WEEK 10 RECORD: 1-4.

WEEK 10 PROFIT/LOSS: -3.04 points.

NAP RECORD: 3-6.

2023 OVERALL RECORD: 32-57.

2023 TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: -21.62 points.

2022 TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: +21.32 points.

Apologies for the lack of delivery in week 11, I needed a whopper of a break after the Ravens threw away the NAP. Bouncing back this week, however, with a focus on player props, as they have been going a lot better than the games.

PACKERS @ DETROIT: LIONS ML and over 45.5, 1 point @ 1.25/1.

Stats:

• 4-6 and 1-4 away from home.
• Middle of the pack for all offensive categories.
• 17^th in total defensive yards, 7^th in passing yards allowed, 28^th in rushing yards allowed and 10^th in points allowed.
• 21^st in turnovers with a -3 differential. Jordan Love has been throwing interceptions at will.
• Missing Aaron Jones, Luke Musgrave and Emmanuel Wilson.

Stats:

• 8-2 and 4-1 at home.
• 2^nd in total offensive yards, 4^th in passing, 5^th in rushing and 6^th in points scored.
• 9^th in total defensive yards, 16^th in passing, 5^th in rushing and 21^st in points allowed.
• 17^th in turnovers with -2.
• Missing CJ Gardner Johnson and Jonah Jackson.

Comments:

I really like the Lions in this one. They are 8-2 for the first time since 1962 and have had a lot of success over the Packers lately. They have won the last four meetings between the two sides, including a 34-20 win in Lambeau field in September. Also, the Lions strength is built on their run game and face a weak Packers run defence that is currently ranked 25^th. I have called who I think will win this game above, but my smart money will be on the player props in this game. David Montgomery scored three touchdowns in that game with Green Bay, which validates their poor run defence. Over the last few weeks, however, the team has started to lean on rookie, Jahmyr Gibbs and he has out carried Monty as of late. Gibbs had eight rushing attempts against the Packers, in September, but averaged 5 yards per carry, to Monty’s 3.78.

• Gibbs over 47.5 rushing yards – 1 point @ 5/6
• Gibbs anytime – 1 point @ 10/11
• Same game multi – 0.5 point @ 1.75/1.

I wouldn’t hold it against you if you wanted to go with David Montgomery too.

COMMANDERS @ COWBOYS:

Ceedee Lamb Over 93.5 yards, 1 point @ 5/6.

• Washington are ranked 30^th in passing yards allowed.
• In their last two home games against Washington, Lamb had 97 and 66 yards receiving.
• Has at least 117 yards in four of his last five. The one miss was against a really good Carolina secondary, last week.
• Has at least 7 receptions in four of his last five games and at least 11 receptions in three of those games.
• Highest projected wide receiver in Fantasy this week.

Dak Prescott to throw 3+ touchdowns, 1.5 points @ 2/1.

• Has thrown at least three TDs in three of his last four games.
• Washington are currently conceding the most points to QBs in Fantasy.
• Tommy DeVito threw three TDs for the Giants last week.
• Prescott is 5-0, with 13 TDs and no picks against Washington at home in his career.

49ERS @ SEAHAWKS:

Geno Smith under 236.5 yards passing, 1 point @ 5/6.

• Geno left the game for a period last week, due to an injury to his throwing arm. I would have concerns for his durability this week against the best d-line in the league, which just added Chase Young.
• Of his ten games this season, he has only eclipsed 236 yards, 50% of the time.
• The Niners have more INTs than anyone else in the league.
• The Niners are conceding 221 yards passing per game, on average.