Week five is upon us and with a quarter of the regular season almost over, I bring some bonus content with me today. You’re welcome. After the usual review of four games, I have a little surprise up my sleeve that I hope people will get involved with throughout the year as a bit of a laugh. Before that, let’s look at the usual four game review.

Miami Dolphins @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bucs -9.5 (NAP)

Dolphins:

• The Phins have the 31st ranked offence and the 24th ranked defence.
• Their passing offence is ranked 30th and their rushing offence is ranked 28th.
• The Dolphins have averaged just over half the points scored per game this season (15.5) compared to the Buccaneers (30.5).
• Miami have scored less than 20 points in three out of four games this season.
• The Dolphins are passing for 199.5 yards per game and rushing for 78.3 yards.
• They are allowing 268.5 yards passing per game and 136.8 yards rushing yards.
• Jacoby Brissett’s 4.9 pass yards per attempt this season is the lowest among QBs with 100+ pass att. No other QB has averaged fewer than 6.0 yards per attempt.
• Last week against the Colts, Brissett threw for under 200 yards and Miami had 35 total rushing yards. The Colts have the 8th ranked defence.
• Last week against the Colts, Miami allowed Carson Wentz to complete 75% of his passes. Jonathan Taylor had over 100 rushing yards and a rushing TD.

Buccaneers:

• The Bucs have the 9th ranked offence and 20th ranked defence.
• Their passing offence is ranked 2nd and rushing offence is ranked 30th.
• The Bucs are passing for 339 yards per game and rushing for 72.3 yards per game.
• They are allowing 341.5 yards passing per game and 47.5 yards rushing per game.
• Last week against the Patriots, Brady had his worst game of the season. He completed 51.2% of his passes for 269 passing yards and zero passing TDs. It was lashing..
• Last week against the Patriots, big Lenny Fournette had 20 carries for 91 rushing yards and had three catches for 47 receiving yards. Best stats of the season.
• The Bucs D did allow Mac Jones to complete 77.5% of his passes for 275 passing yards but did sack him four times and intercepted him once.
• Carlton Davis, Sean Murphy-Bunting, Gronk, Antoine Winfield Jr. and Patrick O’Connor are out.

The Dolphins have been such a let down this year after a promising 2020 season under Head Coach Brian Flores. The Bucs have cooled down significantly after their hot start to the season, losing to the Rams and narrowly beating the Patriots in Foxborough over the last two weeks on the road. This is a get right game for Brady and I expect them to dominate at home. Brissett will move the ball easier than he has in other games, but it won’t be enough. The Bucs are a brick wall against the run, so it will fall completely on Brissett’s shoulders. This could be a blow-out game, but I think Bruce Arian’s will look to get the run game more involved, particularly Big Lenny, which will run out the clock a bit quicker and reduce the potential for a monstrous victory. At home however, I still expect the Bucs to cover the -9.5 spread.

Chicago Bears @ Las Vegas Raiders: Raiders -5.5

Bears:

• The Bears have the 32nd ranked offence and the 12th ranked defence.
• They have the 32nd ranked passing offence and 11th ranked rushing offence. Note: David Montgomery is now out.
• The Bears are scoring, on average, 16 points per game and conceding 22.8 points per game.
• They are passing for 152 yards per game and rushing for 122.8 yards per game.
• The Bears are allowing 268.3 yards passing per game and 112 yards rushing.
• The Bears are 0-2 on the road.
• Last week against the Lions, Justin Fields threw 11-17 for 209 yards and no TDs with one INT. The Lions are in the bottom three of defensive rankings.
• The Bears beat the lions 24-14, but in the first half the Lions made three trips to the red zone and didn’t score anything.
• As well as RB, Monty, DT Akiem Hicks is also out.

Raiders:

• The Raiders have the 7th ranked offence and the 19th ranked defence.
• They have the 3rd ranked passing offence and the 27th ranked rushing offence.
• The Raiders are scoring, on average, 26 points per game and conceding 25 points per game.
• They are passing for 349.8 yards per game and rushing for 80.5 yards per game.
• The defence is allowing 241.8 yards passing per game and 132.3 rushing per game.
• Last week against the Chargers, statistically Carr had his worst game of the season, albeit against a very stingy Chargers passing defence, throwing for 21/34 and 196 passing yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT.
• Vegas only rushed the ball for 48 yards last week against the Chargers.

While the 28-14 loss to the Chargers last week may look bad for the Raiders, I don’t think it’s as bad as it seems. The Raiders made a serious resurgence in the third quarter last Monday, outscoring the Chargers 14-0, but it wasn’t enough to counteract the slow start. They also have three wins this season, two coming against decent opposition in the form of the Ravens and Steelers (arguably decent..). As highlighted in the stats, the Raiders rushed the ball for 48 yards against one of the worst run defences in league, which is how you beat the Chargers. Unfortunately for the Raiders, they had to commit to the passing game with Josh Jacobs coming back from his various injuries. This week is different, Jacobs is the healthiest he has been in weeks and Carr can expose the Chicago passing defence, which is the chink in their armour. I like the Raiders here to bounce back and get the win at home, covering the 5.5 spread.

New Orleans Saints @ Washington Football Team: Saints win and over 35.5

Saints:

• The Saints have the 28th ranked offence and 11th ranked defence. These are NFL.com stats but Football Outsiders DVOA has them as 2nd.
• They have the 31st ranked passing offence and 7th ranked rushing defence.
• New Orleans are scoring, on average, 23.5 points per game and conceding 17.3 points per game. If you take out their game against Carolina, the Saints averaging 29 points per game on offense.
• They are passing for 156.3 yards per game and rushing for 132.8 yards per game.
• The defence is allowing 294.5 yards passing yards per game and 66 rushing yards per game.
• Last week against the Giants, the Saints blew a double-digit lead with less than 7 minutes remaining.
• New Orleans’s offense has been very good on third down, ranking sixth in the league and second in red zone-scoring rate.
• The defence has also been really solid on third down, ranking 10th on third down and has the best red zone-scoring rate in the NFL.
• Jameis Winston has a completion % 64.0, 153.3 passing yards per game, 8 TDs with 2 INTs and a 106.4 passer rating. The low passing yards per game has been down to game plan, he hasn’t attempted more than 23 passes per game.
• The Saints are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine games as a favourite.

WFT:

• The Football Team have the 20th ranked offence and the 28th ranked defence.
• They have the 19th ranked passing offence and 20th ranked rushing offence.
• Washington is scoring, on average, 25.3 points per game and conceding 30.5 points per game.
• WFT are passing for 243.3 yards per game and rushing for 103.3 yards.
• Their defence are allowing 307 passing yards per game and 118.5 yards rushing.
• Antonio Gibson is nursing an injury and on the questionable list but is expected to play.
• Taylor Heinicke has a completion % of 68.9, 279.3 passing yards per game, 7 TDs with 3 INTs and 103.9 passer rating.
• Taylor Heinicke has been sacked 3 times this season, which is tied fewest among QBs with 3+ starts.
• In both of WFT’s two losses, they failed to cover the spread and were outgained by at least 165 total yards in each contest.

Not all 2-2 records are created equal – The Saints have beaten the Patriots and Packers, while squandering a double-digit lead late in the fourth quarter against the Giants (very unlike Sean Payton and the Saints). The WFT have beaten the extremely poor Falcons and fluctuating Giants. Heinicke has been really good for the WFT but will face stiff competition today against the Saints’ front seven. On the other side of the ball, Washington’s defence has been horrendous in 2021 (which was not expected after their stellar 2020 campaign), and Winston’s only bad game and the Saints only large defeat came against the strong Panthers’ rush defence. Both defences have been strong against the run, so this game could go to the air and Winston could start dealing, which is leaning me towards the over. I also think the Saints will bounce back this week, so I am going to combine the win and over at evens money. The combination odds mean we can remove the Saints minus handicap and lower the points total and still get even money. Tashte.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers: Panthers -2.5

Eagles:

• The Eagles have the 10th ranked offence and 14th ranked defence. Although, according to PFF the Eagles pass defence is 31st in pass coverage and 28th in pass rush.
• They are 10th in both passing and rushing offence.
• Philly are the only team ranked in the top 10 in total offense that has a losing record this season. This is down to them playing high-octane (Muricaaaaa) offences and getting into shootouts – Chiefs and Cowboys. They also beat the Falcons in week one, 32-6.
• Philly are scoring, on average, 23.5 points per game and conceding 26.5 points.
• They are passing for 291.8 yards per game and rushing for 122.8 yards
• The Eagle’s defence is allowing 217.3 passing yards per game and 150.3 yards rushing.
• Jalen Hurts has 1,393 passing and rush yards total, 7 pass TDs with 2 INTs and a 101.1 passer rating. He also has 1 rush TD.
• The Eagles will be without starting right tackle, Lane Johnson.

Panthers:

• The Panthers are the 14th ranked offence and the 3rd ranked defence.
• They have the 9th ranked passing offence and the 19th ranked rushing offence.
• Carolina is scoring, on average, 24.3 points per game and conceding 16.5 points per game.
• They are passing for 297.3 yards per game and rushing for 107.5 yards.
• The Panther’s defence is allowing 181.3 yards passing per game and 95 yards rushing.
• Darnold is averaging 36.5 pass attempts per game, with passing yards totals of 279, 305, 304 and 301.
• Per PFF, D.J. Moore has the best matchup of the Panthers WRS with a 68.2 matchup advantage.
• The Panthers are missing three defensive starters this week, in star LB Shaq Thompson, Jaycee Horn and Juston Burris.
• Sam Darnold has five rushing TDs this season.

This game could be a close one, but I think the combination of Carolina’s defence and Darnold’s strong match-up against the Eagles weaker secondary will prove too much today for the Eagles to overcome. Hurts is improving as the week’s go on but has played some seriously weak defences so far this year, in the form of the Falcons and Chiefs. They also lost at home to the 49ers, who do have a strong defence. Darnold is running the ball really well and is actually on track to smash Cam Newton’s single season rushing TD record of 14 so, I like him and the Panthers to win a close contest at home and cover the -2.5 spread.