NAP RECORD: 8-4.
OVERALL RECORD: 96-102-4.
TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: +24.74 points.
WEEK 13 TNF RECORD: 0-1.
WEEK 13 TNF PROFIT/LOSS: N/A.
Another tough slate last Sunday. Some cracking games to look forward to this weekend though, so hopefully we can land a few winners.
Week 13 Bets:
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears: Packers -3, 2 points @ 10/11
This has to be one of the bets of the week, even with Rodgers nursing a bit of a thumb injury. The Mayor of Chicago is currently dealing with a thumb injury on his throwing hand but is off the injury report for his clash with Justin Fields and the… well just Justin Fields because the Bears suck and any good player they have is either traded or injured. Darnell Mooney and safety, Eddie Jackson, have been moved to IR and will miss tomorrow’s game with the Packers. The Bears will also be without Jaquan Brisker and Kyler Gordon, which is not ideal when trying to stop the Green Bay offence, even with its struggles. This has to be a big Green Bay win. It just has to be. They put up 33 points against the Eagles last week and now face the worst defence in the league. Justin Fields being back is huge for the Bears, but it won’t be enough, given the other core pieces they are missing. Rodgers will still own the Bears after Sunday’s matchup.
Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans: Browns -6.5, 1 point @ 10/11
I cannot wait to see the reception DeShaun Watson gets when he takes the field for the first time in over two years, tomorrow. The ex-Texan is making his first appearance for the Browns and his first appearance since his sexual assault scandal. The NFL is a fairly messed up place at times and this is just another example of it. Moving onto the topic of the game itself, the Browns should get the business done here, pretty easy. Training reports haven’t been great about Watson and his preseason was pretty bad, but the Browns offence, particularly the run, is scary good. The Texans have the worst run defence in the league, to go along with one of the worst total offences. Hard to see them staying in this one, even if DeShaun has a slow start to his new NFL career.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Atlanta Falcons: Over 42.5, 1 point @ 10/11
No great feeling towards this game, but I really like the over. Pickett and the Steelers seem to be getting something moving on offence, as they have put up 24 and 30 points in their last two games, respectively. Atlanta are a bit wishy washy on offence, but both defences are really struggling (24th and 25th in points allowed category), and for that reason I think this game should go over the fairly low points total.
Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers: Miami +4, 1 point @ 10/11
Ehhhhhhhhh papiiiiii, send me the Dolphins with 4 points any day and I’ll take them and run. I am really high on the Niners and think they could go all the way to the Super Bowl but covering more than 4 points against the Dolphins is not something I want to take right now. CMC is doing bits for San Francisco but was sharing a lot of the workload with Elijah Mitchell, who is now out for up to 6-8 weeks with a knee injury. Mitchell is a big loss, as he is their main ground and pound guy, while CMC does a lot of the pass catching duties. There isn’t too much need to get into the stats on this one, except to note that this is an elite offence going against an elite defence. The 49ers also have a pretty elite offence, but Miami’s is on another level and will hopefully help lead them to victory, or at least to cover the spread. The Niners last loss was against the Chiefs, at the end of October, a true offensive powerhouse, just like the Dolphins.
Remaining Week 13 Picks:
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens: N/A.
Not too sure about this one. The Broncos are atrocious, but the Ravens just can’t seem to cover a spread. 9.5 is huge as well.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions: Lions -1
The Jags got a big win last week against the Ravens but shouldn’t have been anywhere near it. The Ravens are trying their best to be the Raiders with all these blown games. Trevor Lawrence is starting to be the player he was predicted to be, as he slang that thanggggg for 321 yards and three TDs, making Zay Jones look like Randy Moss in the process. As the spread states, this game looks awful close. The Lions are one of the hot hands in the league, with three wins in their last four and tough last second loss to the Bills. The Lions are one of the best offensive teams in the league and I think if Jared Goff can have a good game against a weak Jacksonville secondary, I think they take this one. Just. Lawrence’s away record leaves a lot to be desired (1-4 in 2022) and with the crowds now flocking back to Ford Field, it should be a hostile enough environment for the young Clemson QB. Hopefully this game will be a points fest as well.
NY Jets @ Minnesota Vikings: Jets +3.0
I actually like the Jets in this one. I’m not saying the Vikings are a one-dimensional team, but if you can shut down Justin Jefferson, then you will have a decent amount of success. Sauce Gardner, the Jets rookie CB, is currently rated the number one CB on Pro Football Focus. He has been shutting dudes down all year and will likely take up the mantle of marking JJ on Sunday evening. The Jets D, in general, is firing on all cylinders, currently ranking fourth in terms of total yards allowed per game, fifth in points allowed per game and fourth in overall defensive DVOA. They will get stops against Vikings and with Mike White seemingly able to move the ball much better than Zach Wilson, I like them to at least keep it between the spread. The Vikings having a hit or miss defence is only going to make that more of a reality, as they are currently bottom half in points allowed and defensive DVOA.
Tennessee Titans @ Philadelphia Eagles: Titans +4.5
I can’t seem to get a Titans game right these days. I thought they would lose to Green Bay and then keep it within the spread against Cincinnati, so take this selection with that in mind. I’m going with the Titans in this one for a few reasons;
- The Eagles can be run on and if there is one man to take advantage of that it’s King Henry.
- The Eagles are missing some key players like, CJ Gardner Johnson and Dallas Goedart.
- The Titans are an elite run D and the Eagles offence starts with the run.
- 5 is a decent spread to be giving a team that is 7-4.
Washington Commanders @ NY Giants: N/A.
Can’t decide on which way to go with this one so just going to leave it out.
Seattle Seahawks @ LA Rams: Seahawks -7
The Rams seem to be giving up on their season and even Aaron Donald is out for this one. The Seahawks have had a couple of shaky performances over the last couple of weeks, but I think they get right here. With Donald out, the Seahawks and Kenneth Walker should have an easier time running the ball. Walker running well allows the rest of the Seattle offence to flourish and for that reason, I’ll be hanging with the Seahawks in this one.
KC Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals: Bengals +3
Oh mannnnn, what a game in the prime 9:25 slot. Adios redzone for this one. The rematch of last year’s AFC Championship is sure to get the juices flowing, as the 9-2 Chiefs travel to Paul Brown Stadium to take on the 7-4 Bengals, who are really warming into the season. The Bengals have won five of their last six, including a very impressive away win against the Titans, last week. The Chiefs have won their last five and are red hot on offence, currently leading the league in points scored per game.
As the spread suggests, this is a tough one to call, but I’m going to ride with the Bengals. Both teams are so close statistically, with the Chiefs putting up more offence, but allowing more yards on defence. This one is completely gut feel as I can’t seem to split them. If you were to really get into the stats, the Bengals probably edge it. The Chiefs bleed more yards through the air and have lost their last two games against the Bengals. Having someone’s number is real in the NFL and the Bengals seem to have the Chiefs. Should be a cracking game either way and I definitely won’t be backing it, so I can properly enjoy it. Lol.
LA Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders: Over 49.5
Both of these defences are dog rough, but both have offences that can get very hot. The two teams met on September 11th, with the Chargers taking home the spoils in a 24-17 victory. Nowhere near close to the 50 points we need in this game, but Carr was all over the shop in that loss, throwing 3 INTs. Josh Jacobs also had a quiet game, rushing for 57 yards total. Fast forward to present day and Josh Jacobs is leading the league in rushing and is single handily keeping fellas in fantasy championships. He’ll feast again here against a rushing defence that is 28th in terms of yards allowed per game. Derek Carr is also looking much improved, throwing five TDs in their recent two game win streak. For the Chargers, they have been grinding, beating Arizona, 25-24, last week, and narrowly losing to the Chiefs the week before that. Both defences are near the bottom of the points allowed statistics and their game last year, in Vegas, notched up 67 points.
Indianapolis Colts @ Dallas Cowboys: Cowboys -10.5
Cmon, Dallas. Lay down a marker here and solidify yourself as a real Super Bowl contender. 10.5 is a massive spread, but if the Cowboys could manage it and blow out the Colts by 20+ points, they would really start been taken as the real deal. Dallas are sitting at 8-3, 5-1 at home, currently trying to reel in the Eagles who are at 10-1 and top of the division. The Colts, on the other hand, crashed back down to earth, last week against the Steelers, as they lost 24-17 at home.
The Colts have been bad, but their defence has been pretty solid. They are in and around top ten in most categories and pretty decent in stopping offences moving the ball. But will they be able to stop the Dallas offence, as they are really starting to cook? 28, 40, 28 and 49 over their last four games respectively, is pretty decent. Dak is looking good, and the combo of Pollard and Zeke is pretty electric. I do think the Colts will slow Dallas down, but it’s Indianapolis going forward that I am very worried about. Currently, the Colts are one of the worst offences in the league and it probably won’t get any better this week against a Dallas defence that is second in total points allowed. The Colts only hope is that Jonathan Taylor goes off and exposes a weaker Dallas run D. Should be an interesting game, but I hope the Cowboys lay one of the Colts.
Player Prop Bets & Acca:
One point on each selection and the acca.
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