in week one. They put up another big number here and flattened a weak Arizona team.

COLTS @ BALTIMORE: Colts +8, 0.5 point @ 10/11.

Finding this one a little tricky to call, so leaning with the large spread in favour of the Colts. I do think the Ravens will win this one, but +8 is big for a team with a really solid defence and a solid enough offence. The Ravens are also pretty thin in some key spots, with offensive linemen, Tyler Linderbaum and Ronnie Stanley, both missing out, as well as Marcus Williams and Marlon Humphrey in the secondary. The Colts have injury concerns of their own, as Anthony Richardson is out. Gardner Minshew steps in, and I for one think they’ll be just fine. Minshew went 19/23 with 171 yards and one TD, when coming in to replace Richardson last week. Match that up with Baltimore’s weakened secondary and you have a sound outlook for Indy going forward. The Ravens do stuff the run, but like I said, Indy should be able to move it through the air. Both have good defensive lines, so I think this could end up as a low scoring affair, with the Colts keeping it close enough.

TITANS @ BROWNS: Titans +3.5, 1 point @ 10/11.

The Titans are looking like a bit of value here. They are 7-1-1 against the handicap for their last nine games away from home. They are tough, well coached and getting after the QB. They have seven sacks through their first two games, which doesn’t look good for Deshaun Watson, who now has no Nick Chubb to lean on, as well as an iffy offensive line. The Browns were putting up yards, but the majority was coming from Chubb. Without him, I’m sure they’ll move it somewhat, but not to the same extent. The Titans might also struggle to move the ball on the ground, as the Browns have the fourth ranked rush defence. This should be a close one, so I’m siding with the better coached and healthier team. Titans up.

BRONCOS @ DOLPHINS: Over 46.5, 1 point @ 5/6.

The Dolphins’ offence is insane, and Denver has been putting up some sneaky points as well. They may have lost last week’s game to the Commanders, but they put up 33 points in the process. Wilson has five TDs for the year and only one INT. The Dolphins are also allowing the fifth most rushing yards per game, on average, so a big game is in store for Javonte Williams. Miami will be without Waddle, but they still move it well through the air and on the ground.

PATRIOTS @ JETS: Patriots -2.5, 1 point @ 10/11.

The Patriots have won their last 14 games against the New York Jets. They have also covered at least 2.5 points in each of those games. Prior to the season starting, it looked like that streak may come to an end, but with Rodgers now out, it looks like it will keep rolling on. Zach Wilson may have beaten the Bills, when he came on, but his performance against the Cowboys was not one for the memory books. Just 170 yards passing, one TD and three INTs, definitely contributed to his team’s 30-10 loss. He’s just not that guy and Belichick is sure to cook him up in Sunday’s game. The Patriots may be 0-2, but they’ve played Miami and Philly and only lost by a combined twelve points. They get back on track here with a fine defensive performance away from home.

BILLS @ COMMANDERS: Bills -5.5, 0.5 point @ 10/11.

The Bills were back with a bang last week against the Raiders. Their dominant 38-10 win over Las Vegas, was big for their own moral and Josh Allen’s. Allen bounced back from a one TD and three picks performance in week one, with an incredible 31/37, 274 yards and three TD stat line. He needed that going into an away game, against a defence that is on the rise in terms of QB. Washington’s Montez Sweat and Chase Young are looking good, logging three sacks between them last week. The reason I’m siding with the Bills this week, besides the big performance last week, is Washington were 24-12 down in the third quarter last week and somehow got back into it. The same doesn’t happen here and the Bills make it to 2-1.

FALCONS @ LIONS: Falcons +3.5, 0.25 point @ 10/11.

The spread in this game may be disrespecting the Falcons, slightly. The Falcons are 2-0, with a tight win over the Packers and a solid 14-point win over the Panthers in week one. It looks like Arthur Smith’s plan is finally coming together. The only place they are lacking in is QB, as Desmond Ridder has been sloppy in his first two games. One interception last week, doesn’t tell the whole story. Lucky for him, he hasn’t had to be great, as the Falcons run game, with Bijan and Allgeier has been dominant, with Robinson second in the league in rushing yards. Ridder has an easier outlook this week against a pass D that is 26^th in the league for passing yards allowed. Detroit will also be without star safety, CJ Gardner Johson, who is out for the session with a pectoral injury. The Lions will also be without two starting offensive linemen, which means Goff will not have as clean a pocket. Which he needs… Falcons keep this one very close and may even get a nice away win.

BEARS @ CHIEFS: N/A.

Spread is large for this one and Justin Fields could do anything.

SAINTS @ PACKERS: Saints +4.5 and under 43.5 points, 0.5 point @ 1.65/1.

Bit of an interesting bet here, but I like the little bit of added cushion for the Saints, who have won three of their last four against the Packers. The Saints have also kept the teams they have played in each of their last ten games under 20 points scored. Their defence is stout and is currently ranked sixth in terms of points allowed in 2023. The Packers have been rolling on offence, currently ranking second in terms of points scored, but this is Love’s first game at home, where he has only thrown 11 total passes in his career. Green Bay also have their usually injury woes to the offensive line, which doesn’t help Love at all. I think both offences struggle in this one, but Olave and Carr connect to get a low scoring away W.

TEXANS @ JAGUARS: Jaguars -6.5 and over 44.5, 0.5 point @ 2.4/1.

Another one of these bets, but I like it a lot. The Jaguars are going to put up some points, with Houston’s defence in disarray with injuries. Denzel Perryman, Jalen Pitre, Tavierre Thomas and Derek Stingley are all out. But I also think the Texans might put up some numbers, through the air at least. The Jaguars have had a decent rush defence so far, which means Houston and CJ Stroud will lean on the passing game, where he has been putting on a decent showing. The pass heavy attacks from both teams will also extend the game clock, allowing more time for points. I still think the stats lean towards a decent win for the Jaguars, but I also think points will be scored.

CHARGERS @ VIKINGS: Over 53.5, 1 point @ 10/11.

Both teams are in the bottom seven of the points allowed category. Both teams also have explosive offences, that mainly flow through their QB and passing game. The Chargers’ D has sucked in their first two games, so I am confident that Kirk Cousins will move the ball well. The Chargers’ passing defence is dead last in terms of yards allowed and their rushing D is middle of the pack, which means the route forward is there for Kirk to have a big game. Justin Herbert should also have a big game, as he has lit up Miami and Tennessee, in weeks one and two, respectively. The Chargers should also go well on the ground, as the Vikings are conceding 166 rushing yards per game, on average, which is bad enough for fourth worst in the league. This should be a cracker and break the 60-point mark.

PANTHERS @ SEAHAWKS: N/A.

Haven’t got a Seahawks game right yet, so staying away. Bryce Young is out for Carolina and Seattle have some injury worries of their own.

STEELERS @ RAIDERS: N/A.

Two teams a little all over the place. No thanks.

Player Prop: 1 point.

LFG.