NAP RECORD: 2-4.
OVERALL RECORD: 49-49-1.
TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: -20.01 points.
WEEK 7 TNF RECORD: 0-1.
WEEK 7 TNF PROFIT/LOSS: -0.5 points.
Killer blow on Thursday night, with Kyler missing out on his rushing total by three yards. We absolutely nailed the prediction for the game and D-Hops comeback, but Kyler just couldn’t get the job done in the end. On the bright side, we got our first good TNF game in ages. Hopefully the rest of week seven will be as fruitful.
All Week 7 Picks:
Seattle Seahawks @ LA Chargers: Seahawks +5 (NAP), 2 points @ 10/11
The Chargers are currently playing worse than their record. The Bolts are sitting at 4-2, joint top of the AFC West, but should have lost their last two games (Broncos & Browns). Russell Wilson threw for 15 yards in the second half on Monday night and still got the game to overtime. It’s not that the Chargers have been playing stellar defence either, conceding 28, 24 and 38 points, respectively, in their three games previously. The injuries to Joey Bosa, Keenan Allen and others are certainly causing them some harm. It also doesn’t help that their ‘star’ signing JC Jackson is getting cut to pieces in the secondary. Not ideal when you’re facing a Seattle passing offence that can be a little spicy. DK Metcalf and Lockett are producing some good numbers with Geno Smith at the helm, which is not something many predicted going into the season. Geno currently has the highest passer rating in the league and should be looking forward to facing a Chargers passing D that is middle of the pack. As good as Geno has been, the Seattle offence is built on the run. Ken Walker looks like a dude, putting up almost 100 hundred rushing yards and a tuddie last week against a stout Cardinals run D, and now faces a Chargers run D that is ranked 23rd in terms of yards allowed. The Seattle defence has been an issue but looked much better against Arizona last week. So, if they can replicate a similar performance this week, they should keep it within the large spread.
NY Jets @ Denver Broncos: Jets ML, 1 point @ 4/5
Even before Russell Wilson was announced as out for this contest, I was taking the Jets. They have taken a couple of big scalps the last couple of weeks, in the form of the Packers and the Dolphins. The win last week in Lambeau Field was a statement win. Beating Aaron Rodgers is tricky enough, never mind beating him in Lambeau Field. Granted, the Packers are not firing on all cylinders, but the Jets defence looked good. They held Green Bay to 10 total points, Rodgers to just one touchdown and their rushing game to 60 total yards. They now face a Broncos offence that is dead last in terms of points scored. Brett Rypien will be stepping in for Russell Wilson today and I don’t know if that’s a good or bad thing. The one good thing the Broncos are doing well is defence. They are currently the #1 ranked defence in terms of DVOA and will likely perform well again today. This will be a low scoring affair, so I wouldn’t hold taking the under against you. The under or the Jets win seem like the logical bets. I just like the Jets to win a little more.
Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys: Cowboys -6.5, 1.5 points @ 10/11
My general thoughts on this one is that it could be similar to the Lions and Patriots game in week five. The Lions were missing some key players and faced an elite defence away from home. The Lions will be without Swift, DJ Chark, Matt Nelson and many others, so will not exactly be primed to face a Dallas team on the rise, with their QB1 back under centre. Dak is making his come back tonight and it doesn’t get much easier than the Detroit defence. The Lions are giving up huge numbers on the ground and through the air and are currently the 32nd ranked defence in terms of points allowed. Their 34.0 points allowed per game is a league worst by a whopping 5.4 points. Dak may be a little rusty at the beginning, but I like their defence to start strong and for both the offence and the defence to be all over Detroit come the final whistle.
Green Bay Packers @ Washington Commanders: Over 41.5, 1 point @10/11
The Packers are in real trouble if they lose this game and it’s really up in the air which way it will go. The Packers have lost their last two, both games to New York teams, which would have not predicted before the season kicked off. The Commanders are performing even worse and currently sit at 2-4, with a 1-2 record at home. Both teams are averaging around 18 points per game but are conceding over 20 per game. The Packers have conceded 27 to both the Jets and Giants and 24 to the Patriots in the game before that. Wentz is out for the Commanders tonight, but I actually think that’s a good thing, as Heinicke steps in, and has proven in the past he can get things moving in the right direction for Washington. This points total is really low, so I think two teams with struggling defences, should allow it to be covered.
Remaining Week 7 Picks:
Atlanta Falcons @ Cincinnati Bengals: Falcons +6.5
The Falcons are 6-0 against the spread, so until they prove otherwise, I will be riding with them to cover. The only slight worry for the cover here is that Falcons have been giving up big yards through the air, and if there is one thing the Bengals do right, it’s throw the ball. Burrow is looking back to his best, throwing for 300 yards and 3 TDs last week against the Saints. The Bengals beat the Saints in a 30-26 thriller but were being gashed open by a second-string Saints team. Tre’Quan Smith was the Saints leading receiver with 43 yards, but the ground and pound was where New Orleans did their damage. The Saints put up 228 yards on the ground and Cincinnati will now face the third ranked rushing offence. Atlanta have been dominant on the ground, on both sides of the ball, so if they can get off to a good start here, I think they’ll be able to hang on and at least keep it within the spread. I think the Bengals will eventually turn a corner, but I’m hoping it won’t be today.
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens: Ravens -6.5
The Browns are not in a good way and have lost their last three straight. In their three losses, they conceded 38 to New England, 30 to the Chargers and 23 to Atlanta. Their defence is completely lost, giving up big yardage on the ground. Rhamondre Stevenson gashed them for 2 rushing TDs last week and Austin Ekeler put up 173 yards on 16 carries the week before that. They now face the sixth ranked rushing offence, who are averaging a solid 155.7 yards on the ground. JK Dobbins is out but Kenyan Drake has done ok since he came in. This feels like a big Lamar game as well, as he really needs to bounce back after a couple of sloppy performances over the last few games, especially in the fourth quarter. The Browns are looking to bounce back themselves, but the number one rushing offence may have some problems in leaning on their main asset in doing so. Cleveland will be without two starting offensive linemen and now face the eight ranked rushing D.
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans: Titans -2.5
Predicting Colts’ games this year has not been my strong suit. I got it wrong against the Chiefs and more recently, got my heart broken against the Jags. These two have faced off already this year, with the Titans winning 24-17 in Indianapolis, during week 5. As mentioned, the Colts got a big win last week against the Jags but should have lost the week previously against the Broncos. Their play generally revolves around Matt Ryan’s consistency. He had three TDs and no picks last week, but only two TDs and one pick and a forced fumble during their loss to Tennessee in week five. Their defence has also been a big strength, but they are missing a number of players this week. Kwity Paye, Shaq Leonard and JoJo Domann are all out. Missing All-Pro Leonard is big, especially when you’re facing King Henry. Henry put up almost 150 yards from scrimmage during week five’s game so hopefully he’ll do the same here. I like the home team here to get a big divisional win.
NY Giants @ Jacksonville Jaguars: Giants +3
The analytics say that this will be a big Jaguars win, but I’m going to ride with the 5-1 GMEN. The spread and the numbers all point towards Jacksonville winning this one, but for once, I am going to go against them. The Jags have the third ranked rushing defence, in terms of rushing yards allowed which I think is driving the majority of the money towards the Jaguars, but they still gave up over 200 to Philly. I would also trust Brian Daboll more than Doug Peterson in what I think will be a closely contested matchup. So, give me Daboll, Saquon, Danny Dimes and some extra points any day and I’ll be a happy man.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers: Bucs -13
The Bucs have not been good this year, but with the trading of CMC during the week, the Panthers are in full on tank mode. The stats really don’t matter on this one as it’s going to come down to whether or not the players are bought in enough to put in a spirited performance. But it does also help that the Bucs have beaten Carolina by at least 24 points in their last three matchups.
Houston Texans @ Las Vegas Raiders: Texans +7
The Texans have a better record than the Raiders and are seven-point underdogs here. I don’t for a second think that the Texans are a better team than the Raiders, but a full touchdown spread is pretty big. This will likely be a huge Josh Jacobs game, but the Texans have been pretty decent against the pass. Their rookie CBs, Petry and #3 overall pick, Stingley have been getting better as the games go on. The Texans have also been fairly stout in terms of conceding points, ranking 13th with 19.8. On the flipside, the Raiders are 28th in terms of points allowed. Now, they are putting up eight points more per game, on average. Raiders are also dealing with some injuries, as Waller is out and Renfrow, Mack Hollins and Jayon Brown are all questionable. I’m not overly confident on this pick, but a -7 spread for a team that is 1-4 just doesn’t do it for me.
KC Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers: Chiefs ML
Wow. What a matchup. The Chiefs travelling to the Bay area to face a team that just added CMC and has Nick Bosa and others back from injury. This a game that makes you turn redzone off. Pity it looks impossible to call. The spread is non existent here, which means we should get a cracker in Levi stadium. Trent Williams and Jimmie Ward are both off the injury report for San Fran, which is huge. Both teams have been stout against the run, but the Niners have been much better against the pass. The Chiefs are scoring almost 10 points more per game but conceding 10 points more exactly. This pick is entirely on gut, so proceed with caution, but I think Mahomes will bounce back after a gut-wrenching loss to the Bills in week six. I do hope they let CMC cook though, as my Fantasy team desperately needs it…
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Miami Dolphins: N/A.
Staying away from this one.
Chicago Bears @ New England Patriots: Patriots -8
Full review coming on Monday, but I think the Patriots are one of the bets of the week. They almost made it as the NAP.
Player Prop Bets & Acca:
One point on each selection and the acca.
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