NAP RECORD: 11-5.
OVERALL RECORD: 112-132-4.
TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: +17.63 points.
WEEK 16 XMAS EVE RECORD: 4-3.
WEEK 16 XMAS EVE PROFIT/LOSS: +2.14.
We are back, bitches…
Week 17 Bets:
San Francisco 49ers @ LV Raiders: 49ers -9.5 (NAP), 2 points @ 10/11
The Raiders announced during the week that Jarrett Stidham would be starting in place of Carr for the remainder of the season. Meaning that they have fully given up and that Carr will likely be traded in the offseason. Great news for Niners fans who are already basking in the glory of their team being on an insane hot streak. The Niners are the number one defence in the league, with Bosa playing at a Defensive Player of the Year level. This could get messy and it’s very hard to see Las Vegas putting up any real points, unless they are down big at the end and the Niners take off all their starters. 34-10 incoming.
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots: Dolphins +2.5, 1.5 points @ 10/11
This could be one of the bets of the week. Tua is out but Teddy Bridgewater is a more than capable back-up, AND the Patriots could be missing three of their four starting cornerbacks. Missing three of their four starting CBs and have to face Tyreek and Waddle? No thanks. Marcus Jones and Jack Jones are listed as out and Jalen Mills is listed as questionable. Jonnu Smith is also listed as out and they have a number of starters as questionable, including Rhamondre Stevenson.
Both teams are fairly even statistically, except in the passing category, where the Dolphins are a bit ahead. They are both on ice cold streaks at the moment, having lost four in their last five, so I’m going to roll with the team with less injuries and more fire power going forward.
NO Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles: Eagles -5.5, 1.5 points @ 10/11
Love this selection. The Eagles are the highest scoring offence and 10th best defence in terms of points allowed. The Saints are 14th in terms of points allowed but only 23rd in terms of points scored. They are also the second worst team in terms of turnover differential, while the Eagles are the second best. The Eagles will be without Lane Johnson and more than likely Jalen Hurts, but they should have two much for New Orleans going forward. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a nice few turnovers as well, to swing it in Philly’s direction.
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions: Lions Win & Over 43.5 Points, 1 point @ 4/6
The Lions took home the spoils in the Windy City 31-30 on Nov 13th. Detroit were on a bit of a roll since then, until they suffered a shock defeat to the Panthers last week. Well, I was shocked anyway. They conceded 37 points to a Panthers team in a bit of transition. The Panthers have been much better since firing Rhule (winning three of their last four) and put up 320 yards on the ground against the Lions. This is a bit of a worry for Lions fans as the Bears pound the rock really well and rushed for 258 yards in their last match-up with Detroit.
Both teams are struggling massively on defence, with the Bears ranking 31st in terms of points allowed and the Lions ranking 32nd. The Lions are so hot on offence they are doing enough to win games. Pair that with the Bears ability to expose the Lions’ main weakness and you have yourselves what should be a high scoring game. I like the Lions to edge it as well, so combining the two here for a nice little 4/6 shot.
Remaining Week 17 Picks:
Arizona Cardinals @ Atlanta Falcons: N/A.
Two crap bags. Avoid.
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: N/A.
This game does have big playoff implications, but I have no interest in backing it. Too tough to call.
Cleveland Browns @ Washington Commanders: Commanders -2
The Commanders are fighting for their playoff lives and the Browns are looking ahead to next year, which should be the main factors in this game. The Commanders have lost two on the trot and now bring Wentz back in to start but are still within the playoff picture. The Browns are very much up and down (mainly down) since Watson has started under centre. They are 2-2, beating Houston and Baltimore, but losing to New Orleans and Cincinnati. They have scored more than 13 once in that four-game stretch, which was their game against the Texans where they scored a pick six and punt return TD.
Chubb has been quiet for them recently, and he faces a fairly sturdy run D this week in Washington, who are only giving up 114.4 yards per game, which is good enough for 13th in the run D rankings. Washington have been good at stopping the pass as well, coming in at seventh. The Browns have also been good at stopping the pass, but have been exposed on the ground, ranking in the bottom half. So, if Washington can dominate this home game on the ground and play their normal defensive game, they should get the job done and keep their playoff dream alive.
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs: N/A.
The spread is 12.5, which I would take if it wasn’t for the fact that this is the Broncos first game since firing their Head Coach. They might actually perform a little better.
Indianapolis Colts @ NY Giants: N/A.
No thanks.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans: N/A.
No great feeling towards this one. Fun fact: Texans have won the last nine outings.
NY Jets @ Seattle Seahawks: N/A
Interesting game but can’t land on a selection.
LA Rams @ LA Chargers: Chargers -6.5
Don’t look now but the Chargers are getting hot at the right time. They really weathered their bad part of the season quite well and now come into week 17, 9-6. The Rams are coming off a huge win against the Broncos, but I wouldn’t exactly be writing home about that.
The Chargers are fairly tight through the air on both sides of the ball. They are top three in passing yards per game and ninth in passing yards allowed per game. They are weak at stopping the run, but generally, the Rams have struggled on the ground during the year. Mayfield is hot and cold and against a decent passing D here, I think he’ll be leaning more towards cold. Chargers take this one by at least a touchdown.
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers: Vikings +3
This line is suspicious. Very suspicious. The 7-8 Packers are three-point underdogs against the 12-3 Vikings. I know they are at home and the Vikings have won 11 of their games by one score this year but having Minnesota as underdogs is wild. The Packers are on a three-game win streak, including a win against the Dolphins on Christmas Day, but I’m not convinced. Tua was concussed (again) in their game and threw three INTs, so didn’t exactly play his best. Their other two wins came against the Rams and Bears, respectively. The Vikings on the other hand are just getting it done by any means necessary, generally starting with Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson. And I think that’s where the bookies think they may come undone. The Packers have the third ranked defence is terms of passing yards allowed. But then again, they got slashed open by the Dolphins even with Tua throwing three INTs. Waddle went for 143 and Tyreek went for 103. If Cousins can get the ball to JJ, Thielen and Hockenson any bit like he usually does, they should do it. They should also get a tune out of Dalvin Cook, as Green Bay can be got at on the ground. Minnesota, please hold it together defensively…
ACCA
Just one point on the acca today.
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