Xmas Eve Week 16 Bets:
Cincinnati Bengals @ New England Patriots: Bengals -3 (NAP) 2 points @ 10/11
Joe Burrow is lights out at the moment. Down 17-0 to the Bucs in the first half last week, Burrow threw four TDs to get them back into it ]and more as they went on to win 34-23 and get us back on track with the NAPs. Being down 17 zip is not ideal, but we’ll take it as a blip, as the Bucs have been dog rough on offence this year. They are 18th in terms of yards per game and 28th in terms of points allowed. The Patriots are even worse in terms of yards per game (25th), but better on the scoreboard (17th). Their offence is running through Rhamondre Stevenson at the moment, as he put up 172 rushing yards in their loss to the Raiders but is listed as questionable on this week’s injury report. He’ll likely play but is obviously carrying a knock. Even if he does play, the Bengals’ run defence is very solid, as they are currently ranked 8th in terms of rushing yards allowed per game.
The Patriots defence is top class, but the Bengals offence is better, and with the Patriots being hit or miss going forward, I’m going to ride with the Bengals on this one. Some injury worries on the D-Line for Cincinnati are a concern but not enough to put me off them.
Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers: Lions -2.5, 1.5 points @ 10/11
My Lions haven’t let me down in a while and they aren’t about to here either. They have won six in their last seven and are not about to be slowed down by the Panthers. The Panthers are looking much better since they fired Rhule, but still lost to the Steelers in week 15 by eight points. The Lion’s confidence is up and will look to expose a Panthers D that is susceptible to the run. They are bottom half in most important statistical run categories and with Deandre Swift now fully healthy, you would think that Detroit will have success on the ground with their one-two punch of Swift and Williams. Goff is also playing at a top tier level so I think their fire power will be too much for Carolina to handle. Love this pick.
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans: Texans +5, 1 point @ 10/11
Yes, you read that right. I’m rolling with my Texans this week. The spread is +-5 at the moment, which I would usually take in a heartbeat for Tennessee, but the Texans have put up spirited performances in their last two games. They lost to the Chiefs by six in overtime and broke my NAP win streak by keeping their game with Dallas within four. In both those games they scored at least 24 and now face a Titans team that is giving up more yards through the air than any other team. The Titans O-Line is decimated, and Ryan Tannehill looks like he won’t be playing. Henry has run for over 200 yards in his last four games against the Texans, but if they stuff the box this time, hopefully they can keep him under 200… After Henry, the Titans don’t have much else on offer. This game will be shocking bad so probably best to avoid, but if you fancy it, I like the Texans to hang around. Kind of…
Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers: 49ers -6.5, 1 point @ 10/11
The 49ers are going to put Heinicke in a blender in this game. They’ll force at least two turnovers by Heinicke alone. They are the number one defence and Heinicke has been a bit of a liability, even with the inspiration he has been providing the team. PFF say that he has more turnover worthy plays that any other QB in 2022. Not exactly what you want to hear as you head in to play the Niners. The Niners are top of the yards allowed, points allowed and defensive DVOA statistics. At home, they will be too much for a spirited Washington team. Purdy and the boys roll on.
Remaining Xmas Eve Week 16 Bets:
Atlanta Falcons @ Baltimore Ravens: Falcons +7.5
The Ravens are doing my nut in at the moment. Putting up three points against Cleveland is atrocious, even with Huntley filling in for Lamar. They now sit at 9-5 and need to get the offence moving if they are to do any damage in the playoffs. The Falcons present a decent opportunity to do that, but Lamar is still very questionable to play. If he doesn’t, I’m sure this line will drop, but for now, let’s get on it and take it. The Ravens have three wins in their last five, but against very week opposition. And, they have barely won those. Pittsburgh by two, Denver by one and the Panthers by ten (ok, credit for that, but they only scored 13). They scored more than 16 points once in that five-game stretch, when they scored 27 in their loss to Jacksonville. The Falcons are 1-4 in their last five and are a different team away from home, but with Lamar looking like he will be out, I think they might stay in this one. The Ravens stop what Atlanta does well, but I think they do it so well that the Ravens won’t slow them down enough. The Falcons rushed for 231 yards last week, as Tyler Allgeier established himself as a certified dude, rushing for +130 yards. This game will suck, but I think it could be something like 20-13 Ravens.
Buffalo Bills @ Chicago Bears: Over 40.5
The over/under on this one is suspiciously low and that generally means that the under hits, but the Bears have conceded at least 25 points in their last seven games and the Bills are too powerful on offence. They are so bad defensively and with Justin Fields playing on God mode, he’ll surely put up almost 20 points himself.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys: Eagles +4.5
Minshew is in for Hurts this week, hence Philly being the underdogs. I still like them here to keep it at least within the handicap. The Cowboys can be run on and the Eagles can run the rock really well.
That’s it, folks. Have a nice Xmas and I’ll do my best to get something up for tomorrow’s games.
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