Here we go. The best golf tournament of the year is upon us. The one that everyone wants to win. This is generally a good one for punters as well because of it being on the same course every year and it has been kind to the top of the market. The same buckos have good course form every year and no player outside the top 30 in the OWGR has won it since Angel Cabrera in 2009.

We had some big wins in the majors last year (+30.7 points to be exact), so I’ll be following the same format of analysis to see if we can replicate the results. Check it out below.

Current Market Leaders as of 05/04/23 (Boyles – 8 Places):

• Rory McIlroy – 13/2.
• Scottie Scheffler – 7/1.
• Jon Rahm – 9/1.
• Jordan Spieth – 16/1.
• Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas – 18/1.
• Tony Finau, Cameron Smith, Xander Schauffele – 20/1.
• Collin Morikawa, Jason Day – 22/1.
• Dustin Johnson – 25/1.
• Cameron Young – 28/1.
• Brooks Koepka – 30/1.
• Max Homa – 30/1.
• Sungjae Im, Sam Burns – 33/1.
• Matthew Fitzpatrick, Viktor Hovland – 35/1.
• Shane Lowry – 40/1.

General Masters’ Statistics:

• No pre-tournament favourite has won the Masters since Tiger in 2005. Sorry, Rory.
• No rookie has won it since Fuzzy Zoeller. Sorry, Cameron Young.
• No player outside of the Top 30 of the official world rankings has won wince Angel Cabrera in 2009. Sorry Jason Day, Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler, Dustin Johnson and plenty more.
• The last five winners tore up the par fives. Scheffler was -8 on the par fives last year on his way to winning at -10. Matsuyama won with a score of -10 but was -11 on the par fives. Dustin Johnson was also -11 on the par fives on his way to victory in 2020 with a score of -20. Keep going back and you’ll see the same. The leaders of the shots gained on par fives on the PGA Tour this year.
• Patrick Cantlay
• Rory McIlroy
• Joaquin Niemann
• Tony Finau
• Jordan Spieth
• Matthew Fitzpatrick
• Next – Tommy Fleetwood, Sungjae Im, Justin Thomas, Shane Lowry, Bryson DeChambeau, Jason Day.

Past Six Winners (and runners up) of the Masters:

• Scottie Scheffler (Rory McIlroy).
• Hideki Matsuyama (Will Zalatoris).
• Dustin Johnson (Sungjae Im / Cam Smith).
• Tiger Woods (DJ, Brooks, Schauffele).
• Patrick Reed (Rickie Fowler).
• Sergio Garcia (Justin Rose).

Past Masters’ Experience – Last Five Years (2022 – 2017):

• Rory McIlroy – 2^nd, MC, T5, T21, T5.
• Scottie Scheffler – WIN, T18, T19.
• Jon Rahm – T22, T5, T7, T9, 4th.
• Jordan Spieth – MC, T3, T46, T21, 3^rd.
• Patrick Cantlay – T39, MC, T17, T9, MC.
• Justin Thomas – T8, T21, 4^th, T12, T17.
• Tony Finau – T35, T10, T38, T5, T10.
• Cameron Smith – T3, T10, T2, T51, T5.
• Xander Schauffele – MC, T3, T17, T2, T50.
• Collin Morikawa – 5^th, T18, T44, N/A, N/A.
• Jason Day – N/A, MC, MC, T5, T20.
• Dustin Johnson – T12, MC, 1^st, T2, T10.
• Cameron Young – Rookie.
• Brooks Koepka – MC, MC, T7, T2, T11.
• Max Homa – T48, MC, MC, N/A, N/A.
• Sungjae Im – T8, MC, T2, N/A, N/A.
• Sam Burns – M/C, N/A, N/A, N/A, N/A.
• Matthew Fitzpatrick – T14, T34, T46, T21, T38.
• Viktor Hovland – T27, T21, N/A, T32, N/A.
• Shane Lowry – T3, T21, T25, MC, MC.

Form – Past Five Tournaments Played:

• Rory McIlroy – 3^rd, MC, T2, T29, T32. (Win before that).
• Scottie Scheffler – 4th, WIN, T4, T12, WIN.
• Jon Rahm – T31, WD, T39, WIN, 3rd.
• Jordan Spieth – T31, T3, T19, T4, MC.
• Patrick Cantlay – T9, T19, T4, 3^rd, MC.
• Justin Thomas – T10, T60, T21, T20, 4^th.
• Tony Finau – T17, T19, T24, T20, T14.
• Cameron Smith – 29th, 26th, 6^th in LIV.
• Xander Schauffele – T5, T19, T39, T33, T10.
• Collin Morikawa – T28, T13, MC, T6, MC.
• Jason Day – T5, T19, T10, T9, 5^th.
• Dustin Johnson – 7th, 13th, 37th in LIV.
• Cameron Young – 2^nd, T51, T10, T20, 64.
• Brooks Koepka – WIN, 29th, 31^st in LIV.
• Max Homa – T9, T6, T14, 2^nd, T39. (Win before that).
• Sungjae Im – T17, T6, T21, T42, T56.
• Sam Burns – WIN, 6^th, T35, MC, MC.
• Matthew Fitzpatrick – T31, MC, MC, T14, MC.
• Viktor Hovland – T31, T3, T10, T20, T42.
• Shane Lowry – T31, T35, 67, T5, T14.

SG Approach (Top 10 PGA Tour):

1. Tom Hoge.
2. Collin Morikawa.
3. Tony Finau.
4. Jon Rahm.
5. Max Homa.
6. Scottie Scheffler.
7. Rory McIlroy.
8. Rickie Fowler.
9. Xander Schauffele.
10. Luke Donald.

SG Putting (Notables, as Top 10 only featured Burns at 10):

• 10 – Sam Burns.
• 11 – Max Homa.
• 12 – Jon Rahm.
• 15 – Jason Day.
• 20 – Xander Schauffele.
• 23 – Tony Finau.

Selections:

Scottie Scheffler – 1 point EW @ 7/1.

I think you should be pretty safe if you back one of the big three (Scheffler, Rahm, McIlroy), but my gut is telling me Scheffler. He is giving me serious 15/16/17 Jordan Spieth vibes, winning and competing all around him. His win last year and recent form, combined with the fact is he up there in most of the important statistical categories past winners have had, is swinging it for me. He’ll be the first person to win back-to-back Masters since Tiger Woods if he can do it.

Dustin Johnson – 0.5-point EW @ 25/1.

When DJ is on at Augusta, he is on. A previous winner of the tournament, albeit the COVID year that was played in November, he has shone on the Georgia track. His recent transfer to the LIV circuit would be a slight concern, but he has performed there too, and with five top tens in this event, he would be worth a small EW as well (at a decent price too).

Corey Conners – 0.5 point EW @ 40/1.

T10 in 2020, T8 in 2021 and T6 in 2022. The Canadian has been improving every year he has played at Augusta, and he just won the most recent PGA Tour event, the Valero Texas Open. He is 28^th in the World and had a decent finish in the WGC Match Play (T17), before the event in Texas. Couldn’t be ruled out to break through and win his first major. 40/1 makes it even more appealing.

Sepp Straka 0.25-point EW @ 200/1.

Who doesn’t love a huge longshot. Alternatively, you could back him to finish in the top 20 at 5/1. He finished T30 last year in his first start at Augusta.

Honourable Mention:

Jason Day

Third in scoring on the PGA Tour this year, the Aussie has finally made his resurgence. He has a poor recent record at Augusta, which would usually throw me off, but those results were more down to his general form and not the track. His record at Augusta before that is a T5 and a T20. Still not great, but he seems to be back, and his record on par 5’s is worth considering.