NAP RECORD: 5-4.
OVERALL RECORD: 80-69-2.
TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS: +37.35 points.
WEEK 10 TNF RECORD: 0-1.
WEEK 10 TNF PROFIT/LOSS: N/A.
Week 10 Bets:
Houston Texans @ NY Giants: Giants -4.5 (NAP), 1.5 points @10/11
Oh, baby. I like this spread a lot. I don’t think the Giants will completely massacre the Texans, but I definitely think they’ll beat them by more than 4.5 points. You all know I love a bit of strength on weakness crime and the Giants run offence against the Texans’ run defence is as big a mismatch as they come. The Texans are allowing a whopping 180.6 yards rushing per game, which is good enough for worst in the league, by an astonishing 32 yards per game. Truly dreadful, and now they have to face Saquon and the most dynamic QB in the leagueeeee, Danny Dimes… The Giants are running the ball for an average of 161.5 yards per game and have the added benefit of doing this week’s dirty work at home. The Giants are currently 3-1 at home and will look to make it 4-1 this Sunday.
I am really looking for ways for the Texans to stay in it, but they are hard to come by. They are mediocre/bad in the majority of statistics. They are ok against the pass, but the Giants don’t really throw the ball anyway. They are decent in turnover differential because of their strong secondary, but again, if the Giants commit to the run, like they should, Petry and Stingley won’t have much opportunity for big takeaways. The Giants can be got at in the run game, and Pierce is running the rock exceptionally well, but I don’t see it being enough. Lock in the GMEN at 4.5.
Denver Broncos @ Tennessee Titans: Titans -2.5, 1 point @ 10/11
Like the Seahawks, I think the Titans are being criminally underrated. 5-3, having won 5 of their last six, coming close to the win last week against the Chiefs, with the rookie Malik Willis under centre, is pretty decent. They are greater than the sum of their parts and with King Henry in the form he is in, it’s hard to look too far away from them in this matchup against the disappointing Broncos.
Both teams are nursing some injuries, so it’s important to deep dive into those. For the Titans, Zach Cunningham, Bud Dupree, Jeffrey Simmons, Teair Tart, Amani Hooker, all didn’t practice on Thursday. All those guys are on the defensive side of the ball, so if they don’t end up playing, it could be an opportunity for Russ and the Broncos offence to get right. For the Broncos, they will likely be without Baron Browning and KJ Hamler, and have a number of others who were limited in practice on Thursday, like Justin Simmons. They will also be without Bradley Chubb, who was traded to the Dolphins a couple of weeks ago.
I’m hoping that some of the Titans defensive players on the injury report can make it through to the game, because if they do, I would say it’s lights out for Denver. The Broncos are one of the worst teams going forward, and the fact that they are now without some of their best defensive players, it’s hard to see them competing away from home.
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers: Cowboys -5, 1 point @ 10/11
The Packers seem to be in big, big trouble. Losing your last five games is not a good look for the current back-to-back reigning MVP. Rodgers isn’t playing overly bad but registering nine points against one of the worst, if not the worst defence in the league is not good. They are also dealing with a number of injuries as Romeo Doubs and Rashan Gary are definitely out, and Eric Stokes, Preston Smith, David Bakhtiari, Aaron Jones and plenty others are questionable. They are really beat up, unlike the Cowboys who are coming off their bye week nice and refreshed.
The Cowboys have won six of their last seven, with their last game being their wild 78-point contest against the Bears. That game was their first time conceding over 17 points all season. Justin Fields has shown us that he can put up big numbers against others, so I don’t have too much of a worry that Dallas will concede big again here. The Packers are averaging 17 points per game on the year, and I could see them falling around that number here. Dallas would then need to register at least 22 (quick maths) to get the job done. Which they should, seeing as Green Bay can be got at on the ground and Tony Pollard is running the rock just lovely.
Remaining Week 10 Picks:
(MUNICH GAME) Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Seahawks +3
The first NFL game to ever be held in Germany will take place this Sunday at 2:30pm, between the red-hot Seahawks and meh Buccaneers. The Seahawks are three-point underdogs here and I really can’t see why. To start with, it is an international game and one further on in time zones, compared to a London game. This is unchartered territory for everyone involved and should add some volatility to the game. The Seahawks are also on a four-game winning streak, while the Bucs have won one of their last four. They needed a game winning drive from Brady, to beat a Rams team who are struggling at the moment. I have serious reservations about the Bucs at this stage of the season, particularly when facing a team in serious form, in unfamiliar surroundings.
The Seahawks are 6-3 against the spread, while Brady and the Bucs are 2-6-1. The Seahawks are conceding 16.5 points per game, over the last four games. Their defence is really starting to take shape, which is complimenting their strong offense really well. Gino and the offence have put up 28.5 points per game in that four-game stretch, meaning they have been winning their games with ease. The same can’t be said for the Bucs who are really struggling on offence, and have only put up more than 22 points, once, and are averaging 18.0 points on the season.
I’m not getting caught up in Brady’s win last week and I’m taking the Seahawks with confidence here. The added points are a bonus.
Minnesota Vikings @ Buffalo Bills: N/A.
Josh Allen is currently ‘day to day’ according to Sean McDermott. The star QB is dealing with an elbow injury and until we know his status for the game, I will be staying away from calling it.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs: Jaguars +10
I am generally wary of big spreads, particularly when the Chiefs are involved. Ten points is a lot, especially playing against a QB who can get hot. The stats do show that Trevor Lawrence is not as good away from home, but his guy, Travis Etienne is getting as explosive as they come, and is taking the pressure off of him more and more. Etienne has eclipsed 100 yards rushing for the last three games and while they haven’t won all those games, they have been closer than the rest. The Chiefs have generally been good against the run, but Henry showed last week that a really good back with a good o-line can have some success. The Chiefs have also been giving up decent yards through the air, currently ranking 24th in terms of passing yards allowed. The Chiefs are also in the bottom half of the league in terms of points allowed, so the Jags may actually have some success going forward.
The Jags are currently 3-6 after registering a big win against Las Vegas. It is a bit of a worry for this game that they were down 17-0 early on last week. The Raiders then pulled a Raiders and blew another big league. The good news is the Jags haven’t lost by more than eight points all year and have a solid enough offence and defence to keep them in this. They are eight in terms of total offensive yards and 18th in terms of points scored. They are 16th in terms of total defensive yards and 11th in terms of points allowed. I don’t think they’ll win this one, but they look solid enough to be there or thereabouts, in terms of the spread.
Cleveland Browns @ Miami Dolphins: N/A.
Not too keen on calling this one. The Browns are like a can of Efes. They could level you or have no effect at all. Maybe the over if you really wanted to back this game.
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears: Over 48.5
No great feeling for either team on this one, but both have absolutely atrocious defences. Both are averaging at least 24 points per game and the Bears last two games have gone over 70 points. Both offences are built on the run and therefore expose each other’s weaknesses. The only worry is that this is an NFC divisional game out in the open in Chicago. I am sticking with this for now, but if the weather is bad on Sunday, I’ll likely remove this selection all together.
NO Saints @ Pittsburgh Steelers: N/A.
Staying well away from this. You just don’t know what Saints team will turn up on any given day.
Indianapolis Colts @ LV Raiders: N/A.
No thanks. The Colts are a bit of a shit show at the moment, but so are the Raiders.
Arizona Cardinals @ LA Rams: Rams -1.5
McVay and the Rams own Kingsbury and the Cardinals, as they have won five of the last six. Both team are struggling this year, with the Cardinals sitting at 3-6 and the Rams sitting at 3-5. The loser of this game is likely cooked for the year, so it’s a pretty big game in the grand scheme of things.
While the Rams defence has been playing relatively well this year, the offence has really struggled. They have no ground game and with Odell gone, Stafford has not been himself. The good news for Rams’ fans is that Stafford likes the Cardinals matchup. Over the last three games against the Cardinals, Stafford has five TDs to zero INTs. In 2022, the Cardinals are 25th in terms of passing yards allowed and 31st in terms of points allowed, so I would expect Stafford to get down to business, once again, on Sunday night.
These teams really have their backs against the wall, and I would trust McVay and the Rams a lot more than Kingsbury and the Cardinals, to salvage their season. Rams take it. Just about.
LA Chargers @ San Francisco 49ers: 49ers -6.5
The Chargers are the 29th ranked rushing defence and the 49ers run the rock as well as anyone, and now have CMC doing god’s work. This is a pretty bad matchup, statistically and stylistically. The 49ers are 4-4 but look a lot better than their record. In their last game, CMC had a passing, receiving and rushing touchdown. Another couple of weeks of him learning the playbook is not good news for the Chargers.
The Chargers are coming off a nail biter against the Falcons. While I have been higher on the Falcons that most, they aren’t the best barometer of a good team and just lost to the Panthers in TNF. The Chargers are just so beat up and with their star wide receivers (Allen and Williams) looking like they’ll still be out for this game, I am going to ride with the 49ers to get the job done. They 49ers are one of the best defences against the run, so will hopefully shutdown the Chargers’ remaining weapon, Austin Ekeler.
Player Prop Bets & Acca:
One point on each selection and the acca.
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