NAP RECORD: 0-1.
OVERALL RECORD: 13-6.
***UPDATED PROFIT/LOSS: -1.74 points.
Profit was made on Thursday, but I actually said no bets in the title of the shorter previews for week one, so I will have to cancel all of that profit. Aint no tricks around here..
2021 SEASON RECORD: 104-104.
Week two, baby. LFG.
New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Steelers +2.5 (NAP), 2 points @ 10/11
** All stats are now 2022 based.
Patriots:
2022 Record: 0-1 (0-1 away).
Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 271.0 (26th) // Passing – 193.0 (23rd) // Rushing – 78.0 (23rd).
Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 307.0 (10th) // Passing – 242.0 (20th) // Rushing – 65.0 (4th).
Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 7.0 (31st) // PPG Allowed – 20.0 (12th).
Turnover Differential: -3 (31st).
Injury Report (Out): Ty Montgomery – WR.
Steelers:
2022 Record: 1-0 (0-0 home).
Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 267.0 (27th) // Passing – 192.0 (24th) // Rushing – 75.0 (26th).
Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 432.0 (28th) // Passing – 299.0 (28th) // Rushing – 133.0 (23rd).
Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 23.0 (13th) // PPG Allowed – 20.0 (14th).
Turnover Differential: +5 (1st).
Injury Report (Out): TJ Watt – LB.
This seems to be a classic case of looks too good to be true. The Patriots got whooped last week and are now -2.5 favourites against a Steelers team that just beat the Bengals. And they are away from home this week?! Am I missing something here? The Patriots were bad against the Dolphins. Very bad. Mac Jones threw for 213 yards, one TD and one INT. Their leading rusher, Damien Harris carried the ball nine times for 48 yards, and their leading receiver was Meyers with 55 yards. They scored seven total points, which came in the third quarter and now they have to travel to Pittsburgh to face one of the top defences in the league? I think -2.5 for the Steelers is even a good bet.
To make matters worse, Mac Jones missed Thursday practice with an illness. Not the ideal prep going into a tough match up with the Steelers. The Steelers may be missing TJ Watt this week, but they still have plenty of studs all around the defensive side of the ball. I like them to get pressure on Jones, regardless of Watt being out.
But to be objective, the Steelers are a little banged up themselves. We have spoken about TJ Watt, but Najee Harris is also struggling a little. He has a Lisfranc sprain, that’s not the full Lisfranc injury, but it’s still something to monitor. The Fantasy nerds are very worried. Besides that, they look ok. Trubisky had a classic game manager showing last week, throwing for 194 yards one TD. Freiermuth and Diontae Johnson looked good, and Claypool got in on the action too. They didn’t have massive statistical nights, but they looked good.
The +2.5 seems like a logical bet. I’m f*cking heavy with the Steelers here. This has 20-17 to the Steelers written all over it.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys: Bengals -7, 1 point @ 10/11
Bengals:
2022 Record: 0-1 (0-0 away).
Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 432.0 (4th) // Passing – 299.0 (5th) // Rushing – 133.0 (10th).
Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 261.0 (6th) // Passing – 192.0 (8th) // Rushing – 75.0 (6th).
Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 20.0 (17th) // PPG Allowed – 23.0 (19th).
Turnover Differential: -5 (32nd).
Injury Report (Out): Clark Harris – LS.
Cowboys:
2022 Record: 0-1 (0-1 home).
Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 244.0 (30th) // Passing – 173.0 (28th) // Rushing – 71.0 (27th).
Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 347.0 (15th) // Passing – 195.0 (10th) // Rushing – 152.0 (25th).
Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 3.0 (32nd) // PPG Allowed – 19.0 (9th).
Turnover Differential: (16th).
Injury Report (Out): Dak Prescott – QB, Jayron Kearse – S, James Washington – WR, Michael Gallup – WR.
I’d say this line will move more before 6pm Sunday rolls around. Both teams got off to a losing start, but one is in a far worse position than the other. Starting with the QBs, Cooper Rush is in for the injured Dak Prescott, wo will be out for a number of weeks with a hand injury. The 28-year-old was signed to the practice squad two weeks ago. Before that, Dallas had so little faith in him they dropped him completely to the waivers, knowing no one would pick him up as they rolled with Prescott as the only QB on the roster. Rush came in during the 4th quarter of the Bucs game and threw for 64 yards, logging seven completions on 13 attempts. He was also sacked twice. Prescott is a huge loss on an offence that seemed to be struggling already. For the Bengals, Burrow didn’t get off to the hottest start either. His four interceptions has him leading the INT race after week one. But he still threw for 338 yards and two touchdowns and kept his team in it all the way to the finish, where they could have won it if McPherson slotted either of his missed kicks. The upper hand in the QB department is massively in favour of the Bengals.
In terms of the rest of the offence, the Bengals are looking much stronger. Chase, Higgins and Boyd all looked good, while Ceedee Lamb and Co. struggled big time. Against the Steelers, Mixon carried the ball 27 times for 82 yards, which isn’t great, but it’s better than the 52 yards Zeke had against the Bucs. To be fair to Zeke, he did rush that total in only 10 attempts. The Bengals offence looks the stronger outfit.
One thing the Cowboys do have in their favour is their defence. They held Brady and the Bucs to 19 points on Sunday night, as Michael Parsons went off with two sacks. One of the favourites for defensive MVP is the heartbeat of the defence, and he’ll need to have a big one on Sunday night. It looks possible, as Burrow was sacked seven time against the Steelers. Overall, the Bengals D seems ok. They had the sixth best statistical performance of week one, and they should improve on that again.
I don’t see how Dallas keeps this one close, with their offensive woes. So, I’ll be taking the Bengals on the handicap here and praying that their O-Line can keep Joe Brrr upright.
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers: Packers -9.5, 1 point @ 10/11
Bears:
2022 Record: 1-0 (0-0 away).
Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 204.0 (32nd) // Passing – 105.0 (32nd) // Rushing – 99.0 (18th).
Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 331.0 (12th) // Passing – 155.0 (3rd) // Rushing – 176.0 (26th).
Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 19.0 (22nd) // PPG Allowed – 10.0 (6th).
Turnover Differential: +1 (6th).
Injury Report (Out): Alex Leatherwood – OT.
Packers:
2022 Record: 0-1 (0-0 home).
Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 338.0 (19th) // Passing – 227.0 (16th) // Rushing – 111.0 (14th).
Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 395.0 (25th) // Passing – 269.0 (24th) // Rushing – 126.0 (21st).
Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 7.0 (30th) // PPG Allowed – 23.0 (20th).
Turnover Differential: -2 (28th).
Injury Report (Out): No clear outs yet, but Bakhtiari, Lazard and Jenkins will be massive losses if declared out again.
The Mayor of Chicago and the owner of the Bears will look to get back on track this week in this NFC North divisional match-up. Rodgers has dominated Chicago in recent memory, including two comfortable wins last year. They won 24-14 in the windy city and 45-30 at home in Lambeau. The Lambeau game was closer than it should have been as well, as the Packers conceded 24 points in the second quarter, but only six points in the other three.
Last week, Rodgers was not at his best, throwing for only 195 yards. He didn’t have any TDs and registered one INT. Pretty bleak, but the game could have been very different if Christian Watson caught that absolute rocket from Rodgers, as he burned Patrick Peterson for what could have been a 75-yard touchdown. AJ Dillon also got stopped on the goal line twice in the second quarter. On another day, he gets over and levels the match. Looking at the Bears week one performance, it’s very hard to predict how they will fair this week. It was a monsoon in Chicago, and they lost in every statistical category, except for the one that matters. I guess the scoreboard is important… Rodgers won’t let them off the hook like Trey Lance did.
At home, with his back against the wall, I think Rodgers bounces back big time. Their ‘on-paper’ elite defence was poor last week, and I don’t see that happening again here. If you recall, they got hammered in their week one match-up last year, losing 38-3 to the Saints, but came back to beat Detroit 35-17 in Lambeau. Bit of ground hog day, maybe?
Atlanta Falcons @ LA Rams: Falcons +10, 1 point @ 10/11
Falcons:
2022 Record: 0-1 (0-0 away).
Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 416.0 (5th) // Passing – 215.0 (18th) // Rushing – 201.0 (4th).
Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 385.0 (21st) // Passing – 234.0 (17th) // Rushing – 151.0 (24th).
Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 26.0 (7th) // PPG Allowed – 27.0 (21st).
Turnover Differential: -1 (19th).
Injury Report (Out): Damien Williams – RB, Deion Jones – LB.
Rams:
2022 Record: 0-1 (0-1 home).
Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 243.0 (31st) // Passing – 191.0 (25th) // Rushing – 52.0 (32nd).
Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – (th) // Passing – (th) // Rushing – (th).
Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 10.0 (27th) // PPG Allowed – (th).
Turnover Differential: +1 (9th).
Injury Report (Out): Van Jefferson – WR. Few buckos questionable. E.g. Leonard Floyd.
This spread is large. The Falcons were really good against the Saints last week. Well, for three quarters, until they do their usual implosion when leading in the fourth. They were leading 23-10 going into the final quarter, until Michael Thomas caught fire, hauling in two TDs from Jameis Winston. They ran the ball well and Mariota moved the chains against a good Saints D. They shouldn’t have lost this game, but I suppose they still covered their spread.
The Rams on the other hand were a hot mess. Stafford got cooked, throwing three INTS and 240 yards passing. Jalen Ramsey was abysmal, and the Rams had a non-existent running game, only rushing for 52 yards total. To be fair, the Bills are one of the hottest teams right now on both sides of the ball. Stafford does have these wild games with multiple INTs, but generally they are few and far between. I would expect him to bounce back here, but the +10 spread is so high. I could see this being 26-20 to the Rams. The Falcons are frisky on offence, so if they can keep Stafford and Kupp in line, reasonably speaking, I think they should keep this within the spread.
All Week 2 Picks:
Carolina Panthers @ NY Giants: Giants -2, 0.5 point @10/11.
Saquon ran all over the Titans last week and he should do the same here. The Panthers conceded the second most rushing yards last week and it could be a repeat this week if Barkley is in the same form. The Giants also kept Derrick Henry under 100 yards, so will feel they can keep McCaffrey in relative check.
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars: Colts -3, 1 point @ 10/11.
Colts get back on track here. Wentz lit Jacksonville up last week and Ryan might do the same in this interesting divisional match-up.
Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens: Dolphins +3.5, 1 point @ 10/11.
Very tough to call this one on the spread. The Dolphins won 22-10 at home last year. They are a much stronger outfit offensively this year and their elite CBs should have some success against Lamar. The Ravens look like they are still without JK Dobbins, so their running game will struggle. This will be a low scoring one so if you’re not feeling the Dolphins +3.5, under 44.5 looks good as well.
NE Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Steelers +2.
Full review above.
NY Jets @ Cleveland Browns: Under 39.5, 2 points @ 10/11.
The Jets D held Lamar Jackson to 24 points last week. Jacoby Brissett is not putting up 24 points here and Joe Flacco will do well to get his team to 14. Take the under.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ NO Saints: Saints +2.5, 0.5 points @ 10/11.
The Saints have been Brady’s kryptonite over the last few years, so I am going to have to go with the home team and the added points. Also, last year, the Saints won both games with either Tayson Hill or Trevor Sieman at QB, and they were without Michael Thomas, Juice Landry or Chris Olave. However, the Saints will have to get off to a quicker start than they did against the Falcons.
Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions: Lions -1.5, 1 point @ 10/11
F*ck it, let’s ride with the Lions. It’s their first time as favourites in 24 games! (I do think they’ll win though).
Atlanta Falcons @ LA Rams: Falcons +10.
Full review above.
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers: Over 40.5, 1.5 points @ 10/11.
Going back to the over well on this one. My gut would say that the Seahawks will keep it between the 9-point spread, but I’m not confident with all the injuries on their defensive side of the ball. Jamal Adams is their biggest loss, as he is out for the season with a quad injury.
Arizona Cardinals @ Las Vegas Raiders: Raiders -5.5, 1 point @ 10/11.
Both teams have massive injury worries, but I think the Cardinals have it a little worse off. They will be without WRs, Andy Isabella and Rondale Moore, not to mention, Hopkins being out with suspension. The Raiders have issues on the defensive side of the ball, but I think they’re offence will be too good here. Carr was sloppy last week with three INTs, but he was facing an elite D.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys: Bengals -7.
Full review above.
Houston Texans @ Denver Broncos: Texans +10, 0.5 point @ 10/11.
Russell Wilson and Nathanial Hackett are shook after Monday Night Football. The Texans should have won last week against the Colts, and they keep it within the spread here.
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers: Packers -9.5.
Full review above.
€5 to €500 Challenge:
Monday Night Football Preview still to come..
- Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills.
- Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagle.
Ciao.
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