NAP RECORD: 1-4.

OVERALL RECORD: 40-39-1.

UPDATED TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: -17.96 points.

WEEK 6 TNF RECORD: 1-1.

WEEK 6 TNF PROFIT/LOSS: +0.2 points.

Another TNF profit in the books… I’m really clinging on to anything here, as you can tell. But Sunday rolls back around in no time and it’s looking as good as ever this week. The record is above 0.500 after week 6 TNF, which is far and above the same mark last year, so things are looking really positive as we move towards the mid-week mark this season. And as ye know, I’m like Derrick Henry… I really hit my stride as the game goes on. Lock in the picks this week, she’s going to be good one. Bulldog country, let’s ride.

Week 6 Bets:

San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons: Falcons +5.5 (NAP), 2 points @10/11

The Falcons are the spread kings! 5-0 against the spread this year. Two wins, but three losses within the margin. I like them to do the same here and even push the 49ers close for the win. The Niners blew out the Panthers last week, but Carolina were obviously in a bad way, and rightfully fired their coach after the loss. The Niners also took some heavy blows in that matchup, losing Nick Bosa, Jimmy Ward and Emmanuel Mosley all to injury. All three look to be gone for this matchup, and to make matters worse, a number of players are also questionable. Kicker, Robbie Gould, Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw are all managing knocks. The 49ers also flew all the way across the country last week and have been in West Virginia this week, so not familiar territory.

The Falcons were unlucky not to beat the Bucs and have been super close in all their losses this year. If the 49ers weren’t so banged up, you could see them covering the spread, but now the Falcons offence might have some luck. The Falcons have also been sturdy against the run, the Niners strength. Home advantage always helps as well, so I feel very good taking the Falcons here with the points.

Cincinnati Bengals @ NO Saints: Bengals -2.5, 2 points @10/11

I like the Bengals here. The Bengals are currently 2-3 and have their backs against the wall. If they fall to 2-4, they are in real trouble and last year’s Super Bowl trip seems like a very distant memory. Good thing for them, they face a New Orleans team that is incredibly banged up. Jarvis Landry, Michael Thomas, Marshon Lattimore, Payton Turner are all out. Jameis Winston, Chris Olave, Marcus Maye and others are all questionable. Taysom Hill has been their entire offence the last couple of weeks, but he faces a stiff defence this week. The Bengals D are currently 13^th in total yards allowed and 8^th in points allowed. A stiff defence mixed with an offence that should come good, due to the Saints having their defensive injuries, should be enough to get the job done. Joe Burrow and JaMarr Chase have good memories in the Superdome, and I like them to have a big game and cover the 2.5 spread.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts: Jaguars +2.5, 1.5 points @10/11

Like the Cowboys and Rams game in week 5, this seems like a bit of a mad spread. The Jaguars blew out the Colts 24-0 in week two. Granted, they were at home, but Indianapolis still failed to put up a single point. The Jaguars D line were all over Ryan, logging five sacks, in turn forcing him in to three INTs. Trevor Lawrence on the other hand was picture perfect. He recorded 235 passing yards and 2 TDs, with no INTs. While I would say they should come closer together in this game, in terms of statistics, Lawrence should still come out on top.

Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce were missing for their week two match-up, but it’s not like they have set the world alight since they have come back. The Colts beat the Broncos last week, but as we have now seen for a number of the weeks, Denver are in real turmoil going forward. The Jags had an uncharacteristic loss to the Texans last week, but it seems to be that Houston are a bit of a bogey team for Jacksonville. They have now lost eight straight against them, which is a little wild. I would expect this game to finish within a touchdown, but in favour of Jacksonville. DUVALLLLL.

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles: Cowboys +6.5, 2 points @10/11

This is a massive spread for what will likely be such a low scoring game. Two elite defences going at it in primetime, in this massive NFC East showdown. This is a game that could cement Jalen Hurts a certified stud, if he can win it. If the Cowboys win it, they have to start being considered for a Super Bowl trip. Their defence will be able to get it done against anyone and with Dak back very soon, they offence can get moving once again. The Cowboys are 2-0 away and the Eagles are 2-0 at home. The Cowboys are 3^rd in terms of points allowed and the Eagles are 7^th. The Eagles have obviously been better offensively but were only ok against the Cardinals last week. I know low scoring games aren’t usually that entertaining, but this is one I am very excited about. The Eagles will probably squeak this one out, but I don’t think they’ll cover the spread.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Bucs -9.5, 2 points @10/11

ABTS. Anyone but the Steelers.

Carolina Panthers @ LA Rams: Panthers +10.5, 2 points @10/11

This is another crazy line. I know the Panthers fired Matt Rhule during the week and Baker Mayfield is out for a couple of weeks, but both of those are good things! Rhule’s leadership of the team just hasn’t worked, and Mayfield has the lowest quarterback rating in the league. PJ Walker will step up in Mayfield’s place and is 2-0 as a starter. Their defence is also playing at a decent level. The only area where they are susceptible is in the run and the Rams truly suck at pounding the rock. The Rams are currently struggling in all facets of the offensive game and it doesn’t get any easier this week.

Remaining Week 6 Picks (No bets, just the record):

Baltimore Ravens @ NY Giants: Ravens -5.5

I think I’m going to have to roll with the Ravens on this one. The Giants had their most impressive win of the season, last week against the Packers, but I’m still going to hang with Lamar and his crew. The Giants are 4-1, 2-1 at home, but have beaten teams that are susceptible to the run. Green Bay, Chicago and Carolina are all bottom half run defences, and Barkley has feasted against them. The Ravens have a top 12 run defence and will likely put up a much tougher fight. If Big Blue have to bring in the pass game a little more, I would be slightly worried. Brian Daboll is one of the best head coaches out there, but Saquon is their offence, and if the Ravens can take him somewhat out of the game, they should get the job done.

For the Ravens, Lamar did not have a good game last week against the Bengals. He had 58 yards rushing on the ground, but only 174 yards through the air. The Giants have been strong overall defensively this year, ranking 12^th in terms of yards allowed, but have been poor against the run, ranking 25^th. Lamar and JK Dobbins should have some nice success on the ground, and with the Giants travelling back from London earlier in the week, I think the Ravens just about cover the 5.5 spread.

Minnesota Vikings @ Miami Dolphins: Vikings -3

This selection is heavily based on Teddy Bridgewater and Tua both being at limited fitness. Tua is definitely out, but Teddy B is listed as questionable. He is in concussion protocol but doesn’t have a concussion. Skylar Thompson was ok last against the Jets, until the Dolphins 4^th quarter meltdown where they conceded 21 in the final quarter and lost 40-17. The Dolphins should put up a bit more than 17 this week, but the Vikings can be explosive on offence and are facing a Dolphins D that has struggled this year. The Dolphins are currently 29^th in terms of points allowed. They are 28^th in terms of passing yards allowed, Xavien Howard is back for tomorrow’s game, but no matter who is on him, Justin Jefferson is tough to stop. Also, last week, Breece Hall cut them to shreds and you could see Dalvin Cook doing the same here. The Vikings are obviously streaky and could go to sleep at the moment, as they showed last week against the Bears, but they should get past the Dolphins here.

NE Patriots @ Cleveland Browns: Patriots +2.5

Last week’s performance against the Lions has to be up there with one of the most impressive performances of the session. The Patriots D held the top scoring offence to nil. Not a single point. Big ole Billy is rounding into form at the usual point of the season. They are managing some injuries at the moment, as Mac Jones and Damien Harris are currently questionable, but have very worthy back-ups who are filling in. Bailey Zappe has managed his games well and Rhamondre Stevenson is a guy. Stevenson rushed the ball for 161 yards last week and added another 14 yards in the receiving game. The Browns had an opportunity to beat the Chargers last week, but LA are struggling at the moment. Nick Chubb is currently the #1 back in the league but if there is anyone that can scheme up a defence to stop Chubb and Hunt, it’s Belichick and his crew. They also know Jacoby Brissett fairly well, so should have some success in stopping Cleveland’s passing game. To make matters worse, the Browns are without Greedy Williams, Jadeveon Clowney, Denzel Ward and Joe Haeg.

NY Jets @ Green Bay Packers: No selection.

I can’t seem to get a Jets game right, so will have to leave them out this week.

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks: +3.5 (can get 4/6 in places)

No great feeling on this game and it’s hard to see which way its going to go. The Cardinals have lost every single game at home but won every game away. They have beaten the Panthers and the Raiders so far. 2-3 isn’t the worst record, but they should not have beaten Las Vegas, as the home team threw away a massive lead to then lose in overtime. They could easily be 1-4 and now face a spicy Seahawks team, who can put up some points. Unfortunately for Seattle, they are at sixes and sevens on the defensive side of the ball. They are 32^nd in terms of yards allowed and 31^st in terms of points allowed. They are conceding most of the yards on the ground, which isn’t the worst thing when facing a Cardinals rushing offence who are middle of the pack. I’m riding with the home team here, with the added points as a bonus. The Cardinals are also without James Connor, Matt Prater, Trayvon Mullen and possibly more. In a game that could be close, missing those key players is not ideal.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs: Chiefs +3

These two juggernauts faced off twice in 2021, with the record standing at 1-1. The Bills beat the chiefs 38-20 in Arrowhead, during the regular season, but Kansas City took home the W in the one that mattered. The Chiefs won one of the most amazing games of football, 42-36 in the AFC Divisional Round. This is without a doubt one of the most exciting matchups in football, with two of the very best QBs going at it.

Looking back on last year’s games first, the Bills won in Arrowhead during the regular season. Mahomes had an un-Mahomes like performance, logging two INTs to go along with two TD passes, one to Kelce and the other to Byron Pringle. Josh Allen was flawless, throwing three TDs and no INTs. Dawson Knox had a monster game, recording 117 receiving yards and one TD. Allen won the battle between the QBs, along with the total yards from play and yards per play. But Kansas had more total plays, more first downs and more time of possession. This leans towards the theory that the Chiefs had an off night, which is validated by Mahomes two INTs. When both performed in similar manners, the Chiefs came out on top. Obviously that match could have gone either way, but the Chiefs generally seem to find a way.

Looking forward to this year’s performances, both teams are 4-1 and flying. They are both, statistically, top tier offences, but the Bills are the more impressive defence. I would, however, question the passing attacks they have faced. The Steelers suck so bad and the game before that, they faced the Ravens in the rain. The Rams and Stafford have been a disaster and Tannehill is prone to bad games. The one good passing offence (Miami) they faced, they lost to. The Chiefs are 2-0 at home and have the added points spread. They are therefore my pick in this exciting primetime showdown.

Denver Broncos @ LA Chargers: TBC

Review coming Monday.

Player Prop Bets & Acca:

One point on each selection and half point on the acca.