NAP RECORD: 3-4.

OVERALL RECORD: 61-55-1.

TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: -12.05 points.

WEEK 8 TNF RECORD: 1-0.

WEEK 8 PROFIT/LOSS: +0.91 points.

Another profitable Thursday in the books. Roll on Sunday.

Week 7 Bets:

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans: Titans -2.5 (NAP), 2.5 Points @ 10/11

The Titans disrespect is real. -2.5 against a Texans team with one win, who just gave up a billion yards and 3 TDs to Josh Jacobs, and now face the King. The Titans are also on a four-game winning streak, including a win against the Raiders. They’re not doing anything flashy but are growing into the season. Tannehill is interception free since week four and if he can keep his powder dry again this week, they will win this game. There isn’t really much else to say on this one, except for the fact that the Titans are scoring more points per game, conceding less points per game and have a Hall of Fame running back facing the worst ranked run D. Titan up against my poor ole Texans.

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons: Falcons -4, 2 Points @ 10/11

Let’s not get carried away with the Panthers win last week against the Bucs. Brady and the Bucs suck so far this year and their usual strength, the passing game, couldn’t get going against a good passing defence. Before their week seven matchup with the Bucs, they Panthers had lost by 14 to the Rams, 22 to the 49ers and 10 to the Cardinals. While their passing defence has been good, their run defence has been bottom half. Their offence has obviously struggled as well, and their 21-point display last week was the most points they have scored since week three. PJ Walker has been solid for them at QB, but he’s not exactly Patrick Mahomes. The Panthers offence took another blow during the week, when Chubba Hubbard was ruled out for this Sunday’s game. Dontrell Hilliard has been stepping in well in CMCs absence, but to be honest, Carolina need all the help they can get on the offensive side of the ball.

The Falcons obviously didn’t live up to my lofty expectations last week, but the Bengals got red hot a little earlier than I anticipated. The Falcons also can’t really play from behind. They can run the rock as good as anyone but trying to come back from a big deficit is not really their style. The good news for Atlanta, Carolina can be exposed by the run. If the Falcons can get off to an early lead, or at least not go down too much, their ground game should get the job done. They are missing their #1 CB, AJ Terrell, but I’m not really worried too much about that, seeing as the Panthers aren’t that strong at tossing the pigskin. LFG Dirty Birds.

Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys: Under 42.5, 1.5 points @ 10/11

Even though I think Dallas will win this game, I am not comfortable taking them on the spread. -10 is massive and underdogs this year have shown serious resilience in the face of big favouritism. What I do like is the under. Both teams are conceding less than 19 points per game and scoring less than 19.5, on average. I think Dallas will put Justin Fields in a blender and Dak is still easing his way back in. Zeke looks like he will be out as well.

Remaining Week 7 Picks

Denver Broncos @ Jacksonville Jaguars (London Game): Jaguars -2.5

Both of these teams are in total freefall so this one is very hard to predict. It’s also on in London, which generally doesn’t help the everyday punter. Both teams have lost their last four and have slipped to 2-5. Both entered into the season with amazing promise but have now completely fallen off the face of the earth. Although Broncos fans wish Russ would fall a little further, with his cringemerchantry reaching insane heights. I’m not sure which is worse, him saying he has wolverine blood or the fact he was doing high knees on the plane over, when everyone was trying to sleep.

The Broncos have the number one ranked redzone defence but the number 32 ranked redzone offence. The Jaguars are middle of the pack for both. The Broncos’ D has been keeping them in games, but they are missing a fairly big piece of the puzzle this week with Baron Browning being out. The Broncos will also be without Mike Boone and Cam Fleming. The Jaguars have been bad, but they had big chances last week to beat the Giants. Looking at the past performances of both teams you would have to logically sit in the Jaguars camp. The Jaguars also have a win at Spurs’, so have good memories there. I like the Jaguars enough here to pick them but not enough to bet on them. If that makes sense…

Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings: Vikings -3.5

I really like the Vikings in this one. Kyler Murray can be game changing, but the Cardinals are not a good team. They’re 27^th in terms of points allowed and gave up 34 points to a bad Saints team in week seven. Andy Dalton did have two pic sixes, but he also threw for 361 yards and four TDs. The Saints had five receivers go over 50 yards receiving and Chris Olave eclipsed 100 yards. Cousins and Jefferson should go nuts in this game. This is a standard midday game at home, so I have no fear of Cousins getting shaky legged under the bright lights. The Vikings are 5-1 and 3-0 at home. They are giving up yards but not points, signalling they have been decent in redzone defence. The same cannot be said for Arizona, who are the second worst redzone defence. Let’s get this bread, Kirk. Coming off a bye week, Drip Cousins should have no problem leading his team to a W and a cover of the spread.

Las Vegas Raiders @ NO Saints: Raiders -1.5

I’m back on the Raiders train. Choo Choo bitches. The Raiders looked good last week as they bulldozed their way through my mighty Texans. Josh Jacobs is playing at an elite level, putting up video game numbers. His three touchdowns last week single handily demolished me in Fantasy. Tough times. But in all seriousness, the Raiders are looking much better over the last couple of weeks. The same cannot be said for New Orleans. Two losses on the trot sees them drop to 2-5, with a 1-3 record at home.

The Saints have been putting up good yardage totals, but their turnover differential is killing them. They are running the rock well and Dalton has been aggressive, but the two pick sixes last week were killer. The probably won’t have the same success on the ground this week either. The Raiders are 9^th in terms of rushing yards allowed. The Saints could get at them through the air, but the inconsistency would be a worry if you are a Saints punter.

As mentioned, the Raiders are on the up and Josh Jacobs has been key to that. He should feast again this week as the Saints are 21^st in terms of rushing yards allowed. I would like to see more from the Raiders receiving group and this could be a decent opportunity with Marshon Lattimore still out. Davante Adams is questionable with an illness, but he was limited at practice yesterday, so is showing some signs of life.

This will be a close one, but momentum is a real thing. I’m going to side with the team on the rise and take the Raiders -1.5.

Miami Dolphins @ Detroit Lions: Lions +3.5

My initial thoughts on this game were that it should be an easy win for Miami, but at deeper review, it could be a cracking game. The Lions have been in a bit of a freefall but are getting healthier for this game. Amon Ra St. Brown, DeAndre Swift and TJ Hockenson were all full participants in practice this week. Brown and Swift are massive pieces of the offensive puzzle for Detroit. The Lions missed Swift and St. Brown for their last two games, as Detroit only put up a total of six points in the process. Before that, Detroit were the number one scoring offence in the league. Miami presents a good opportunity to get back in the saddle, as they are currently giving up 23.6 points per game, on average, which is good enough for 23^rd in the league.

It was great to see Tua back for Miami last week, following on from a scary few weeks. That’s four wins from four with him under centre. He definitely makes the offence click and now has a chance to go wild against the worst defence in the league. Detroit are giving up the most points per game and the second most yards on the ground. The bad news for Miami is that they aren’t exactly putting up massive numbers running the rock. They are the third ranked passing offence but the 29^th ranked running offence. If the Lions can get a couple of quick touchdowns, this should be an exciting game and if they are to have any chance, they need to go ahead early.

The Lions are like a cornered animal at 1-5 and Dan Campbell is certainly feeling the heat, so I like them to put it up to Miami. Hopefully the +3.5 points will do the trick.

NE Patriots @ NY Jets: Patriots -2.5

The Patriots own the Jets. Zach Wilson to throw three INTs.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles: Eagles -10.5

Steelers games have been my kryptonite but it’s hard to see how Pittsburgh get anywhere close to winning this game. The spread is huge and 2022 has been the year of the underdog playing away from home, but this game kind of feels like the Bills Steelers game in week five, where Pittsburgh lost 38-3. The Steelers are 1-3 away from home but put in a spirited performance last week against the Dolphins. Pickett has been aggressive throwing the ball since he’s come in, which has led to decent yardage but also plenty of INTs. Not exactly ideal when you’re facing a secondary that contains, CJ Gardner-Johnson, Darius Slay and James Bradberry. The Eagles are the number one team in terms of turnover differential and the Steelers are in the bottom ten. There is a high chance of multiple picks in this game for the Eagles and maybe even a defensive touchdown. Outside of Kenny Pickett slinging it around the place, the Steelers haven’t been able to get much more going on offence. They are 27^th in terms of rushing yards and 31^st in points scored. Matt Canada’s offence has been a hot mess and it’s unlikely to get much better here.

In terms of Philly’s offence, it is as dynamic as they come. They are fourth in terms of points scored and fifth in total offence. They are also fourth in terms of redzone touchdowns, which is mainly due to the explosiveness of their commander in chief, Jalen Hurts. Josh Allen dominated the Steelers when they played, and I like Hurts to put up similar statistics here and get a comprehensive W.

NY Giants @ Seattle Seahawks: Giants +3.5

The bookies are seeing this as a dead heat, as it is generally accepted that home advantage is worth three points. Good news for Giants fans is that the away team has been winning a higher percentage in 2022. However, Giants fans should feel a little pissed off that their 6-1 team (3-0 away) are underdogs to the 4-3 Seattle Seahawks. Giving credit to the Seahawks, they are on a decent run, winning three of their last four. But I do worry about the strength of their opponents. Wins against the Chargers, Cardinals and Lions aren’t exactly tier one wins, when you compare them to Big Blue’s most recent three wins, Jags, Ravens and Packers.

Both teams here like to run rock and they both do it very well. Both teams have porous run defences too, so Saquon and Ken Walker fantasy owners should be licking their lips. The Giants are the second ranked rushing offence facing the 31^st ranked rushing defence. The Seahawks are 10^th ranked rushing offence facing the 28^th ranked rushing defence. These teams are so evenly matched, but DK Metcalf being out, the Giants stellar redzone defence (6^th), the poor points allowed total for Seattle (29^th), and the extra points are swaying this one for me towards New York.

Washington Commanders @ Indianapolis Colts: N/A.

The only thing interesting about this game, and I mean the only thing, is Sam Ehlinger starting ahead of Matt Ryan.

San Francisco 49ers @ LA Rams: 49ers ML

Kyle Shanahan owns Sean McVay in the regular season. The Niners have won the last seven regular season matchups between the pair. But the Rams did win the one that mattered in last season’s playoffs. The Niners beat the Rams already this season, 24-9 in Levi Stadium but travel to Sofi for this matchup on the back of a blowout loss against the Chiefs.

The spread on this one is non-existent. The Rams have not been good this season, but the Niners are 1-3 away from home. Both teams are putting up really good defensive numbers but are somewhat struggling going forward. Stafford has been really bad for the Rams, throwing eight INTs to only six TDs, which isn’t ideal when your team has a non-existent run game. As explosive as the Niners are, they aren’t putting up massive numbers either. I suppose that’s what you get when you have Jimmy G under centre.

This one is a tough to call, but I think CMC having another week at the playbook and the previous history between the two, will see this one slide in favour of the 49ers.

Green Bay Packers @ Buffalo Bills: Bills -11

The Packers are scoring 18.3 points per game on average and now face the number one defence in terms of points allowed. They will also be without their #1 WR, Allen Lazard. Things are looking fairly bleak for Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers wasn’t mincing his words on the Pat McAfee Show, earlier in the week. Rodgers said that players ‘who are making too many mistakes shouldn’t be playing. Gotta start cutting some reps’, during a scathing review of his team’s performance. He receivers have been bad but he can’t come out and criticize them in public like that, when he isn’t playing as good as he could either.

Unlike the Packers, everything is smooth sailing for the Bills. They are the best defence and the second-best offence. They are a juggernaut, and the struggling Packers are not going to slow them down here.

Player Prop Bets & Acca:

One point on each selection and the acca.