NAP RECORD: 7-4.
OVERALL RECORD: 91-92-4.
TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: +28.01 points.
THANKSGIVING RECORD: 0-7.
THANKSGIVING PROFIT/LOSS: -7.5 points.
Well, Thanksgiving was a disaster…but we go again wah.
Week 12 Bets:
NO Saints @ San Francisco 49ers: 49ers -9.5, 2 points @ 10/11 (NAP)
The Saints suck and the 49ers look primed for a Super Bowl run. The Saints are coming off a win against the Rams, but that’s not much to be writing home about. The Rams are in big trouble without Cooper Kupp, but still put up 20 away to them. The Saints are now 4-7, but 1-3 away from home. They have been good against the pass, ranking 7th in terms of passing yards per game, but have been pretty weak against the run, currently ranking 23rd. You can see it too in their results. Big losses to the Ravens and Steelers (Pittsburgh put up 217 yards rushing) in recent weeks, show they aren’t doing much to stop the ground and pound, and as ye all know, the Niners run the ball as well as anyone. CMC, Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel is just not who you want to be facing when you can’t stop the run. This looks like it will be another dominant display by the Niners, which will extend their strong win streak to four.
LV Raiders @ Seattle Seahawks: Seahawks -3.5, 1 point @ 10/11
The Raiders are so bad. Their three wins this year are the Texans and the Broncos home and away. They are one of the worst defences in the league and have been beat by some pretty average/bad offences. Indy with a new coach and a blowout by New Orleans, is not ideal. They are ranking 24th in terms of points scored and dead last in terms of defensive DVOA (just to recap, DVOA basically takes into account the strength of opponent when analysing stats). Las Vegas obviously have Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams at their disposal, but I am not sure if those guys are enough to make up for the disastrous defence. The Seattle rush defence leaves something to be desired, as they are currently ranked 28th in terms of rushing yards allowed per game, but they really only need to focus on Jacobs and Adams in this one, as Renfrow and Waller are out.
The Raiders defence is consistently bad, so you would hope the promising Seattle offence can take advantage. Seattle are seventh in terms of offensive DVOA and fifth in terms of points scored per game. Their offence is a nice mix of Kenneth Walker pounding the rock and Geno Smith connecting on the deep balls. They got shutdown offensively against the Bucs, but that’s because they couldn’t get anything going on the ground. They shouldn’t have the same problem here as the Raiders rush D is a mixed bag at best. Holla at your boy, Seahawks.
Chicago Bears @ NY Jets: Jets -6, 1 point @ 10/11
Give me the Jets all day, baby. Justin Fields looks like he’ll be out with a ‘separated left shoulder with partially torn ligaments’. Fields is the Bears offence and without him, I really struggle to see how the Bears will move the ball. The Jets also have one of the top defences in the league, as they showed last week against the Patriots. The Jets are currently around the 9th/10th spot in most of the defensive categories and have only conceded more than 20 points, once, since week three. They should have a ‘Fields’ day without Justin playing… (I’m so sorry).
The Jets offence has not been good, however. That’s been mainly down to Zach Wilson, and the good news for that one Jets’ fan is that Mike White starts this game. Zach Wilson has been benched and White Lightning comes in to see if he can get the struggling offence moving. White hasn’t started this year, but he got some playing time last year with Wilson out. He can get hot, but also very cold. He had an ok TD/INT ration of 5/4 in his first three games last year, before throwing four INTs against the Bills. The Jets have far superior offensive weapons this year, so I think with Fields being out and Mike White playing a mediocre game, they should get the job done.
* If Fields plays, cancel this call.
Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins: Dolphins -13.5, 1 point @ 10/11
It’s the Texans with Kyle Allen under centre…. (Tears drip down my face and onto my Texans hoody).
Remaining Week 12 Picks:
Atlanta Falcons @ Washington Commanders: Falcons +4
This is a very tough one to call. It’s strength on strength in this matchup, as the strong Atlanta run offence tries to get through the solid Commanders run D. Overall, the Commanders defence is on the rise, as they have dragged their team to five wins in their last six. Heinicke has been decent, but it has mainly been down to the Washington front seven getting after the QB, as well as stopping the run. Their defence hasn’t given up more than 21 since week three and their run defence is in the top three. The Falcons have been so hit or miss and generally get cooked through the air. They squeezed out a win last week against the Bears but got blown out the week before by the Panthers. That variability is keeping me away from backing them, but with the weather looking pretty bleak for tomorrow’s game, I think their run game might keep them in it. Even with Washington’s tough run D…
Baltimore Ravens @ Jacksonville Jaguars: Ravens -4
The Ravens are fairly hot at the moment, following their four-game winning streak and ten-point win over the Panthers, last Sunday. Baltimore are 4-1 away from home and their defence is really starting to coming alive, following their trade for LB, Roquon Smith. They have put the clamps on their opponents over that four-game stretch and haven’t conceded more than 22 since their matchup against the Giants. However, their offence has been a little hot and cold and a 13-point performance against the Panthers wouldn’t fill me with confidence. The good news, though, is Mark Andrews doesn’t have an injury designation for the first time in weeks. With Rashod Bateman out for the season and Demarcus Robinson looking unlikely for Sunday’s game, having Andrews back would be a huge plus, as the Jaguar’s D can be fairly stout.
The Jaguars are currently 3-7 but coming off their bye week. They are in a fairly bad patch of their season, having lost four of their last five, but have put up some ok performances in that stretch. They easily could have been closer to the Chiefs and Giants, and I suppose we have to give them a little credit for coming back from 17-0 against the Raiders to get the W. Although, the Raiders are the choke artists of the year. The Jaguars offence has been good this year, featuring in the top ten in total yards and top seven in rushing yards per game. But they are bottom half in terms of points scored and have struggled when they have faced good run defences. Bad news for the Jags is that the Ravens have a top three run D. Ravens take this by a touchdown.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans: Titans +3
It was a mistake taking the Packers over the Titans, in their matchup, and I won’t be making the same error again (until they let me down). The Titans are just getting it done. Major props to them, as they sit atop the AFC South with a 7-3 record (3-1 at home). They have only lost once, since week three, which was their three-point defeat to the Chiefs at Arrowhead. They are the top run stopping team and while they have given up decent passing yards in some games, Football Outsiders still has them ranked 13th in terms of passing DVOA defence. But the most important stat when looking ahead to this game is that Mike Vrabel is 9-0 when coming off an extended break or a bye week. Derrick Henry doing Derrick Henry things, Tannehill back to full strength, and their receiving group of Burks and Woods, seemingly building into their season, has this one edging the way of Tennessee, for me.
But what type of fight will the Bengals put up? They’re just off a big divisional win against the Steelers, where Burrow slang that thang for 355 yards, four TDs and two INTs. Tee Higgins had a monster game, and the duo will look to have another big one here, as they try to expose the softer underbelly of the Tennessee D. Ja’Marr Chase is also potentially back for this contest, but I would say he is more likely not to play, than play.
This’ll be a close one with Tennessee out to try and avenge their playoff loss from last year. Have to roll with Vrabel and the Titans on this one, as they haven’t really left their backers down all year.
Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers: N/A.
I didn’t think the Broncos Raiders game could be topped for worst game of the season, but here we are…
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cleveland Browns: Browns +3.5
I may get this very wrong, but I think the Browns will hang around in this one. The Bucs are coming off their bye week after a big win in Munich, the week before. Brady and Co. seem to be building into the season and will look to make it three in a row versus the 3-7 Browns, this Sunday.
The Bucs have had their offensive troubles and have only put up more than 21 points, twice, this season. Brady was decent against the Seahawks, putting up 258 passing yards, with two TDs and one INT, but it was more promising to see rookie RB, Rachad White do the bizz on the ground with 105 yards rushing. While the Bucs offence has been a bit cold, their defence has been holding their season together. The defence is currently ranked fourth in terms of points allowed and eight in terms of defensive DVOA, and they’ll need to be good this Sunday, as the Browns offence is cooking.
The Browns offence is currently ranking fourth in terms of total yards per game and tenth in points scored. DVOA is also high, coming in at fourth overall. Their offence has a nice balance of passing and running, which is sort of a surprise, given Brissett is under centre. Nick Chubb has been slightly quiet the last couple of weeks, and he was completely shut down by the Bills last week.
This looks like a pretty interesting game as the Browns are shocking on D, but hot on offence. The Bucs are the opposite. The reason I’m hanging with the Browns on this one is that they get the extra points, and the weather is looking pretty grim on Sunday, which might nudge it in the direction of the Browns’ ground and pound.
LA Chargers @ Arizona Cardinals: Over 48.0
I just want everyone to have fun in this game. Both teams are leaking points and with both defences struggling (the Cardinals are really struggling) I think it’s the smarter play to go with the over. The one worry is that Kyler Murray isn’t playing, but Colt McCoy handles himself pretty well in the Kingsbury offence.
LA Rams @ Kansas City Chiefs: N/A.
The spread is 15.5 and rising. Little too much for me as the Rams D might actually keep this closer than you think.
On a side note, Chiefs v Niners for the Super Bowl wouldn’t be a bad bet.
Player Prop Bets & Acca:
One point on each selection and the acca.
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