NAP RECORD: 11-6.

OVERALL RECORD: 115-137-4.

TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: +15.17 points.

WEEK 17 RECORD: 3-5.

WEEK 17 PROFIT/LOSS: -2.46.

Wild Card Weekend Bets:

Seattle Seahawks (9-8) @ San Francisco 49ers (13-4):

• Seattle Offensive DVOA (Run: 23rd / Pass: 8th).
• San Francisco Offensive DVOA (Run: 13th / Pass: 3rd).
• Seattle Defensive DVOA (Run 25th / Pass: 17th).
• San Francisco Defensive DVOA (Run: 2nd / Pass: 5th).

2022 Head2Head:

• Week 2: Seattle @ San Fran: 27-7 win for San Fran.
• Week 15: San Fran @ Seattle: 21-13 win for San Fran.

Game Selection: 49ers -9.5, 1 point @ 10/11.

I like the Niners here. They are 2-0 over Seattle this year, with their home game being a massive 20-point win over their NFC West rivals. Seattle did hold it together a little better when Purdy was under centre for San Fran, and they were at home, but this is back in the Niners home turf. I can see this one getting a little messy, once the stage doesn’t get too big for Purdy, but he hasn’t shown anything this year that would make you think that he’ll blow up. The playoffs are a different story, but the Niners have such a good team and overall scheme, Shanahan should get the gameplan right to get them over the line here. Gino Smith has been good this year, but the 49ers have the best turnover differential and with their run and overall defence being so stout, I like them to take care of business here and get a big W. I like the Niners will go all the way to the Super Bowl this year (likely kiss of death).

LA Chargers (10-7) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8):

• LA Offensive DVOA (Run: 22nd / Pass: 17th).
• Jacksonville Offensive DVOA (Run: 20th / Pass: 6th).
• LA Defensive DVOA (Run: 29th / Pass: 10th).
• Jacksonville Defensive DVOA (Run: 11th / Pass: 30th).

2022 Head2Head:

• Week 3: Jacksonville @ LA: 38-10 win for Jacksonville.

Game Selection: Over 47.5, 1 point @ 10/11.

This one I really can’t wrap my head around in terms of who is going to win, but I do like the over. The Jaguars put up big numbers in week three, with Lawrence throwing for 262 yards and three TDs. James Robinson put up 100 yards on the ground, with Etienne rushing for 45. Etienne has obviously taken a huge leap forward in Robinson’s absence and should go very well here against one of the worst run stopping defences in the league. Five wins on the trot is sure to give Trevor Lawrence massive confidence, so I have no doubt he’ll put in a good showing at home.

Even with Jacksonville winning 38-10, away from home, in week three, I’m not confident on them winning this one. The Chargers were without Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler put up a grand total of 5 yards rushing. They will be better here and as the 30^th DVOA ranking of Jacksonville’s passing defence, they should put up yards. Translating those yards into TDs will be the real element. I’m going with the over due to the potential of both offences getting hot, but if you put a gun to my head and told me to pick a winner, I would go with the Jaguars.

Miami Dolphins (9-8) @ Buffalo Bills (13-3):

• Miami Offensive DVOA (Run: 16th / Pass: 4th).
• Buffalo Offensive DVOA (Run: 11th / Pass: 2nd).
• Miami Defensive DVOA (Run: 4th / Pass: 25th).
• Buffalo Defensive DVOA (Run: 3rd / Pass: 9th).

2022 Head2Head:

• Week 3: Buffalo @ Miami: 27-19 win for Miami.
• Week 15: Miami @ Buffalo: 32-29.

Game Selection: Bills -13, 1 point @ 10/11.

This one could get ugly. The Dolphins had lost five straight before narrowly beating the Jets, 11-6, last week to get into the playoffs. Tua and Teddy B were missing in action, with Skylar Thompson under centre, and it could be the same here. Thompson threw for 152 yards and no TDs and now goes up against one of the best defences in the league. Away from home. To make matters worse, four offensive linemen for the Dolphins were listed on the injury report yesterday. The worst news being Terron Armstead. Most will likely play but will be managing niggles. On the flip side, Buffalo are coming into this hot and ready to rock. A twelve-point win over New England really sets the tone for entering the playoffs and with their sheer will to win for Damar, I think they’ll win this one big. Miami’s passing defence has been poor recently as well, so Josh Allen should have a big game.

NY Giants (9-7-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (13-4):

• NY Offensive DVOA (Run: 7th / Pass: 10th).
• Minnesota Offensive DVOA (Run: 28th / Pass: 15th).
• NY Defensive DVOA (Run: 32nd / Pass: 22nd).
• Minnesota Defensive DVOA (Run: 19th / Pass: 26th).

2022 Head2Head:

• Xmas Eve: NY @ Minnesota: 27-24 win for Minnesota.

Game Selection: Giants +3, 1 point @ 10/11.

Uh oh, Vikings fans. Here comes Kirk Cousins in a playoff game. It’s not the proper prime time game, but its not your standard 1pm kick-off on a Sunday, either. Cousins is 1-3 in the playoffs and 1-1 with Minnesota. His win and loss came in the 2019 playoffs when Minnesota narrowly edged New Orleans in the Wild Card, but lost to the 49ers in the Divisional round. He is notoriously not the same player in the big spots, but definitely showed flashes of getting over that hump this year. The Minnesota offence is seventh in total yards and eight in total points per game. Justin Jefferson led the league in receiving, and his surrounding pieces like Thielen, Cook and Hockenson have been solid for the most part. The issue with the Vikings isn’t their offence, but rather their defence and it’s inability to allow the offence finish off a game by more than one score. The defence is ranked 30^th in terms of points allowed, which I’m sure Giants HC, Brian Daboll is licking his lips at.

The Giants have been a revelation under Daboll and even pushed the Eagles close last week with their second team. Their offence is surprisingly good and Daboll has seemingly unleashed Danny Dimes. They lost to Minnesota, in Minnesota in week 16, by exactly this week’s spread, but I feel they will keep this even closer and may even win it. Cousins is going to break some Minnesota hearts.

Baltimore Ravens (10-7) @ Cincinnati Bengals (12-4):

• Baltimore Offensive DVOA (Run: 2nd / Pass: 16th).
• Cincinnati Offensive DVOA (Run: 4th / Pass: 7th).
• Baltimore Defensive DVOA (Run: 7th / Pass: 11th).
• Cincinnati Defensive DVOA (Run: 14th / Pass: 12th).

2022 Head2Head:

• Cincinnati @ Baltimore: 19-17 win for Baltimore (Lamar was playing).
• Baltimore @ Cincinnati: 27-16 win for Cincinnati (Lamar wasn’t playing).

Game Selection: Bengals -9.5, 1 point @ 10/11.

The Ravens without Lamar are more like crows. They just have nothing going forward. In their last five games, they have put up 16, 13, 17, 13 and 16 points. They are 2-5 over that stretch, which means their defence is pretty good, but it needs to be better than pretty good to keep up with this Cincinnati offence. The Bengals, as a whole, as rolling. They have won their last eight games, some of them very comprehensively. Their eleven point win over Baltimore last week gives me hope that they’ll do the same again here as Burrow only threw for one TD. Baltimore’s defence is built on their run stopping, so if Joey B can get back to his usual 3/4 passing TD performances, I think they should win big here. Anthony Brown (ya who is he like?) could be starting again at QB for  Baltimore and with a game of tape on him, Cincinnati’s passing D should be able to slow him down a little more. This will be a gritty AFC North playoff game, but the Bengals should take this one easy.

Dallas Cowboys (12-5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9):

• Dallas Offensive DVOA (Run: 10th / Pass: 13th).
• Tampa Bay Offensive DVOA (Run: 30th / Pass: 11th).
• Dallas Defensive DVOA (Run: 5th / Pass: 3rd).
• Tampa Bay Defensive DVOA (Run: 13th / Pass: 15th).

2022 Head2Head:

• Week 1: Tampa Bay @ Dallas: 19-3 win for Tampa Bay.

Game Selection: Bucs +2.5, 1 point @ 10/11.

I have a bad bad feeling for Dallas here. The Cowboys are bottlers. Prescott led the league in INTs and only played 12 games. They just lost 26-6 to the Washington Commanders, who put out there B team. They have a far better record than Tampa and are ahead in most statistical categories, yet the bookies have the spread at only 2.5 in favour of Dallas. The Bucs really suck, which is making this decision harder than it needs to be, but Brady gonna Brady. Home advantage will help and with Tampa Bay’s run defence being able to slow down Dallas’s strength, I think they might edge this one. The Cowboys’ defence hasn’t been the same either over the last few weeks. They have conceded, 26, 13, 34, 40 and 27 over their last five games. Jerry Jones is going to be cracking some skulls on Monday night.

Play Prop Bets & ACCA:

One point on each leg and the acca.