DIVISIONAL ROUND RECORD: 4-1.
DIVISIONAL ROUND PROFIT/LOSS: +2.31 points.
NAP RECORD: 5-9.
2023 OVERALL RECORD: 58-86.
2023 TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: -28.84 points.
2022 TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: +21.32 points.
CHIEFS @ RAVENS: Chiefs +4.5, 1 point @ 10/11
Mahomes is inevitable… even against teams with better stats The Ravens have been the best defence all year, continuing that run of form into the post season. They were #1 in points allowed, but 6th in total yards allowed, 14th in rushing and 6th passing. Obviously points allowed is where its at, but getting down into the detail, they allowed 4.5 yards a run, which was only good enough for 25th in the league. This is something that Pacheco may be able to exploit on Sunday night. They held the Texans to 38 yards on the ground, in the divisional round, but the Texans’ run game has not been their strength all year. Looking at the other side of the ball for the Ravens, it all starts with the upcoming MVP. Lamar had another huge game against the Texans, putting up four total touchdowns. He had 100 yards on the ground, with two TDs and 152 yards through the air and two TDs. I was skeptical that he could land such a performance, but he did. The one worry I would have is that himself and the Ravens offence did not put this game out of sight until the fourth quarter. It was 17-10 going into the fourth, before they started to pull away. I feel like if Mahomes and Kansas are only seven points down, at worst, going into the fourth, that they’ll come up clutch and get the job done.
Mahomes is just the man. Six straight trips to the AFC championship has solidified himself as this generation’s top dog. The Chiefs performance against the Bills was exactly what you want to be seeing at this stage of the season, as their best players stepped up in the right moments to secure a massive road win. Mahomes threw two TDs, both to Kelce and he also scrambled nicely, when he had to. Their defence has been top class all year, ranking in second in points allowed, but were definitely weak last week against the run, particularly Josh Allen. Not ideal when going into a matchup with Lamar.
Looking at the year in review and what the bookies think, you would say that the Ravens are a decent shout to head to the Super Bowl. Unfortunately, my feeling about Lamar are the same as they were last week. This is a different ball game altogether. Mahomes, Kelce and Andy Reid, with a top-quality defence, is a much different proposition and I just trust Mahomes to get the job done and secure another AFC title. The added points are a bonus.
Player Bet: Lamar Jackson to throw an INT – 1 point @ 11/10.
Same game multi: Chiefs +4.5, INT by Lamar and over 8.5 rushing attempts by Lamar – 1 point @ 4/1.
LIONS @ 49ERS: Lions +7.5, 1 point @ 5/6
I have been back and forth on this one all week. I can see it going either way, but I’ll try and dissect it as best I can, so you can make you own pick. Looking at the Lions first, you have to say that the majority of NFL fans are willing this team to the Super Bowl. They have had two good wins in the post season so far, a close battle with the Rams and a solid win over the Bucs. Jared Goff has played well, throwing three TDs and no picks, and has enabled his young stars to perform on the biggest stage. Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta and Amon Ra St. Brown have all scored, as well as David Montgomery. On defence, Aidan Hutchinson has been on fire, logging three sacks in those two games. Overall, their defence has been ok and ranks second in turnover differential in the post season. They picked off Baker twice in the divisional round, which is good news, seeing as Brock Purdy has been prone to have a pick here and there. The bad news is that Baker also threw for 350 yards and three TDs. They also conceded over six yards a carry to Rachaad White last week, and as we’ve seen, when CMC rushes for over 75 yards, the Niners usually win. The Lions have been bad against the run in the post season but were exceptionally good in the regular season. So, if you’re a Lions fan, you are hoping that regular season form shows up here.
Looking at the Niners, you can say they are up there with the Ravens as the most complete team in the league. They are 3rd in terms of points allowed per game and have one of the best offences in the league, centred around McCaffrey. Their passing game is rock solid, with George Kittle making All Pro this year, and Aiyuk and Deebo being their usual selves. However, it is possible that Deebo misses this game with a shoulder injury and the Niners yards per play significantly drops when he is not on the field. As mentioned, their defence is elite, putting Jordan Love in a blender last week, keeping him under 200 yards passing and forcing him into two interceptions. Bosa, Chase Young, Dre Greenlaw and Fred will all to go to work again this week and to put Goff under pressure and when Goff’s under pressure, he generally doesn’t perform well (shock). He is currently 1-5 against the Niners.
This should be a cracker, but at this moment in time, I am going with the Lions to cover 7.5. It could be a home trouncing, with the Niners defence making Goff look very silly, but I don’t think it will. The Packers and Aaron Jones ran all over the Niners last week and the Lions are an even better running team. The Niners also barely made it past the Packers and have slipped up during the regular season, with a bad three game losing stretch. They are definitely not invincible, even at home, and the Lions have a special feeling about them this year. Keep Jared Goff upright and they might just do it, but I’ll take them on the handicap, just to be safe.
Player Bet: Gibbs anytime, 1 point @ 6/4.
Same game multi: Detroit win, Gibb anytime, Purdy over 0.5 INT – 1 point @ 4/1.
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