WEEK 1 TNF RECORD: 1-1.

WEEK 1 TNF PROFIT/LOSS: -0.09.

2023 OVERALL RECORD: 1-1.

2023 TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: -0.09.

2022 TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: +21.32 points.

As it’s week one, proceed with caution. I feel like I really only start to know teams after about week 3/4, so I’ll be keeping the bets small until then. Happy punting and enjoy one of the best days of the year. SEVEN HOURS…

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks: Seahawks -4.5, 1 point @ 10/11 (NAP)

Here we go, folks—the NAP of the week. A -4.5-point spread for a team with serious aspirations of winning their division and going far in the competition versus a team expected to have one of the worst records in football in 2023. The Seahawks are electrifying on offense, featuring Geno Smith (the most accurate QB in football last year), Dk, Lockett, Kenneth Walker III, and highly touted rookies WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba and RB Zach Charbonnet. NFL analysts and fantasy enthusiasts couldn’t be more bullish on these two rookies, bolstering an already formidable offense. However, the same cannot be said for the Rams, who will be without Cooper Kupp for the next four weeks. The Rams will try to establish a strong running game and exploit a run defence that struggled in 2022, but it’s challenging to envision that being sufficient. While the Rams have the advantage of playing at home and having McVay and Donald, they parted ways with four starting defensive players over the summer, one of whom was Jalen Ramsey. Farewell, LA.

San Francisco 49ers @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Steelers +2.5, 0.5 point @ 10/11

This matchup is undeniably intriguing. Two teams with lofty aspirations and robust rosters. First, let’s look at the quarterbacks. We have two second-year players hoping to make significant strides. Pickett improved as the season progressed last year, tallying three fourth-quarter comebacks and four game-winning drives. He also benefits from an upgraded offensive line and a year of chemistry with George Pickens. Purdy, also known as “Mr. Irrelevant” (drafted last), had an exceptional season, guiding the 49ers to the NFC championship game. Unfortunately, a nasty elbow injury in that game required surgery, and he has been rehabbing ever since. Now, focusing on the coaches, we have two of the best in the game with Shanahan and Tomlin. An offensive mastermind versus a defensive stalwart suggests a closely contested affair. On the defensive side for the 49ers, Nick Bosa recently signed the highest-ever contract for a defensive player and aims to live up to that investment. While the 49ers boast one of the best defences in the league, the Steelers are on the rise on both sides of the ball. This promises to be a great game, but I’m siding with the home team and the points.

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons: Falcons -3.5, 0.5 point @ 10/11

Divisional games can be unpredictable, but I favour the home favourite in this matchup. They say home-field advantage is worth three points, and the bookies seem to value these teams as equals, which I believe is inaccurate. While the Panthers have the stronger defence, their offense appears weak, even with the additions of #1 pick Bryce Young and running back Miles Sanders. On the other hand, Atlanta’s offense is looking potent, especially with the addition of Bijan Robinson at RB. With Pitts, London, Bijan, and others at home, I lean toward Atlanta in this one.

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens: Ravens -10, 0.5 point @ 10/11

If this game were later in the year, the Texans might pose a more significant challenge. Unfortunately for Houston, they are dealing with several injuries from the preseason, making it a challenging debut for rookie QB CJ Stroud. The Ravens are missing CB Marlon Humphrey, and their secondary is shaky, but I believe the new-look Ravens offense will do enough to cover the spread. The concern with taking the Ravens, if any, is that it might take a couple of games for their new offensive coordinator and weapons to click. Odell, rookie Zay Flowers, and a recovering JK Dobbins are exciting prospects, but it may take some time for them to gel. I think this game will end with a scoreline of around 24-10. The Texans will have a strong defence this year, but not in this game due to the injuries.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns: Browns +2, 0.5 point @ 10/11

This might appear to be an unusual pick, but Browns’ Head Coach Kevin Stefanski holds a 5-1 record against the Bengals. The Browns have been Joe Burrow’s kryptonite, and with his nagging calf injury from the offseason, his streak of struggles could continue. The Bengals also lost key defenders Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell during the summer. On the positive side for Cincinnati, Ja’Marr Chase could have a good game if Burrow remains healthy, and if star starting CB for the Browns, Denzel Ward, is missing. While the Bengals have a star-studded roster, they might start slowly with new players and a couple of injuries. The Browns could experience the same, but I’m optimistic about their additions of Zadarius Smith and Elijah Moore. With DeShaun Watson less rusty in 2023, I believe they’ll narrowly win this one.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Minnesota Vikings: Vikings -5, 0.5 point @ 10/11

Even with the Bucs retaining some decent pieces on defence, this game could get ugly. Baker Mayfield is starting at QB for the Bucs, and there are questions surrounding their running game. It’s challenging to see them generating much offense, unless Evans and Godwin have a big game. On the other hand, the Vikings offense looks like a juggernaut with Jefferson, Hockenson in his second year with the Vikings, rookie Jordan Addison, and Matterson at running back. Kirk Cousins is also in a contract year and will focus on putting up big numbers. Minnesota is a tough place to visit, and with the spread still within a touchdown, I like the Vikings to secure the win.

Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Commanders: Commanders -7, 1 point @ 10/11

No matter what the spread is against the Cardinals this year, take it. They appear to be in full tank mode.

Tennessee Titans @ New Orleans Saints: N/A.

There are too many unknowns in this game, so I’m staying away from making a prediction.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts: Under 46, 0.5 point @ 10/11

I’m comfortable taking the under in this matchup as the Jaguars haven’t won at Indy since 2017, and the Colts have a shaky offense. The Colts are missing Jonathan Taylor due to his holdout/PUP list and have rookie QB Anthony Richardson under centre, making his NFL debut. The Jaguars look promising this year, but this game might turn into a low-scoring, defensive struggle, which is why I’m betting on the under. The Jags had a respectable defence last year (12th in points allowed), and if the Colts can’t plug their offensive holes, this bet should pay off.

Philadelphia Eagles @ New England Patriots: Under 45.5, 0.5 point @ 10/11

This game appears to be a prime candidate for the under. Both teams had top-ten defences last season in terms of yards and points allowed (the Patriots were 11th, which is close enough), and the lesser team is at home. Bill Belichick in Foxborough is a tough challenge for any team, even a high-powered Eagles offense. Add in the likelihood of rust for both offenses, and you have a recipe for a low-scoring affair.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos: N/A.

With Sean Payton coming in for the Broncos and Derek Carr gone from the Raiders, I’ll wait a bit before making predictions about these teams.

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants: N/A.

No selection here.

Player Prop, 1 point.