WEEK 9 RECORD: 1-6.

WEEK 9 PROFIT/LOSS: -4.06 points.

NAP RECORD: 3-5.

2023 OVERALL RECORD: 31-53.

2023 TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: -18.58 points.

2022 TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: +21.32 points.

Browns @ Ravens: Ravens -6.5, 1 point @ 10/11. (NAP)

These two teams met in Cleveland in week four, with the Ravens hammering the Browns 28-3. DeShaun Watson returns for this one, but I don’t think it will be enough. Firstly, the Ravens defence leads the league in sacks and with Browns OT, Jedrick Wills out for this one, it could get hairy for Watson. Secondly, the Browns defence is not the same away from, clearly highlighted by their 24-20 loss to the Seahawks in week eight and their conceding of 38 points to the Gardner Minshew led Colts in week seven. Finally, the Ravens just demolished the Seahawks 37-3 in week nine, to firmly stick themselves into the AFC number one seed race. Ravens continue their hot streak with 24-17 win at home.

49ers @ Jaguars: Jags +3.5, 1 point @ 10/11.

I like the Jaguars to cover in this one. They are getting 3.5, which seems a little rich given they are on a five-game heater and the 49ers are on a three-game slide. The Jags are well in the race for the first seed in the AFC, currently sitting at 6-2. The Niners looked to be indestructible in their first five games, but have since lost to the Browns, Vikings and Bengals. Purdy has been poor, throwing five picks in his last five and CMC might face stiffer opposition in this one, with the Jags ranking near the top of the rushing defence stats. Trevor Lawrence has shown he can get it done no matter where he is, so I like him to take advantage of a passing defence is middle of the pack. Chase Young has been added to the 49ers roster, but I don’t think it’ll be enough to cover the 3.5 spread. Jags roll on.

Texans @ Bengals: Under 47.5, 1 point @ 10/11.

My Texans are absolutely steaming ahead, already surpassing their win total for last year. The Bengals are on a serious comeback after a slow start, beating the Bills and Niners over the last two weeks, adding to a win streak that now sits at four. The reasons for the under are that Houston is 1-3 away from home and only scored a combined 32 points over their last two away games. The Bengals will be without Tee Higgins and possibly Ja’Marr Chase. The Texans will be without their usual kicker, Fairbairn. The points total seems high on this one, so the under seems like a reasonable deduction, given the omissions and Bengals sneaky redzone D.

Saints @ Vikings: Under 40.5, 0.5 point @ 10/11.

Joshua Dobbs put up one of the performance of the year last week, as he called game on the Atlanta Falcons, just days after signing with the Minnesota Vikings. Dobbs didn’t even know his own teammates’ names, nor did he know the play calls. Head coach, Kevin O’Connell, had to visually describe the plays to him and he still put up 158 yards and two passing TDs, along with 66 yards rushing and one TD on the ground. Insane. He will no doubt be full of confidence after that performance, but the Saints defence is probably ahead of where the Falcons are at. The Saints are also third in turnovers, with a +8 differential, and 7^th in total yards allowed. The Vikings defence has been much better under Brian Flores, hovering around the top ten and I think this could be a low scoring affair, with both offences struggling to make a huge impression.

Lions @ Chargers: Over 48.5 points, 0.5 point @ 10/11.

Two good offences going at it.