NAP RECORD: 6-4.

OVERALL RECORD: 85-77-3.

TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: +36.24 points.

WEEK 11 RECORD: 1-1.

WEEK 11 PROFIT/LOSS: 0 points.

Thread carefully this week, my friends. This was a super tough week to analyse and I was back and forth on a lot of picks.

Week 11 Bets:

Washington Commanders @ Houston Texans: Commanders -3 (NAP) 1 point @ 10/11

I’m probably just going to go against my Texans, every week from here on in… they suck so bad. Over the last four games, they have lost by, 8, 12, 7 and 18. I will give them a little credit though, in saying that they have played some decent teams in that stetch. Giants, Eagles and Titans all have winning records, but the Raider definitely do not. The Commanders on the other hand are riding high, going four for five and nailing a huge win against the Eagles on Monday night football. Their one loss coming in that stetch was against the Vikings. They are slyly going well and have looked pretty good on defence over the last few weeks. They are top ten in terms of yards allowed and middle of the pack in terms of points allowed. They are also number two in terms of rush DVOA defence, which is relevant for this match-up as Houston’s offence is currently running (pardon the pun) through Dameon Pierce. Staying on the topic of rushing, Houston are incapable of stopping the run and Washington’s Brian Robinson is starting to come into his own, in a nice tandem with Antonio Gibson. Robinson is dominating the ball carrying downs and Gibson is securing the passing third downs, in a nice one-two punch. I expect them to have a nice game here, and with a Taylor Heinicke brimming with confidence, I feel they should get the job done against Houston.

Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings: Vikings +1.5, 1 point @ 10/11

The Vikings seem like the real deal and this line seems slightly disrespectful. The Vikings are 8-1, 4-0 at home and are the underdogs in the eyes of the bookies. Which is pretty surprising given the fact that the Cowboys are coming off a pretty bad loss to the Packers. But going back and looking at Dallas’ last few results, they may be getting a little too much credit. They have beaten the Bears, Lions and Rams. Three pretty average teams. They obviously have a loss to the Packers, but also a loss to the Eagles. The decent oppositions they have faced, they got beat. The defence deserves a lot of credit though. They are fifth in terms of points allowed, second in defensive DVOA and they lead the league in sacks. They will get stops against Minnesota, the question is, will their offence do enough? The Cowboys offence has been flowing through Tony Pollard the last few weeks, as he has been able to thrive with Zeke out injured. But for Dallas to have any chance, they need to get the passing game going. They are currently 26^th in terms of passing yards per game and might have success here as the Vikings’ passing D is currently ranked 29^th. Looking at where Dallas might be exposed by Minnesota, its most likely going to be on the ground. That’s not to say that Jefferson won’t carve Trevon Diggs wide open, it’s just that Dallas are allowing 143 yards per game on the ground, which is good enough for 29^th in the league. This should be a cracking game and if Minnesota can keep Cousins upright and pound the rock with Dalvin Cook, I think they’ll squeeze this one out.

Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons: Over 49, 1 point @ 10/11

Another tough game to call here, so going to go with the over. I really don’t have any great feeling for this game, but the stats say these two defences suck so bad. They are both ranked bottom four in terms of defensive DVOA and are both bottom eight in terms of points allowed. The Bears are 28^th in terms of rushing yards allowed and Falcons are 31^st in terms of passing yards allowed. Justin Fields has taken the Bears offence to new heights in the last few weeks and each of their last three games have gone over 60 points. The Falcons offence has slowed up in recent weeks, but I am hoping they get back on track with it here and expose a bad Chicago run D, with their strong running offence.

Remaining Week 11 Picks:

Carolina Panthers @ Baltimore Ravens: Ravens -13

I haven’t been very good at picking big spreads or Carolina games this year, so take this pick with a word of warning. The core reason I’m going with the Ravens is that they are the number two team in terms of rushing yards per game and number one team in terms of rush DVOA (DVOA measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent), and Carolina are in the bottom half of the same categories, from a defensive perspective. The Panthers may have got a good win last Thursday night against the Falcons, but divisional games can be tricky, and Carolina obviously face up well against Atlanta. Prior to that game, the Panthers were beaten by 21 at Cincinnati. The Ravens are coming into this game off their bye week and a 14-point win over New Orleans. The only real concern for me on this one is that Mark Andrew is still limited at practice. Having the big man in the game would be a massive help. Some additional reasons for picking this big Ravens spread.

• Ravens are top three in turnovers. Panthers are bottom eight.
• Ravens are 12^th in total yards. Panthers are second last.
• Ravens are third in offensive DVOA, and Panthers are 29^th.
• Lamar Jackson is starting for the Ravens. Baker Mayfield is starting for the Panthers.

Let’s roll, Baltimore.

Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills: Bills -8

I am back and forth on this one, as it seems very hard to call. The game has been moved to Detroit, due to six feet of snow being predicted for Buffalo on Sunday afternoon. The Bills are just after losing a crazy game with the Vikings that they should have won, had it not been for Josh Allen’s fumble on his own goal line. They were completely dominating that game going into the fourth and surprisingly fell away. They were up 27-17 but allowed Vikings to score 13 in the final quarter to level, and then lost it in OT. Looking ahead to this game, the Bills should have no issues putting up points, once Josh Allen is healthy and starts. They are the top offence and a top eight defence, facing a Browns team that are a top six offence but a bottom 2/3 defence. Allen should move the ball with ease here and put up some big points, but the only worry is that Cleveland might end up doing the same. However, I feel like Buffalo will have a sour taste in their mouth after last week and will want to show everyone how dominant they are by steamrolling Cleveland, in this week 11 matchup. Bills take this one by ten.

Detroit Lions @ NY Giants: Lions +3.5

Are the Lions starting to build something decent? They have two wins in a row, including a real nail biter against Chicago. Two wins over divisional rivals is a huge boost for their confidence. They have been knocking on the door all year, with close losses to the Eagles, Vikings, Seattle and Miami. They needed to get over the hump and now they have. They will face some issues here though, mainly in the form of Saquon Barkley. The Lions are the 31^st ranked rushing defence in terms of yards allowed but seem to be improving. Aaron Rodgers was the top rusher for Green Bay, when they played, and Khalil Herbert only put up 57 yards last week. Although Justin Fields did put up 147… The Giants are not the defensive unit they were at the start of the year and have now dropped into the bottom half of the statistics. But they are winning games and that’s all that matters. I think this will be a close one and the Giants might win it, but I feel it will be within a touchdown if it is.

LA Rams @ NO Saints: Saints -3

Cooper Kupp has been put on IR so the Rams season looks like it’s getting late, early. Stafford is also in concussion protocol and looking questionable for Sunday’s game, so all roads lead towards a Saints W. Even without the injuries, both teams have looked really poor this year. They have both lost four of their last five, with some being pretty ugly. The Saints seem to have more flashes of decency, however. The shutout of Las Vegas in week eight, the close loss to Cincinnati in week six and the big offensive night against the Cardinals, during week seven’s TNF. Some have been saying the Rams D has been good, but they are still middle of the pack in terms of points scored, and with the offence (Kupp) now gone, it’s hard to see them putting up enough points to stay with New Orleans in this one. It also can’t be overlooked that this is a journey from west to east(ish) for LA, in an early time slot, which does usual have some effect on the game. If the Saints can win the turnover battle, or at least stay level, they should win this game. Both teams have been shocking in that category so far this year, so it’s plausible to think they can. Not exactly the most exciting game, but it could yield some good returns.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers: N/A.

AFC North divisionally match up that could go either way, in terms of the spread.

NY Jets @ NE Patriots: Jets +3.5

The Patriots own the Jets, but tomorrow’s game feels a little different to me. The Patriots took home the W in MetLife stadium, but the Jets secured a massive win against the Bills a couple of weeks ago, which is sure to boost their confidence. The Patriots have won 14 straight against the Jets, and they might make it 15 here, but I think it will, at worst, be within a touchdown. Both defences are operating in a pretty elite manner, with the Patriots slightly edging it, due to their massive performance against Sam Ehlinger and the Colts in their last game. Both teams are fairly evenly matched, so the key to this game will be dictated by which quarter back can make the least amount of mistakes. Zach Wilson has been a bit of a liability, but Mac Jones has really struggled as well in his return from injury. If you like defensive football, this will be your type of game.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Indianapolis Colts: N/A.

I have looked at this game for days and can’t see the pick. If you put a gun to my head I would say that the Colts may hang around in this. The handicap is big.

LV Raiders @ Denver Broncos: N/A.

Throw this game in the skip. Just cancel it.

Kansas City Chiefs @ LA Chargers: Chiefs -5

The Chiefs are arguably the best team in the league at the moment. They are the number one offence in terms of yards per game and offensive DVOA. Mahomes is playing at an MVP level and has led his team to a 7-2 record. The Chargers, on the other hand, are battling. They are fighting injuries and doing their best to keep their head above water, in a hotly contested AFC. To add to their extensive list of injuries, they also just lost two starting defensive tackles in last week’s loss to the 49ers. The Chiefs are streets ahead in most statistical categories, except for passing yards allowed. And that’s where the worry starts to creep in. Although I am sticking with the Chiefs on this one, it’s not one of my bets, as they have only beaten the Chargers by more than five, once in the last five outings. That win was a walk off OT touchdown as well. I’m really not confident about this selection, but I’m sticking with it anyway. Classic McGrath.

Player Prop Bets & Acca:

One point on each selection and the acca.