Right. We are going to knock these two out fairly pronto as the Ballymore winner will likely be determined by who doesn’t run in the Supreme and decides to go for this, and the same for the Brown Advisory with who does or doesn’t go for the Turners. The Ballymore is usually a good thing for punters, with the likes of Bob Olinger, Envoi Allen and Samcro taking home the spoils over the last few years. The Brown Advisory, formally known as the RSA, is a cracking three-mile grade one chase that has brought us some of the best chasers around, with the likes of Monkfish, Champ and Presenting Percy winning in recent years.

Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle – 1:30pm March 16th

The grade one Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle over 2m5f kicks off day two of The Festival and has put some serious horses on the map over the last few years. Before we get into how the field is looking for this year, some interesting stats are listed below, which might perk you up.

• The favourite has won three of the last four years, with City Island at 8/1 in 2019 being the only outlier.
• Willie Mullins hasn’t trained the winner since Yorkhill in 2016.
• Every winner since 2015 have won their last two starts at least.
• Since 2013, every winner has been six years old.
• Eight of the last ten winners have won a graded hurdle.
• Nine of the last ten winners have had a Racing Post rating of at least 154.
• Nine of the last ten winners have at least three runs over hurdles.

Sir Gerhard also tops the market here with a price of 7/4, that is sure to drop massively should he declare for the race. He will likely go off at odds on, and rightly so. No one has a clue what Willie Mullins will do with Dysart Dynamo and Sir Gerhard, so I’m not even going to try and predict it. I do hope that Sir Gerhard goes here, as this will be a sure thing, but winning the Supreme will not, given the standard of competition. Connections have complete faith in him staying the 2m5f trip, and it is only bound to suit his jumping more. 7/4 in NRMB markets is a nice price and it’s no harm to get on that now before declarations come out. He is a seven-year-old and does only have two runs over hurdles, but he should buck those trends here.

Constitutional Hill at 5/2 is next up in the market but is definitely going for the Supreme, so you can ignore him for this. As mentioned, Dysart Dynamo (5/1) and Sir Gerhard will be split, but I will be backing Dysart Dynamo should he go here.

The Gordon Elliot trained Ginto is also on 5/1, having won all three starts over hurdles. His most recent victory came in the grade one Lawlor’s of Naas on January 2nd, where Jack Kennedy steered him home in what looked like slow-motion stuff. His two other wins came in the grade two Navan Novice Hurdle in December and a maiden hurdle in November, also in Navan. To be fair, he has the graded form, is six year’s old and has at least three runs over hurdles. He wouldn’t be a bad e/w bet now, while his odds are still 5/1, but he just wouldn’t be my cup of tea.

Henry de Bromhead’s up and comer Journey With Me is next at 6/1. He hasn’t operated in graded company yet, but he has won his first two runs over hurdles. The hype increased massively when he beat Kilcruit in his maiden hurdle at Leopardstown in December. We know that form has been knocked slightly as Kilcruit was definitely not on form that day, but he still did nothing wrong. He definitely likes soft ground, so we’ll see what happens with that on the Wednesday of The Festival. At the moment, and I stress at the moment, the weather looks ok from now until the race. The lack of runs in graded company would be a negative with me, but much more astute pundits say he is improving well and will only get better with more runs.

Rounding out the single figure prices you have the Paul Nicholls’ trained Stage Star, who won impressively in the grade one Challow Hurdle in Newbury. He beat Gringo D’aubrelle that day by 10 1/2 lengths, who was also dispatched by Dysart Dynamo in the Moscow Flyer. Not a bad old pony and he should be in the mix for at least a place.

• Jack’s pick: Sir Gerhard/Dysart Dynamo. 7/4 & 5/1.
• Dan’s pick: Sir Gerhard/Dysart Dynamo. 7/4 & 5/1.

Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase – 2:10pm March 16th

The Brown Advisory is a cracking race and a good look at some future gold cup horses. Last year, Monkfish dominated this race for his second Cheltenham success in as many years after winning the Albert Bartlett in 2020. There is certainly a mixed bag when it comes to the winners, but generally it is a seven- or eight-year-old that takes home the 3m80y contest. Some interesting stats can be found below.

• Five of the last eight winners won on their previous run (out of the other three, two were second and one fell).
• Nine of the last ten winners have had a Racing Post rating of at least 160.
• Nine of the last ten winners are either seven or eight years old (seven of that ten were seven years old).
• Each of the last five winners had at least a second place at The Festival the previous year.

Galopin Des Champs heads the market at 5/6, but Mullins has all but confirmed that he is going to go for the shorter Turners Chase instead. He can therefore be ruled out of this preview. Bravemansgame is next at 7/4, and the Paul Nicholls trained gelding hasn’t put a foot wrong all season. He is unbeaten over fences, which included a wildly impressive win in a handicap chase in Newbury on Feb 12th. He gave away mountains of weight that day and still won rather impressively. He also took home a grade two chase in Kempton on Stephen’s day, beating Ahoy Senor in the process. He quickened away lovely after jumping the last and jumped exceptionally. He is regarded as the best jumping novice around, which has been described as ‘sexual’ by David Mullins. But with all the success a lot of pundits are still picking holes. He was third in last year’s Ballymore at 2m5f and didn’t stay up the hill at all. He is obviously much better over the bigger obstacles, but all of his wins have come on flat faster tracks. A lot of experts are willing to take him on, including Barry Geraghty and Tony Keenan, amongst others. However, successful amateur jockey Mikey Fogarty who rides out for Willie described Bravesmangame as ‘bombproof’ and he doesn’t see him been beaten. He is probably worthy to be favourite, but there may be better value further down the market.

Lucinda Russell’s Ahoy Senor is currently at 9/2 and has looked really promising on his last three runs. He has two grade two wins and a second behind Bravemansgame in the grade one Kauto Star Novices chase. He was beaten by 7 1/2 lengths that day but by all accounts should come on a lot from the run. An interesting prospect.

Following close after in the market is L’Homme Presse at 5/1. Venetia Williams has trained this beaut to four wins on the trot, including a 21L grade one win at Sandown on February 5th and a 10L grade two win at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. Some impressive performances but they were all over the shorter trip of around the 2m4f mark. Jockey Charlie Deutsch said he has plenty left in reserve after his Cheltenham success, so he would certainly have a chance should he go here, but it’s looking like he will turn up in the Turners for a huge showdown between Bob Olinger and Galopin Des Champs. I like the look of L’Homme Presse a lot and he would be my selection should he go for this race.

Capodanno is next at 7/1. He unseated his rider last time out but has a nice second to Bob Olinger in a 2m4f contest in Punchestown on January 16th. He is looking like Willie’s top prospect for this race, so he certainly has a chance.

One other horse to note, at the prices, is Beacon Edge. Unlike the majority of the others, he has some really good course form, finishing fourth in last year’s Stayers Hurdle by 5 1/2 lengths behind Flooring Porter. He also has been decent this season, finishing second behind Farouk D’alene in a grade two novice chase in Navan on February 22nd. The ground was heavy that day so it may have taken it out of him, but at 16/1 he wouldn’t be a bad e/w shout. I definitely wouldn’t rule Gaillard Du Mesnil out of a place should either.

• Jack’s pick: L’Homme Presse 5/1. Beacon Edge E/W 16/1 if LHP doesn’t run.
• Dan’s pick: Bravemansgame 7/4.

J.

Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

• Jack’s pick: Sir Gerhard/Dysart Dynamo. 9/4.
• Dan’s pick: Constitutional Hill (Nap of day one) 2/1.

Sporting Life Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase

• Jack’s pick: Haut En Couleurs 6/1 E/W.
• Dan’s pick: Edwardstone 2/1.

Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy

• Jack’s pick: Honeysuckle 1/2.
• Dan’s pick: Head to the Mill House Bar, order a pint of stout and give the mare a shout.

Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle

• Jack’s pick: Martello Sky: 10/1 E/W.
• Dan’s pick: Queen’s Brook 9/1 E/W.