We are so back, baby. Finally, we have Football returning to our screens to make our weeks even more enjoyable. Today’s issue combines the Thursday opener between the Bills and the Rams, as well as the Sunday week 1 preview. Going forward, Thursday will have it’s usual preview by itself, and I will also be changing up the Tuesday Waiver Wire Targets issue to something a little different, just to keep things spicy.
On the predictions for this week, it’s week 1 so I’ll be keeping the bets to a minimum. It’s hard to know where teams are at with all the changes over the offseason. But we’ll still have a little punt here and there. I love my NAP this week, so the biggest bet of the week will be on that. Shock…
NAP RECORD: 0-0.
CURRENT OVERALL RECORD: 0-0.
PROFIT/LOSS: +/-0 points.
2021 SEASON RECORD: 104-104.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Detroit Lions: Eagles -4.5 (NAP)
Bet: 2 points @ 10/11
2021 Meeting: Eagles won 44-6
Eagles:
2021 Record: 9-8 (6-3 away).
Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 359.9 (14th) // Passing – 200.2 (25th) // Rushing – 159.7 (1st).
Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 328.8 (10th) // Passing – 220.9 (11th) // Rushing – 107.9 (9th).
Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 26.1 (12th) // PPG Allowed – 22.6 (18th).
Turnover Differential: 0 (18th).
Injury Report (Out): Andre Dillard – OT.
Lions:
2021 Record: 3-13-1 (3-5 home).
Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 322.6 (22nd) // Passing – 211.6 (18th) // Rushing – 110.9 (19th).
Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 379.8 (29th) // Passing – 244.7 (24th) // Rushing – 135.1 (28th)
Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 19.1 (8th) // PPG Allowed – 27.5 (31st).
Turnover Differential: -4 (22nd).
Injury Report (Out): Jameson Williams – WR, Halapoulivaati Vaitai – G.
During the week, the Eagles become the team bet on the most to win the NFC Championship, with 15.6% of all bets coming for the men in green. The promising enough year last year, mixed with their stellar draft and strong off-season signings have made them a very appealing bet indeed. They are looking like the strongest team in the NFC East and should get their 2022 campaign off to a flying start here against the Lions. The Eagles were the number one rushing team last season, pounding that rock for almost 160 YPG. QB Jalen Hurts is a prolific runner and is a nice compliment to RBs Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott. They ran all over the Lions last year in their 44-6 drubbing and will look to do the same again here. To make matters worse for Detroit, Hurts now has a new WR1 in the form of AJ Brown. Brown is an out and out stud and will only free up his receiving teammates, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert.
The Lions’ roster is looking much smarter this year, as they look to build on a better second half of the season in 2021. The Hard Knocks hype train is in full effect, but they definitely should be a stronger outfit than the one that lined up last season and their number two pick in the draft is one of the main reasons. Aidan Hutchinson was drafted #2 in April and will look to make an instant impact. The Lions were better against the pass than the run last season, and Hutch should bring on the improvement even more. Unfortunately, to beat the Eagles you need to stop the run, and the Lions haven’t made any major moves to stop that. The Lions will likely have to put up some points to stay with the Eagles, as they were 31st in points allowed last year, but I don’t know if they can. Goff should be solid with his current receiving threats, Hockenson and St.Brown, and DeAndre Swift is in-line to be a top-10 running back, but it’s not going to be enough to stay with a genuine Super Bowl contender in this week one match-up. Eagles -4.5, lock it in.
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons: Over 42.5
Bet: 1 point @10/11
Saints:
2021 Record: 9-8 (6-3 away).
Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 304.5 (28th) // Passing – 187.4 (32nd) // Rushing – 117.1 (15th).
Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 318.2 (7th) // Passing – 224.8 (14th) // Rushing – 93.5 (4th)
Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 21.4 (19th) // PPG Allowed – 19.7 (4th).
Turnover Differential: +7 (9th).
Injury Report (Out): Trevor Penning – OT, Albert Huggins – DT.
Falcons:
2021 Record: 7-10 (2-6 home).
Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 303.8 (29th) // Passing – 218.4 (16th) // Rushing – 85.4 (31st).
Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 364.4 (26th) // Passing – 232.5 (18th) // Rushing – 131.9 (27th)
Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 18.4 (26th) // PPG Allowed – 27.0 (29th).
Turnover Differential: -6 (25th).
Injury Report (Out): Noone of note.
It’s probably not the best idea to look at last year’s stats for either team, as things are so different now. For the Saints, Winston is coming back from his ACL tear, Michael Thomas is finally recovering from his ankle injury, Head Coach Sean Payton has retired, and they have had a good bit of change on the defensive side of the ball as well with Tyrann Mathieu coming across from the Chiefs. They also signed Jarvis Landry and drafted Chris Olave with the 11th pick in the draft. With Kamara still in his prime this looks like a scary offence, if Jameis can get his shit together for an entire season. The Saints dropped 30 on the Falcons in their back yard last year without Winston, but the Falcons won in New Orleans 27-25. The Saints will likely have a top five defence this year, but for the start of the season they will be without safety Marcus Maye, who was arrested journey the week for allegedly pointing a gun at a car full of young women, in fit of road rage… solid. They also just traded DB CJ Gardner-Johnson to the Eagles, to deplete their secondary even more. The D will be good, but it might take a couple of games for the new guys to get up to speed.
On the Falcons side of the ball, their offence has gone through a major overhaul. Matt Ryan is gone to the Colts, Calvin Ridley is suspended, and Russell Gage is gone to the Bucs. But all is not bad. Kyle Pitts is entering into year two, the beast Drake London was drafted with the eight overall pick, and the dynamic Marcus Mariota will be the new starting QB. When Mariota was performing well in his early seasons with the Titans, Falcons HC Artur Smith was their offensive coordinator. The Falcons might actually be ok going forward, but their defence is still one of the worst in the League. They were 29th overall last year and it’s unlikely they will be much better this year.
Both games between these two teams last year were above 50 points. The Saints could score 30 by themselves and I think the Falcons will have some success against their divisional rival. I’m smoking that over 42.5, but only with a small 1-point bet. I wouldn’t hold it against you taking the Saints on the handicap either.
Cleveland Browns @ Carolina Panthers: Panthers -1.5
Bet: 2 points @ 10/11
Browns:
2021 Record: 8-9 (2-6 away).
Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 340.6 (18th) // Passing – 195.3 (27th) // Rushing – 145.4 (4th).
Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 311.5 (5th) // Passing – 202.3 (5th) // Rushing – 109.2 (12th)
Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 20.5 (20th) // PPG Allowed – 21.8 (13th).
Turnover Differential: -3 (20th).
Injury Report (Out): Few Questionable.
Panthers:
2021 Record: 5-12 (2-6 home).
Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 298.9 (30th) // Passing – 195.3 (29th) // Rushing – (20th).
Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 305.9 (2nd) // Passing – 192.1 (4th) // Rushing – (18th)
Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 17.9 (29th) // PPG Allowed – 23.8 (21st).
Turnover Differential: -13 (31st)
Injury Report (Out): Matt Corral – QB.
Oh baby, now this is a game I’m going to be watching with peaked interest. Don’t mind Russell Wilson’s return to Seattle in their opener, Baker Mayfield is facing his old teammates in this major revenge game. And what do we know about Baker Mayfield? He plays his best when his back is against the wall and the whole world is doubting him. Mayfield was quoted saying that he plans to ‘fuck them up’. Oh ho boy, and I think he will. The Panthers were a hot mess offensively last year, but they had binman Darnold under centre and McCaffrey was out. CMC is back and Mayfield is a much better QB than Darnold. Their defence is only going to get better in 2022, and they were still a serious outfit in 2021. Pundit Ryan Clark has CB Jaycee Horn as his number one breakout player in 2022. Horn, who was drafted in the first-round last year, missed most of 2021 with a foot injury, but impressed massively in his three-game spell. The Panthers dominant defence in front of the home ground should get the job done here, but what should we expect from the Browns?
DeShaun Watson returns week 13, so Jacoby Brisset will lead the offence until then. Not ideal if you’re a Browns fan. Amari Cooper also comes across from the Cowboys to lead the receiving group, but it’s fairly light after that. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt will likely be their usually selves, but a running back is sometimes only as good as his offensive line, and the Browns’ O-Line is a little banged up at the minute, with Jack Conklin questionable to line up at the weekend. They should be fine, but it’s still a missing piece of one of their most important puzzles. Myles Garrett leads the line on the other side of the ball, but I’m sure Mayfield will dump the ball off to CMC and keep the big DE at bay (most of the time).
I really like the Panthers’ chances here and the fact that the spread is only -1.5, with them at home, I’m not hesitating in buying some of that stock.
Buffalo Bills @ LA Rams: Bills -2.5
Bet: 0.5 point @ 10/11
Bills:
2021 Record: 11-6 (5-3 away).
Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 381.9 (5th) // Passing – 252.0 (9th) // Rushing – 129.9 (6th).
Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 272.8 (1st) // Passing – 163.0 (1st) // Rushing – 109.8 (13th)
Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 28.4 (3rd) // PPG Allowed – 17.0 (1st).
Turnover Differential: +8 (7th).
Injury Report (Out): N/A.
Rams:
2021 Record: 12-5 (5-3 home).
Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 372.1 (9th) // Passing – 273.1 (5th) // Rushing – 99.0 (25th).
Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 344.9 (17th) // Passing – 241.7 (22nd) // Rushing – 103.2 (6th)
Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 27.1 (8th) // PPG Allowed – 21.9 (15th).
Turnover Differential: +2 (13th).
Injury Report (Out): Van Jefferson – WR.
Von Miller returns to the bright lights of LA to take on his Super Bowl winning teammates. He is being hailed as their savour in the pass rush, so it will be interesting to see how he gets on here. The Bills are coming to town as the current Super Bowl favourites and look all in to make a run at the title this year. Their roster doesn’t really have any holes in it once you get into the middle of the season, but at the moment, their secondary may be the chink in their armour. Star CB Tre White is currently coming back from injury, so rookie Kaiir Elam will have to fill in and match-up with Cooper Kupp or Alan Robinson. Not ideal on your first start. After that, they look pretty solid. They added to their RB room with James Cook and WR Gabe Davis will look to take another step forward this year after an impressive end to the 2021 season. And of course, the big man himself, Josh Allen is the ultimate star and leader to take them all the way. His #1 guy Stefon Diggs will have a tough match-up here against Jalen Ramsey, but his other guys, Davis, Dawson Knox and Isaiah McKenzie should feast. I would expect them to put up big numbers.
I would also expect the Rams to put up big numbers. Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson going up against a weak secondary is a nightmare match-up for Buffalo, but their two star safeties, Poyer and Hyde, should help somewhat. There is also a little uncertainty around Stafford at the moment, with his elbow injury. Some reports are that he is fine, others say contradictory things. But he’s playing, and that’s big. Reports have Ramsey as a little banged up as well and the Rams are down in the O-Line with Andrew Whitworth retiring.
This should be a great game, but I’m going to go with the away team here and back the Bills. I’m not very high on this, as McVay is 5-0 in his season openers, but they seem like the better, healthier team.
All Week 1 Picks (no bets here – just the record):
Buffalo Bills @ LA Rams: Bills -2.5
Full review above.
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans: Texans +7.5
Texans are going 17/0 so they’ll obviously cover the spread here…
Philadelphia Eagles @ Detroit Lions: Eagles -4.5
Full review above.
Piitsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals: Steelers +6.5
The Steelers D will be elite this year. Their offence is looking much better as well with Big Ben gone. Their O-Line is their only worry, but 6.5 points is a lot to be getting.
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Jets: Ravens -7.
Joe Flacco starts for the Jets. Sorry like, but just no.
Cleveland Browns @ Carolina Panthers
Full review above.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Washington Commanders: Over 44.5
Don’t feel strong about either here, but both offences are looking better this year.
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins: Dolphins -3.5
New England reports are not good. Josh McDaniels is gone, and they are trying to implement a new offensive system. They also have a bad record recently down in Miami. Tyreek Hill to slice them open.
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons: Over 42.5
Full review above.
That’s it for now folks. The bets for the games below and the €5 to €500 challenge will be published on Sunday morning.
Still to come…
- San Francisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears
- Las Vegas Raiders @ LA Chargers: Under 52.5
- Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
- Kansas City Chiefs @ Arizona Cardinals
- New York Giants @ Tennessee Titans
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
- Denver Broncos @ Seattle Seahawks
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