NAP RECORD: 0-4.
OVERALL RECORD: 33-30-1.
UPDATED TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: -15.51 points.
WEEK 5 TNT RECORD: 2-1.
WEEK 5 TNF PROFIT/LOSS: +0.53 points.
PROFIT. Finally, TNF delivered. Lol. How cold have those last few weeks been, eh? Looking ahead to the remainder of week five, we have some nice-looking games in the early window. It’ll be more impressive if I can get the NAP to go 0-18 than 18-0… but once again, I like what I have on the board today. Cowboys on the spread are the NAP this week.
All Week 5 Picks:
NY Giants @ Green Bay Packers: Giants +8, 1 point @10/11
The second London game of the year sees the Giants take on the Packers is Spurs’ swanky stadium. The line here is eight points, which is a bit mad, considering the Packers could have lost last week to the Bailey Zappe led Patriots. The Patriots put up 24 points last week and lost in OT. Not exactly what you want to be seeing if you’re a Packers fan. Or someone who picked them as their NAP…. But to be fair to the Packers, they have won their last three, they just aren’t doing it in much style. Rodgers is still building a connection with his new receivers and some of them are still making inexcusable drops. Big Blue have been tidy defensively this year, featuring in the top ten of points allowed, so Rodgers and the offence will have to get real hot to cover the spread. For the Giants, Saquon has been their heartbeat, leading the majority of the leagues rushing statistics. They are 3-1 for the first time since 2011 and head to London on the back of a 262-yard rushing game. The Packers are bottom half in terms of run D, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Barkley put up another big game. The Giants are currently 2-0 in London. Can they do it again? I don’t think so, but they could keep it closer than you think.
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Falcons +9.5, 1 point @ 10/11
Tom Brady is 8-0 against the Falcons and the Bucs have won their last two games against their divisional rivals by an average of 18 points. But Tom Brady has never gone through rumoured divorce proceedings the week before a game. Brady is currently paving the way to play football until he’s at least fifty, but I think that might distract him a little this week and allow the Falcons to keep this game closer than it should be. The Falcons are 4-0 against the spread this year, but are nursing some injuries, as Kyle Pitts and Cordarelle Patterson are out with respective injuries. Big losses but I wouldn’t worry too much about Pitts and Patterson has a very capable back up in the form of Tyler Allgeier. The Bucs are definitely healthier this week, but still managing some knocks. This looks like a classic Bucs up 14 ish with a couple minutes left, with Atlanta snagging a late TD to keep it within the 9.5.
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings: Vikings -7.5, 1.5 points @ 10/11
Justin Fields and the Bears are so bad. Fields has thrown for 471 yards, 2 TDs and 4 INTs. For context, Justin Herbert has thrown for 1250 yards, 9 TDs and 2 INTs. The Bears offence is averaging 16.0 points per game and as a team are currently 0-2 away from home. Their 8-point defeat last week to the Giants is made even worse by the fact that both Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor went off with injuries. Saquon had to take snaps in the wild cat. The Bears did pound that rock well, but it’s more out of necessity that desire. Besides their wild win against the 49ers, in the lashing rain, they have only beat the Texans, who their run game works really well against. The Vikings are 3-1 and 2-0 at home. Once Cousins isn’t playing in primetime, he is a top ten QB. I would fully expect them to win this by double digits, just like they did in their last home match-up against the Bears.
Detroit Lions @ New England Patriots: Lions +3, 0.5 point @10/11
Both teams lost by narrow margins last week. Detroit and Seattle slugged it out in wild 48-45 showdown and the Patriots narrowly lost to the Packers in OT. The Lions have lost three games by a combined total of 10 points, which must be brutal to take for a team with high(er) expectations going into the season. The number one scoring offence will definitely be without DeAndre Swift, DJ Chark, amongst others. Amon Ra St. Brown is still listed as questionable and will be a game time decision. The Patriots are dealing with injuries of their own, as Mac Jones and Brian Hoyer are likely be out as well. Jonnu Smith is also out and Jakobi Meyers is currently questionable. This could be another close game, so I am going to roll with the offensive powerhouse and the extra points.
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars: Jaguars -6.5, 1 point @ 10/11
This should be plain sailing for the Jags on Sunday night. The Jags have an elite defence and will pile the pressure on Mills. If Mills and the offence try to lean on the run game, which they likely will because of Dameon Pierce’s recent success, they will be met by a brick wall. The Jags are currently allowing a measly 93.8 yards rushing per game, which is good for 7th in the league. They are just about top half in the defensive receiving category, so look primed to put up a good showing against the Texans offence that is currently 26th in terms of points scored. For the Jags offence, they will meet a decent pass defence, but will be facing a wet paper bag in terms of rushing defence. The Texans are currently conceding 183.3 yards rushing per game, which is good enough for 31st in league rankings. If the Jags can dominant the clock with the run game and Lawrence can pick his spots where necessary, their defence should then see them out to cover the spread.
LA Chargers @ Cleveland Browns: Browns +2.5, 1 point @ 10/11
Austin Ekeler went crazy against the Texans last week, logging three total touchdowns, as the Chargers beat Houston 34-24. LA may have gone up big at the half, but they let Houston slip back into it and to come within one score in the final quarter. LA dominated for most of the match against Houston’s weak run D, allowing Ekeler put up over 100 total yards, as the Chargers got an all-important win, considering all the injuries they have. But it will not be as easy this week. The Browns are a top tier defence and with Myles Garrett back in the starting line-up, a much bigger threat to Justin Herbert getting a little dirty. The Chargers are also still leaking yards in the run game and now face the best running back duo in the game. Mix that with the fact that they are travelling west to east coast for an early game, and I think they’ll have their work cut out. Keenan Allen, Joey Bosa and Rashawn Slater also being out doesn’t help. Browns on the handicap, but like the Cowboys, I think they could win it outright.
Miami Dolphins @ NY Jets: Dolphins -3.5, 1 point @ 10/11
I think the Dolphins are going to manage just fine without Tua. Teddy Two Gloves Bridgewater is one of the most capable back-ups in the league, and with the supporting cast around him, should move the ball just fine. Tua is obviously still out, and hopefully for a while, so Teddy comes in to face their AFC East rivals, who are coming off a big win against Pittsburgh. But the Steelers suck, and the Dolphins will not let Zach Wilson march down the field and slot 6/6 passes and a tuddie, to win the game, like the Steelers did. The Dolphins are 3-1 and have beaten the Ravens, Bills and Patriots. The Jets got lucky against the Browns and Steelers. Dolphins talking home the W by at least a TD.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills: Bills -13.5, 1 point @ 4/5
ABTS. Anyone but the Steelers.
Seahawks @ NO Saints: No Bet
Staying away from this game.
Tennessee Titans @ Washington Commanders: Over 43.0, 1 point @10/11
Tricky one to call, in terms of who will win, but I like the over here. The Commanders have scored 10 and 8, respectively, in their last two games, but they were against elite defences (Cowboys & Eagles). In their first two games, they put up 27 and 22, respectively. The Titans defence has been conceding 25.3 points per game, on average. Their pass rush isn’t the greatest, so Wentz should have some time to throw, and when he does, he can actually do some good things. For the Titans, Derrick Henry is back to himself, which will make Tannehill’s day a lot easier. The Commanders have been conceding 26.8 points per game, so this low over should be hit with some relative ease.
49ers @ Carolina Panthers: 49ers -6.5, 1 point @ 10/11
6.5 is a big spread for an away team that is only 2-2 and 0-2 away from home, but I like the 49ers to cover here against a Panthers team that is really struggling. The Panthers are dead last in terms of offensive yards and Baker Mayfield hasn’t thrown more than one touchdown in a game. Baker is dead last in terms of QBR, and the fans are leaving him know it. McCaffrey has been good, but it’s really only been him putting up respectable numbers. Unfortunately, he now faces a defence that is number one in terms of total yards allowed and second in terms of rushing yards allowed. If the Niners can shut down McCaffrey, they will likely halt Carolina moving forward. In terms of Carolina’s defence, they are 11th in terms of passing yards allowed, but bottom third in terms of rushing yards allowed, which is not good when you are facing a 49ers team built on the run. The Niners are also streets ahead in the coaching department, so I expect Kyle Shanahan to get one over on Matt Rhule in this NFC showdown.
Dallas Cowboys @ LA Rams: Cowboys +5.5, 1 point @ 10/11 (NAP)
Even though the Rams are at home, I am slightly surprised by this spread. The Rams have been very hot and cold this year, particularly against elite defences. Stafford has really struggled when he faces elite fronts, throwing 3 picks against the Bills in week one, and one pick and no TDs against the 49ers last week. The loss of OBJ is being felt and now they face another elite pass rush and defence and have to cover a 5.5 spread. The Cowboys have been solid offensively with Cooper Rush, so if they can continue utilising the run game and use their defence to hang around, I think they’ll cover the spread and could even push LA for the win.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Arizona Cardinals: Eagles -5, 1 point @ 10/11
The Eagles mannnnn, they are a serious force to be reckoned with. Dominant performances against Washington and Minnesota were backed up by a determined and gritty performance last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Down 14 after the first quarter, Hurts and the running game brought Philly back to life, as they dominated the second quarter, 20-0. In general, they are a top five offence and a top five defence, and now look towards a Cardinals team that have struggled at home this year. Arizona have lost both their home games (Rams & Chiefs) and are leaking points against good offences. They are 28th in terms of points allowed and now face an Eagles offence that is ranked 4th in terms of points scored. Both teams are nursing some injuries, but Philly are as deep as they come, so should get the W here by at least a touchdown.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens: Over 48, 1 point @ 10/11
I think this bet slaps, so no doubt it’s going to lose. But, got to stick with my gut, the stats and past performances. Last year, the Bengals went 2-0 against the Ravens as Joe Burrow put up 941 yards passing across the two games. That’s a single season NFL record. It could be something similar this year as well, as the Ravens are dead last in terms of passing yards allowed. The Bengals have been good defensively so far in 2022, but they haven’t faced Lamar yet. Both games last year eclipsed 58 points or more, so I feel confident going with over 48 in this primetime showdown.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs: TBC
TBC.
Underdog Money-Line Double, 1 point @ 4.9/1
Browns & Cowboys.
€5 to €250 Challenge:
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