Alright y’all, I have to start this issue with an apology. Last night I published the week 10 review, and it simply wasn’t up to standard. I got most of the game locations wrong. Google presented the overview of games with home and away set like we view games in Europe. Still, it was sloppy on my part. I threw a few interceptions and fumbled a few goal line touches, but we live and learn, and I sincerely apologise. And what better way to get back on the horse, than reviewing tonight’s game in Foxboro… see what I did there?

Week eleven’s TNF serves us up a rematch of one of the most famous Super Bowls in history, Super Bowl LI, where the New England Patriots came back from a 28-3 deficit against the Atlanta Falcons to snatch the game in overtime. A lot has changed since then, but some things stay the same. The Patriots will win and Big Ole Billy won’t even crack a smile.

Both teams are in very different places with their seasons. The Patriots are seeking their fifth straight win, while the Falcons are licking their wounds after a 40-point drubbing by the Cowboys. The Patriots offence has been absolutely electric over the last four games, ranking first in points per game with 37.5, and second in yards per game with 407. The have defeated some solid opposition in that four-game span as well, taking down the Browns, Panthers, Chargers and Jets. Well, three good teams. They are establishing themselves as a real threat in the AFC and will definitely be around, come the new year.

The Falcons are a different story, but certainly not out of playoff contention. Currently, they sit tenth in the NFC with a 4-5 record but are yet to win a game in Mercedes Benz Stadium. Their one ‘home’ win came on their trip to London. They are so hard to get a grasp on, as one week they beat the Saints away and the next they get slammed by the Cowboys. When Ryan plays well, they seem to perform. But can he do it against a stout New England defence?

Patriots:

• Current Record: 6-4 (4-0 away).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 356.2 (15th) // Passing – 241.7 (14th) // Rushing – 114.5 (16th).
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 328.0 (6th) // Passing – 220.1 (8th) // Rushing – 107.9 (14th).
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 27.5 (6th) // PPG Allowed – 17.7 (2nd).
• Turnover differential: +3 (9th).

Falcons:

• Current Record: 4-5 (1-3 home).
• Offence (Yards Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 324.0 (25th) // Passing – 241.3 (15th) // Rushing – 82.9 (29th).
• Defence (Yards Allowed Per Game, ESPN): Overall – 368.3 (22nd) // Passing – 246.2 (17th) // Rushing – 122.1 (21st)
• Points Per Game Stats, ESPN: PPG Scored – 19.8 (25th) // PPG Allowed – 29.2 (31st)
• Turnover differential: -5 (26th)

As you can see from the stats, the Patriots are streets ahead in both points scored and points allowed. They are top six in both, while the Falcons are 25th or worse in both. To make matters worse for the Falcons, the Patriots are 4-0 away from home.

The Falcons are only scoring 16.3 points per game at home, which is right around what the Patriots are conceding per game (17.7). Cordarrelle Patterson is also looking like he could miss the game, which will make it even less unlikely that the Falcons will hit that PPG total. For that reason, I like the under 47 points to hit.

Matt Ryan has been so hit or miss this season, either completely balling out or being a complete failure. I really don’t see him achieving the former against a team that he has some serious demons with. Under 250.5 yards is a lock.

I’m not that confident about the player props, as you just never know who Belichick is going to favour on any given day, but I do like Damien Harris to grab a touchdown. He had scored six in the last five, prior to missing the Browns’ game, but now Rhamondre Stevenson is cooking, which has thrown a serious spanner in the works. Even still, I like Harris to grab a tuddie anytime.

Finally, I am going with the Kyle Pitts under. Belichick gets the best kick ever from ruining rookies’ lives, so I think he’ll make a point tonight, shutting down the Falcons number one target. The Patriots are also the #2 defence against TEs, in fantasy stats.

J.

CURRENT RECORD: 39-47