NAP RECORD: 0-2.
OVERALL RECORD: 19-15.
UPDATED PROFIT/LOSS: -12.19 points.
My god, the Steelers suck. Roll on the rest of week three.
Week two left a trail of destruction, but I’m feeling the picks this week. The grind has been real on this one.
NAP
Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts: Chiefs -5.5, 2 Points @ 10/11.
Chiefs:
2022 Record: 2-0 (1-0 away).
Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 403.5 (5th) // Passing – 293.0 (6th) // Rushing – 110.5 (16th).
Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 341.5 (19th) // Passing – 252.5 (23rd) // Rushing – 89.0 (11th).
Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 35.5 (3rd) // PPG Allowed – 22.5 (18th).
Turnover Differential: 0 (17th).
Injury Report: Willie Gay – LB (suspension).
Colts:
2022 Record: 0-1-1 (0-0 home).
Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 367.5 (13th) // Passing – 252.0 (10th) // Rushing – 115.5 (12th).
Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 315.0 (11th) // Passing – 228.5 (15th) // Rushing – 86.5 (10th).
Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 10.0 (32nd) // PPG Allowed – 22.0 (16th).
Turnover Differential: -4 (32nd).
Injury Report: No one is down as out yet, but Yannick Ngakoue, Alec Pierce, Shaq (Darius) Leonard and Michael Pittman are all questionable.
The Colts just lost to the Jaguars by 24 points and didn’t put up a single point in the process. The Chiefs have put up 27 and 44 points respectively in their first two games, winning by a combined total of 26 points and they are somehow only under a touchdown favourites. An unconverted touchdown at that.
The Colts have real injury concern in their WR room as Pittman and Pierce are still on the injury report and are questionable for Sunday’s game. Just pound the rock with Jonathan Taylor you say. Taylor was held to 54 yards on 9 attempts on Sunday night, as the Colts abandoned the run as they tried to claw their way out of the massive deficit. The same could happen here if the Chiefs get off to a hot start. The Chiefs also didn’t allow a run over 10 yards on Thursday night against the Chargers. So, if they want to get Taylor into the game, they may not see the success they want.
The Chiefs are an offensive juggernaut, and the Colts are in a deep spiral. It’s hard to see the Colts keeping this within the projected handicap.
Baltimore Ravens @ NE Patriots: Ravens -3, 1 point 10/11
Ravens:
2022 Record: 1-1 (1-0 away).
Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 373.5 (12th) // Passing – 264.5 (9th) // Rushing – 109.9 (18th).
Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 463.5 (32nd) // Passing – 379.0 (32nd) // Rushing – 84.5 (8th).
Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 31.0 (6th) // PPG Allowed – 25.5 (24th).
Turnover Differential: +3 (6th).
Injury Report: Plenty questionable but all look good to play.
Patriots:
2022 Record: 1-1 (0-0 home).
Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 323.5 (22nd) // Passing – 222.5 (17th) // Rushing – 101.0 (19th).
Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 275.0 (4th) // Passing – 197.0 (9th) // Rushing – 78.0 (5th).
Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 12.0 (29th) // PPG Allowed – 17.0 (8th).
Turnover Differential: -2 (24th).
Injury Report: Kyle Dugger – S, Jakobi Meyers – WR did not participate in practice Thursday.
The Ravens are coming off a shock loss to the Dolphins last Sunday night. The Patriots are coming off a strong defensive performance against the Steelers. Even with last week’s results, I really fancy Baltimore in this showdown. The Ravens were 35-14 up in the fourth last Sunday, but then got swiftly dismantled by the high-powered Miami offence. The Ravens have been bad defensively this year, but the Patriots do not have the capabilities to overpower the Ravens D like Miami did.
On the offensive side of the ball for Baltimore, Lamar was unconscious last week and is playing at the peak of his powers. JK Dobbins is also looking good to return, which is a massive boost. Devin Duverney and Rashod Bateman are starting to breakout, and Mark Andrews is Baltimore’s Travis Kelce. They have the fire power to put this game out of sight, as long as the D can hold up their end of the bargain.
The Patriots win last week looked good at the time, but now looks a little stale. The Steelers are woefully bad and are not a good barometer for a quality team. The Patriots have had their own struggles and while they are at home, the three-point handicap doesn’t seem like it will be enough.
Lamar will be out to avenge last week’s loss, so I am riding with the Florida boy in this AFC showdown.
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins: Over 53, 1 point @ 10/11
Bills:
2022 Record: 2-0 (1-0 away).
Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 413.5 (3rd) // Passing – 302.5 (4th) // Rushing – 111.0 (14th).
Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 215.0 (2nd) // Passing – 149.0 (2nd) // Rushing – 66.0 (1st).
Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 36.0 (1st) // PPG Allowed – 8.5 (2nd).
Turnover Differential: +3 (3rd).
Injury Report: Micah Hyde – S, Ed Oliver Tackle – DT, Jordan Phillips – DE, Dane Jackson – CB.
Miami:
2022 Record: 2-0 (1-0 home).
Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 427.0 (2nd) // Passing – 351.5 (1st) // Rushing – 75.5 (28th).
Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 372.0 (21st) // Passing – 255.5 (25th) // Rushing – 116.5 (17th).
Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 31.0 (4th) // PPG Allowed – 22.5 (19th).
Turnover Differential: +1 (13th).
Injury Report: Byron Jones – CB. Terron Armstead and Xavien Howard are questionable.
The Bills looks unstoppable. They have won their first two games by a combined 55 points. Josh Allen is in full god mode, and he only has two games under his belt. He has thrown for 7 TDS and 614 yards already, to go along with 66 yards and one TD rushing. Diggs has been the biggest beneficiary of Allen’s elite playmaking, logging three TDs against Tennessee and one against LA. The other offensive chess pieces like Gabe Davis, Dawson Knox and the RB room are pulling their weight as well. They are in offensive juggernaut mode, and it looks unlikely they will be slowed down any time soon.
Miami obviously put up big numbers last week, but that was against a week Baltimore pass rush and secondary. The Bills are a different story when fully healthy. Good news for Miami is, they aren’t. Tre White, Dane Jackson and Micah Hyde are all out. That’s three quarters of the Bills starting secondary out of action. Not what you want when you’re going up against the Penguin and the Cheetah.
The Miami secondary is banged up as well, with Byron Jones out and Howard questionable. You can tell that they are beat up as well as they are currently 25th against the pass in their first two games. Josh Allen is licking his lips.
The Bills beat Miami 35-0 in Hard Rock Stadium last year. The Bills could put up that number again, but Miami will put up some good numbers too. If the Bills were fully healthy in their secondary, I would be smashing their handicap all day. In this case, I think the over is the safer bet.
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings : Lions +6, 1.5 Point @10/11
Lions:
2022 Record: 1-1 (0-0 away).
Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 405.5 (4th) // Passing – 219.5 (19th) // Rushing – 186.0 (3rd).
Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 425.5 (30th) // Passing – 273.5 (28th) // Rushing – 152.0 (26th).
Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 35.5 (2nd) // PPG Allowed – 32.5 (31st).
Turnover Differential: 0 (16th).
Injury Report (Out): John Cominsky – DE, Jonah Jackson – G.
Vikings:
2022 Record: 1-1 (1-0 home).
Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 329.5 (20th) // Passing – 235.5 (13th) // Rushing – 94.0 (21st).
Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 412.0 (29th) // Passing – 275.0 (30th) // Rushing – 137.0 (23rd).
Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 15.0 (25th) // PPG Allowed – 15.5 (6th).
Turnover Differential: 0 (18th).
Injury Report (Out): Harrison Smith – S, Andrew Booth Jr. – CB.
The Lions are rolling offensively. Goff threw four TDs against Washington and looks to have found a guy in Amon Ra St. Brown. The pair connected for 116 yards and 2 TDs last week and the wideout even added 68 yards rushing on the ground. St. Brown’s rushing ability adds another layer of threat to an already dangerous rushing game that is ranked 3rd in terms of yards. Swift and Williams are pounding that rock like the best of them, and should have no problem this week against the 23rd ranked Vikings rushing D. The Lions were up 22-0 after the first half last week against the Commanders, but unfortunately their D let them back into it.
The Vikings will obviously look to exploit those defensive holes. Cousins was abysmal in Monday night football against the Eagles. But that’s just Cousin under primetime lights and he should bounce back this week against a defence that is 30th in terms of yards allowed and 31st in terms of points allowed. In terms of injuries on the Vikings defence, it’s not good news. Pro Bowl S, Harrison Smith is out for tomorrow’s game, along with CB Andrew Booth Jr.
The Lions covered the spread in both games last year and they will do the same again here. I wouldn’t be surprised if they went on to win.
All Week 2 Picks:
Baltimore Ravens @ NE Patriots: Ravens -3, 1 point 10/11
Full review above.
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins: Bills -5.5, 1 point @10/11
Full review above.
Cincinnati Bengals @ NY Jets: Jets +7.5, 1 point @ 4/6
The Jets are good defensively up front. They also won this matchup 34-30 last year. So, with a few points on the spread this year and at home in New York, I think they are the pick.
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings: Lions +6, 1.5 points @10/11
Full review above.
Houston Texans @ Chicago Bears: Texans +2.5, 0.5 point @10/11
No great feeling on this one, but I’ll ride with my Texans for the love of the game.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts: Chiefs -5.5, 2 points @ 10/11
Full review above.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Tennessee Titans: No Bet.
Don’t see any value at all here.
NO Saints @ Carolina Panthers: Panthers +2.5
If Jameis Winston plays here, he will be doing so with multiple fractures in his back. Kamara is also questionable and could miss this week’s game. I really don’t want to have to do this, but I am going to ride with the Panthers. If the Saints are without Kamara, their run game won’t be the same, and that’s where you can get after Carolina. They are 29th in terms of rushing defence, but third in terms of passing defence. This should slow the Saints offence to a halt, and if Baker can keep himself clean and get CMC into the game, they should win. The added 2.5 points is a bonus.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders: Eagles -6.5, 1 point @ 10/11
For a team that is a real Super Bowl challenger, to only be a touchdown favourite, against a streaky divisional rival, has me all over it. Wentz is facing his old team here and I don’t see it going well for him. The Eagles D kept the Vikings offence to 7 points and they should at least cover the spread here.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ LA Chargers: Under 42.5, 1 point @ 10/11
The Chargers are currently 3-point favourites, which is signalling that Herbert is likely to miss the game. Back-up Chase Daniels has also been seen taking first team reps with the offence in practice. With Herbert out, it should be a close game with two top tier defences going at it.
Atlanta Falcons @ Seattle Seahawks: No Bet.
Don’t see any value at all here.
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bucs -1, 1 point @ 10/11
Rodgers hasn’t beaten Brady in a Bucs uniform yet. This will be tight, but I see the goat squeezing this one out at home.
LA Rams @ Arizona Cardinals: Rams -3.5, 1 point @10/11
This is a tough one to call. The Raiders should have put the Cardinals away last week when they were up 23-7 at the half. Kyler did Kyler things to get them back into it, but the Rams D won’t let him away as easy this week. The Rams won this matchup in State Farm Stadium last year 30-23. Aaron Donald had a monster game with three sacks, and because he had a poor game last week against the Falcons, he’ll look to bounce back heavy against the Cards this week. The Rams are the better, healthier team and I’ll ride with them for this NFC west showdown.
San Francisco 49ers @ Denver Broncos: 49ers ML, 1 point @ 4/5
At this moment in time, the 49ers are the better team. I actually prefer Jimmy G in this one instead of Lance, and with the defence playing at a top three level, I am very happy to take the 49ers straight up here.
Dallas Cowboys @ NY Giants: Under 39 points, 1 point @ 10/11
Micah Parsons will dominate this primetime game and shut down the Giants offence. Cooper Rush struggles to get things moving for Dallas while this game turns ugly.
€5 to €250 Challenge:
The 100/1 shot is living up to its name. Taking it down to a 50/1ish punt this week. Please football gods, let us have this one!
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