Week seven’s Thursday Night Football match-up takes us up to the Dawg Pound for the meeting between two AFC rivals, the Denver Broncos and Cleveland Browns. If this match had been played in week 4, it would have been a showdown of titanic proportions. Now, it’s just two beat up and washed-up fighters trying to stay relevant. My prediction for the Browns going to the Super Bowl is slipping away by the injury. Maybe all of these critical injuries are because I backed them for the Super Bowl? Is this my special power? Does anyone need me to do some dirty work for their fantasy match? HMU. Anyway, where was I?

Unfortunately for us, the story of this week’s match-up is injuries. The Browns are without their driving force – the dual threat of Chubb and Hunt. They are also missing, Baker Mayfield, star rookie Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and potentially two of their starting offensive linemen. It’s not much more promising for the Broncos, as they are missing starting line-backer Alexander Johnson, wide receivers KJ Hamler and Jerry Jeudy, and star pass rusher Bradley Chubb. On a positive note, we get to see Case Keenum lace it up as a starter for the first time since 2019…

Although this game isn’t what it would be without the injuries, it still has huge implications for either team. Both teams started strong, with the Broncos starting 3-0 and the Browns winning three in a row. Slipping to 3-4 would be mentally destroying for the locker room and devastating for the morale of the fans. This will be a nerve-wracking game for both teams, but that might mean some value for us punters. Let’s see what the stats say.

Broncos:

• The Broncos have the 13th ranked offence and the 8th ranked defence.
• They have the 12th ranked passing offence and defence.
• On average, the Broncos are scoring 21.0 points per game and conceding 18.3 points per game.
• Teddy Two Gloves & Co. are passing for 271.2 yards per game and rushing for 117.5 yards.
• The Broncos defence are allowing 242.5 passing yards per game and 85.5 rushing yards.
• In fantasy terms, the Broncos defence is ranked 4th against RBs, 15th against WRs, 9th against TEs and 3rd against QBs.
• Last week against the Raiders, Teddy Bridgewater was hit 17 times and sacked five times. He threw a season high three interceptions and also lost a fumble. To Teddy’s credit, he did throw for 334 yards and three touchdowns.
• The Broncos are 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven games against the Browns.
• They have won 12 of the last 13 against the Browns.
• Denver is 11-3 against the spread in their last 14 Thursday games.
• The Broncos will be without a number of key players such as, Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler, Albert Okwuegbunam, Bradley Chubb and starting line-backers, Alexander Johnson and Josey Jewell.

Browns:

• The Browns have the 9th ranked offence and the 5th ranked defence.
• They have the 24th ranked passing offence and the top ranked rushing offence.
• On average, the Browns are scoring 26.5 points per game and conceding 25.2 points.
• Mayfield & Co. are passing for 246.7 yards per game and rushing for 168.5 yards.
• The Browns defence is allowing 243.7 passing yards per game and 87.0 rushing yards.
• In Fantasy terms, the Cleveland defence is ranked 2nd against RBs, 27th against WRs, 3rd against TEs and 30th against QBs.
• The Cleveland defence has given up 84 points in the last two games.
• Case Keenum hasn’t started a game since 2019. He is 1-7 in his last eight games as a starter.
• The Browns are absolutely riddled with injuries, with 20 players on the injury report – Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb, Jarvis Landry, Kareem Hunt, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and offensive tackles, Jedrick Wills Jr and Jack Conklin are questionable. Odell Beckham Jr will be a game time decision.

Both teams are super similar at the moment in terms of statistics, with the Browns ahead in the run game. They both started 3-0 and are now in a mini freefall. They are both riddled with injuries on both sides of the ball, but Cleveland is down more of their high calibre players. The handicap has come in from -4.5 Browns to -1, meaning even the bookies don’t really know who’s going to take home the bacon. My reasoning for the over hitting is that both defences are really strong against the run, so I’m expecting both QBs to go to the air, slowing down the pace of the clock. Cleveland is vulnerable against the passing game, with their defence ranking very low against QBs and WRs. They have also conceded 84 points in their last two games. For the Browns, Case Keenum is no slouch. I know his record in his last eight games as a starter is bad, but he did nail that pass to Diggs in the Minneapolis Miracle to win them the 2018 NFC divisional playoff game for the Vikings. That took guts. Courtland Sutton is the heartbeat of the Broncos passing offence, so I think he’ll go well tonight. It’s so hard to call a winner, the Browns are the better team but they are so beat up. If you twisted my arm, I’d go Broncos. No, Browns. No, Broncos. Broncos…