NAP RECORD: 0-3.
OVERALL RECORD: 26-24-1.
UPDATED TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: -14.97 points.
WEEK 4 TNF RECORD: 2-2.
WEEK 4 TNT PROFIT/LOSS: -0.38 points.
I have put more work into this week’s study, than other week before. I hope to Christ it pays off. Lol.
NAP
NE Patriots @ Green Bay Packers: Packers -9.5, 2 points @10/11
Patriots:
2022 Record: 1-2 (1-1 away).
Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 364.7 (10th) // Passing – 249.0 (12th) // Rushing – 115.7 (13th).
Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 314.7 (10th) // Passing – 200.0 (8th) // Rushing – 114.7 (20th).
Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 16.7 (25th) // PPG Allowed – 23.7 (22nd).
Turnover Differential: -4 (29th).
Injury Report: Yodny Cajuste – OT, Mac Jones – QB, Lawrence Guy – DE.
Packers:
2022 Record: 2-1 (1-0 home).
Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 355.7 (13th) // Passing – 228.7 (19th) // Rushing – 127.0 (9th).
Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 302.7 (6th) // Passing – 189.3 (7th) // Rushing – 113.3 (19th).
Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 16.0 (27th) // PPG Allowed – 15.0 (6th).
Turnover Differential: -2 (25th).
Injury Report: Caleb Jones – OT. Jaire Alexander was limited in practice on Friday as well. He will be a game time decision.
There isn’t really much to say on this one. Mac Jones is out, and Brian Hoyer is in as starting QB for the Patriots. Hoyer is currently on an 11-game losing streak as a starter and I think it could be 12 after this Sunday’s clash with the Packers. The Patriots travel to Lambeau Field for one of the later games, in what is only Rodger’s third matchup against a Bill Belichick coached team.
The Patriots did move the ball well against the Ravens last week, but the Ravens secondary is a hot mess, in terms of yards allowed. Their overall defence is one of the worst in the league, hence the Patriots putting up 26 points in their home loss. But the Patriots still lost by 11, at home, with Jones under centre. This is an away game with Hoyer at QB, facing a good Packers D.
For the Packers, they got a massive win away to the Bucs. It was the first time Rodgers had beaten Brady in a Bucs uniform. A-Rod was rock solid as well, throwing for 2 TDs and no picks. The offence has a good opportunity to continue heating up this week and I love them to complement their strong defence and cover the -9.5 spread.
NY Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Steelers win & under 49.5, 2 points @ 11/10
Jets:
2022 Record: 1-2 (1-0 away).
Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 370.0 (9th) // Passing – 286.0 (5th) // Rushing – 84.0 (26th).
Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 336.3 (15th) // Passing – 231.0 (15th) // Rushing – 105.3 (15th).
Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 17.3 (21st) // PPG Allowed – 27.0 (27th).
Turnover Differential: -4 (30th).
Injury Report: George Fant – OT, Meckhi Becton – OT, Quincy Williams – LB.
Steelers:
2022 Record: 1-2 (0-1 home).
Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 272.7 (31st) // Passing – 182.7 (28th) // Rushing – 90.0 (22nd).
Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 394.7 (24th) // Passing – 252.0 (22nd) // Rushing – 142.7 (28th).
Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 18.0 (19th) // PPG Allowed – 22.0 (17th).
Turnover Differential: +3 (5th).
Injury Report: TJ Watt – LB.
There is a bit of value to be had here with the Steelers, but I certainly won’t be watching this bin bowl of a match. Two 1-2 teams who could easily be 0-3, slogging it out on Sunday evening doesn’t really get my juices flowing. But I like the Steelers here all the same. Key reasons being.
- Zach Wilson’s first game back from injury and he has to face the Steelers, away from home. Not ideal for a young QB with little playing experience.
- The high yardage totals the Jets have been putting up will likely reduce, now that Flacco is out. Flacco had a nice connection with WR Garrett Wilson and TE Tyler Conklin.
- While the Jets have been moving the ball ok, they are only 21st in points scored.
- The Jets are 27th in points allowed and have a terrible turnover differential. The Steelers are turnover machines and should manage a couple against Zach Wilson.
- Mike Tomlin is feeling the heat and I think he’ll step it up here. Game plan focused around Najee, control the clock and get the receivers involved where possible. The Jets secondary got carved up by Burrow last week, so it’s an opportunity for Trubisky to steady the ship. He’s no Burrow, but he has some studs around him to help him get right.
- The Steelers were 1/9 on third downs last week. They can’t go that bad again.
Steelers to win on the money-line and the total to be under 49.5 looks to be the shout. This will be a tight, ugly sort of game, but the Steelers will prevail.
All Week 4 Picks:
Minnesota Vikings @ NO Saints: Vikings -2.5, 1 point @ 4/6
This the first London game of the year and might throw up a bit of a curve ball, but I’ll have to ride with the favourites in this one and take the Vikings -2.5. Cousins was back to himself last week against the Lions, throwing for 260 yards and 2 TDs. Adam Thielen and KJ Osborn were hot and if Jefferson can get back closer to his week one form, they should put up decent numbers on offence. The Saints are also dealing with massive injuries. Jameis Winston, Michael Thomas and Marcus Maye are all out.
Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens: Over 51, 1 point @ 10/11
Have to ride with the over on this one. I know I did that last week for the Bills/Dolphins, but in the end, that game turned out to be an anomaly. The Bills ran over 90 offensive plays and somehow only put up 19 points. Good news for them is that the Ravens D is one of the worst in the league. They gave up 321 yards to Mac Jones last week, so Josh Allen should have no problem cutting them open. The Bills are still really banged up on defence, so MVP level Lamar Jackson should do his thing as well. I would be shocked if the over doesn’t hit. But I have been wrong many many many times before.
On a side note, Josh Allen’s passing over is 286.5 yards. Definitely worth a punt.
Chicago Bears @ NY Giants: No Bet.
No bet on the game here, but a Saquon over rushing yards will be going into the €5 to €250.
Cleveland Browns @ Atlanta Falcons: Falcons +1.5, 1.5 points @ 10/11
The Browns are so beat up. Myles Garrett was in a car crash during the week, and while he still has a chance to play, his injuries include shoulder and biceps sprains and some lacerations. Jadeveon Clowney and DT Taven Bryan look set to be out as well, alongside LB Anthony Walker who was put on injury reserve during the week. They are decimated on defence and with a frisky Atlanta team now at home, I like them to get the win here. The added 1.5 points are a bonus.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles: No Bet.
Sit back and enjoy this one. I would love to call the Eagles, but the spread is just too much at 6.5.
LA Chargers @ Houston Texans: Under 45.5, 1 point @ 10/11
The Texan’s defence is sneaky good and with Chargers’ star tackle Rashawn Slater on injury reserve, the Texans should have a good path to Justin Herbert. They got to Justin Fields for five sacks and nine QB hits in week three, intercepting him twice as well. Herbert and Co. got blown out by the Jags, putting up only ten points in the process. They will likely put up more here, but with Keenan Allen still out and the Texans’ CBs and D-Line playing well, it could be a tight, low scoring affair. Mills has also been poor this year, which doesn’t add to the chances of this being an exciting, high-scoring game.
NY Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Steelers win & under 49.5, 2 points @ 11/10
Full review above.
Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions: Lions -3, 0.5 point @ 5/6
The Lions will be without DeAndre Swift, Amon Ra St. Brown, Austin Seibert (kicker), Jonah Jackson and possibly DJ Chark, and they’ll still win this game. The Seahawks are one of the worst defences in the league and are away from home. They are getting eaten up in the run game and Jamaal Williams should fill in very well for ole Swifty boy. It is a major concern that so many of Detroit players are out, but they are the better team overall. Not really that confident though, so just a cheeky 0.5 point. Lol.
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts: Titans +3.5, 1 point @ 10/11
The Titans have won the last three matchups between these two teams. They both got much needed wins last week and come into this game with a nice little confidence boost. The Colts somehow beat the Chiefs, but some might say that the Chiefs beat themselves, as their offence failed to get off the ground. Matt Ryan was much better, as he logged 2 TDs and no INTs, but Jonathan Taylor continues his sluggish start to the year. For the Titans, they almost threw away their game against the Raiders. They were 24-7 up at half time but failed to register a single point in the second half. Their defence did keep Davante Adams to 36 total yards but let Mack Hollins eat for 158 yards and a TD. On a positive note, Derrick Henry looked back to his best, logging 143 all purpose yards and one TD. This will be a close one, but I like the Titans +3.5 here.
Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys: Cowboys -2.5, 1 point @ 4/6
Carson Wentz is going to be seeing ghosts after this game. Wentz was sacked nine times by the Eagles last week and now he faces the 2022 sack leaders, the Cowboys. The Cowboys are currently leading the NFL with 13 sacks, as Parsons and Lawrence have been tearing up offensive lines all year. On their offensive side of the ball, Cooper Rush has been doing well on offence, in what could be called a surprising couple of outings.
Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers: Cardinals ML, 1 point @10/11
This is a really important game for both teams. The Cardinals got beat by the Rams last week and need to show that they can beat a struggling Panthers team. The Panthers did beat the Saints at home, but Michael Thomas went off injured and Winston threw multiple picks, in his standard fashion. CMC was good again and will have a chance here to put up another +100-yard game, but I’m not sure that will be enough to get Carolina over the line. The Cardinals kept Cooper Kupp to 44 yards last week, which doesn’t sound good for any Baker Mayfield fans this week. Looking back on the Cardinals offensive performance last week, Marquise Brown and Kyler were very aligned, as the wideout went for 140 yards against Ramsey and the Rams secondary. If Kyler can continue finding his guy and get the rest of his receiving crew involved, they should just about pip this one.
Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders: No Bet.
Staying away from this game. Both teams have been bad but might get hot at any moment. Fun fact about the Broncos though, they have the worst red zone offence and the best red zone defence.
NE Patriots @ Green Bay Packers: Packers -9.5, 2 points @ 10/11
Full review above.
KC Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Review coming tomorrow.
LA Rams @ San Francisco 49ers:
Will come back to this one on Monday. Awaiting some late injury designations.
€5 to €250 Challenge:
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