We are almost up to one hundred views per article. TYSM. Coming up in article four are my predictions for MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, Offensive Player of the Year, Comeback Player of the Year, Offensive Rookie of the Year and Defensive Rookie of the Year. Let’s get down to business.
MVP – Josh Allen
Arguably the strongest arm in the league with insane athletic abilities with his legs, Josh Allen is one of the game’s biggest stars. During this offseason, Allen put pen to paper on a six-year, $258,034,000 contract with the Buffalo Bills, including a $16,500,000 signing bonus, $150,000,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $43,005,667, according to numerous sources. A monster salary for a monster talent. But it wasn’t always looking as promising for the young QB from the University of Wyoming. Allen had a shaky start to his NFL career in 2018 with 2074 yards, 10TDs and 12 INTs, with a comp% of 52.81. The 7th overall pick’s play underwent careful scrutiny and as often happens, the media, ESPN to be exact, labelled it as ‘below average’. In 2019, Allen made huge strides throwing for 3089 yards, 20TDs and 9INTs, with a comp% of 58.79. In 2020, he made an even greater leap throwing for 4544 yards, 37TDs and 10INTs, with a comp% of 69 (nice). Allen also rushed for 421 yards and 8TDs. Expect Allen to improve further in 2021, as he will have a whole year under his belt with Stefon Diggs and play caller, Brian Daboll who was also named NFL Assistant Coach of the Year in 2020.
The MVP award is a massive narrative story and Allen is already being talked about in media circles as a standout pick for MVP.
Honourable mention – Patrick Mahomes
- I picked him in Fantasy so I kind of hope its him.
Deep Outsider (>40/1) – Jalen Hurts @ 50/1
- I am all in on Hurts. See article one for core reasons on why I think the Eagles QB is ready for the big time.
Additionally, Dak Prescott at 17/1 for MVP is a tasty looking proposition.
Defensive Player of the Year – Myles Garrett
If you have read Issue 3 you will know I have predicted the Browns to go to Super Bowl LVI and lose to the Buccaneers. Myles Garrett is one of the main catalysts for the Browns continued leap forward this year. Garrett was first-team All-Pro in 2020, logging 12 sacks in 14 games, despite battling COVID-19. In 2019, he had 10 sacks in 10 games, and 13.5 sacks in 16 games in 2018 . If Garrett can stay healthy for the entirety of the season, he should take down the greatest individual defensive prize there is.
Aaron Donald is now 30 and striving for an unprecedented fourth Defensive Player of the Year. He is constantly double teamed, so he might not compare statistically with the numbers a healthy Garrett will put up.
Over in Pittsburgh, TJ Watt and the Steelers are having a small bit of a tiff in agreeing his contract extension. Will this be a distraction for Watt?
Honourable mention – Derwin James
A safety hasn’t won the prize since Troy Polamalu won it in 2010, but Derwin James is no ordinary safety. James was named first-team All-Pro in his rookie season, so expect big things from the Chargers safety as he returns from injury.
Deep Outsider (>40/1) – Fred Warner @ 60/1
- The 49ers should be very decent on defence this year and Warner will be a key piece of the niners front seven.
Offensive Player of the Year – Christian McCaffrey
This is a bit of a silly award, as a QB generally wins MVP and the QB position is on the offensive side of the ball (‘no way’ I hear you say), so why don’t they win Offensive Player of the Year as well? They do sometimes, but this award is generally given to a non-QB player when they achieve something special. Derrick Henry won it last year with his 2000-yard rushing season and Michael Thomas in 2019, when he logged the most receptions ever in a season.
Expect McCaffrey to bounce back strong in 2021 and potentially repeat his antics in 2019m going for over 1000 yards rushing and receiver. He will be a monster in fantasy and should snag the Offensive Player of the Year prize. He is also the bookies favourite.
Honourable mention – Alvin Kamara
With Michael Thomas out until at least week seven, Kamara will have to put the Saints on his back. The Saints have the number four offensive line, according to PFF, so expect them to support Kamara well in his bid for Offensive Player of the Year.
Deep Outsider (>40/1) – Zeke @ 40/1
The two-time league leader in rushing is expected to bounce back big time this year, now that the Cowboys have sorted out their injury plagued offensive line, and Zeke’s best friend, Dak is back.
Comeback Player of the Year – Dak Prescott
Dak could easily win MVP this year, but I think it’s more likely he wins comeback player of the year. Although, as I said the MVP award is a narrative piece and the Cowboys are the most discussed team by far on USA media. After the Cowboys’ first four games in 2020 and prior to his injury, Prescott has completed a league-high 137 passes, giving him an average of 34.25 completions per game. If he continued on that pace, he would have ended up with 548 completions for the year, shattering Drew Brees’ record of 471 in a single season. He was on pace to shatter other record as well, such as the passing yards total. Below is a chart from ProFootballReference showing the most yards ever over the first four games in a single season. Dak is up for big things again this year if he can stay healthy.
- Dak Prescott, 2020 – 1,657
- Kurt Warner, 2000 – 1,557
- Tom Brady, 2011 – 1,553
- Patrick Mahomes, 2018 – 1,510
Honourable mention – Jameis Winston
You’ll know from Issue 1 that I think Winston will bounce back huge this year with Brees out of the way and him being in Sean Payton’s offence.
Deep Outsider (>40/1) – N/A.
No pick here.
Offensive Rookie of the Year – Mac Jones
This is an interesting pick for a number of reasons. Jones is going into the New England setup with the greatest coach of all time in Bill Belichick, so doesn’t have to deal with a mediocre setup or have to wait for a new coach to earn his stripes and instil his culture on the team . Jones is also confirmed as the day one starter now that Cam Newton has departed, so will be building his stats from the very beginning unlike Justin Fields and Trey Lance who will have to wait for their moment to shine. Jones is super accurate and has decent weapons as a result of New England’s offseason spending. The Patriots are always in the media as one of the most recognisable teams from a large market so expect to them and Jones to get plenty of airtime.
You’re probably wondering why I haven’t gone for Trevor Lawrence, as he was the number one pick, and the most hyped one since Andrew Luck. But he just seems too obvious a choice (amazing analysis I know). The Jaguars will most likely be muck as well. Paddy Power also price boosted him to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, so that means it’s obviously not going to happen.
Honourable mention – Kyle Pitts/Najee Harris.
I really can’t decide between these two for honourable mention so let’s go with both. They are both the best rookies at their position and immediate starters for their teams, where their presence is needed.
Deep Outsider (>40/1) – Terrance Marshall Jr @ 60/1
PFF’s highest graded wide receiver for the preseason games. They predict he will play a significant role in the Panthers offence.
Defensive Rookie of the Year – Micah Parsons
Parsons is the favourite to win this prize, so real hot take out of me. He is filling a massive need for the Cowboys at the line-backer position, as the Cowboys defence ranked 24th in 2020 according to PFF. Parsons has the potential to be an instant impact player as his college pedigree should translate well into the pro ranks. At Penn State in 2019, Parsons won the Butkus Line-backer of the Year award and was Consensus All-American and first-team All-Big Ten.
Honourable mention – Joe Tryon-Shoyinka
As mentioned in Issue 3, Tyron-Shoyinka has put on a clinic so far in the preseason. I know the preseason doesn’t mean much but the reports from camp are raving about his potential.
Deep Outsider (>40/1) – N/A
No pick here but Tryon-Shoyinka is 22/1 so definitely not favourite.
Happy punting.
P.s I would have Kyle Shanahan of the 49ers as my Coach of the Year, narrowly beating out Sean McDermott of the Bills.
J.
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