THANKSGIVING RECORD: 3-4.
THANKSGIVING PROFIT/LOSS: +1.16 points.
NAP RECORD: 3-6.
2023 OVERALL RECORD: 35-60.
2023 TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: -20.46 points.
2022 TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: +21.32 points.
STEELERS @ BENGALS
Jaylen Warren Props:
- Over 47.5 yards rushing, 1.5 points @ 5/6
- Anytime scorer, 1 point @ 7/4.
- Bet builder of both selections, 0.5 point @ 5/2.
Comments:
- Bengals are 31st in rushing yards allowed. Have allowed 157 to the Ravens, 188 to the Texans, 68 to Buffalo and 113 to the Niners over the last four games.
- Warren has firmly taken over as the number one rusher on the Steelers. He is clearly a far more explosive runner.
- His carries and yards have been increasing over the last number of weeks:
- Week 9 – 11 carries for 88 yards.
- Week 10 – 15 carries for 101 yards and a TD.
- Week 11 – 9 carries for 129 yards and a TD.
- He has scored in three of his last five games.
- The Bengals will be without Joe Burrow, so I don’t see them hanging onto the ball for too long. This could be a ground and pound, keep hold of possession through the rushing attack, type of game for the Steelers.
- Matt Canada has been fired, so hopefully that will add extra juice to the Steelers attack.
JAGUARS @ TEXANS
CJ Stoud Prop:
- Over 273.5 yards passing, 1 point @ 10/11.
Comments:
- Has thrown at least 280 yards in six of his ten games.
- Threw for 280 yards against the Jags in week three. Had his second lowest attempts of the year in that game, which was out of sight due to a strong Texans defensive performance and 85-yard kick-off return TD by fullback, Andrew Beck. I think the Jags will be more in this one, meaning Stroud will need to throw more.
- Jags are one of the best run stopping teams in the league, which will also lead to Stroud throwing more.
- Has at least 336 yards passing in his last three games.
- Jags are 29th in terms of passing yards allowed per game.
BILLS @ EAGLES
Josh Allen Prop:
- Over 1.5 TDs thrown, 1 point @ 8/11.
Comments:
- Has at least 2 TDs in 7 of 11 games.
- Threw 3 TDs against the Jets in week 11.
- The Eagles have conceded at least two passing TDs in each of their last three games, including four by Sam Howell in week 9.
- One of the worst passing defences in the league.
- Joe Brady’s first game as the OC was a success and he continues his hot start here.
Khalil Shakir Prop:
- Over 29.5 yards receiving, 1.5 points @ 5/6.
Comments:
- Has at least three receptions in four of his last five. His average yards per reception is 16.5.
- Has at least 35 yards receiving in four of his last five. (115, 24, 57, 92 and 35).
- Had 115 yards receiving against the Jets in week 11.
- As mentioned, playing against a poor passing defence.
RAVENS @ CHARGERS
Odell Beckham Prop – over 39.5 yards receiving, 1.5 points @ 20/23 (NAP)
- LA have the worst passing defence in the league, conceding 291.6 yards per game, on average.
- Lamar has the highest completion % in the league.
- Mark Andrews is out, which means an increased role for Beckham.
- Has 116, 40, 56 yards receiving in his last three games.
- Has at least seven target in three of his last five, which at least four receptions on that target share.
ACCA – 1 point @ 5.41/1
- Jaylen Warren Over
- Shakir Over
- Beckham Over
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